陆川铁锅毒铁锅:中国人的生活质量12年来不曾改变

中国的迅速崛起开始于邓小平30年前实施的经济改革。在盖洛普要求中国人对其生活质量进行评估的12年里，增长的速度没有放缓多少。

Since 1999, China's GDP growth has averaged about 10%, falling to a "mere" 9.1% in 2009 amid the global recession before rebounding to double digits in 2010. The country's economic expansion has been so torrid in recent years that Chinese officials have devoted considerable effort to slowing growth in some sectors lest they overheat.

自1999年以来，中国的平均GDP增长率在10%左右，期间只在2009年全球经济衰退的时候降到了9.1%，2010年又重新回到两位数。几年来中国的经济扩张速度近乎狂热，而为了避免经济过热，中国的官员们也想法设法来减缓经济增长速度。

In 2010, China's estimated per-capita GDP (adjusted for purchasing power parity) was $7,536 -- about 3½ times as high as it was in 1999. However, the increase seems to have had little effect on one of Gallup's most basic wellbeing indicators: life evaluations, which have remained relatively consistent over the last 12 years. Specifically, Gallup asks respondents to rate their lives on a 0-to-10 "ladder" scale based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving scale. The average life ratings in China have been stalled just below 5.0 since 1999.

2010年，中国的的人均GDP（以购买力平价法计算）是7536美元，是1999年的3.5倍。然而，这一增长似乎对于盖洛普最为基础的幸福指标——生活质量评估，没有任何影响。12年来这一指标一直没有较大变化。详细的说，盖洛普让受访者在0到10的梯状量尺中选择一个数字来评估他们的生活质量，这一调查采用的是“坎特里尔自我定位奋斗量尺”方法。自1999年以来，中国在该项指标的得分一直低于5.0 。

China's 2010 overall average rating of 4.7 places it below most other countries surveyed in East Asia and Southeast Asia that same year. The average current life evaluation was higher than 6.0 in the region's most economically advanced countries: Singapore (6.5), Japan (6.1), and South Korea (6.1). But several Asian countries with estimated per-capita incomes lower than China's also posted higher average life ratings. In fact, among all East and Southeast Asian countries surveyed last year, only Mongolia and Cambodia had average ratings on par with or lower than China's.

2010年中国总的平均得分在4.7，低于东亚和东南亚的大多数国家同年的得分。这一区域内经济最为发达的国家的生活质量评估得分都超过6.0，其中，新加坡为6.5，日本和韩国均为6.1 。但是一些人均收入比中国低的国家仍然在生活质量评估上你比中国高。事实上，去年，在所有受调查的东亚和东南亚国家中，只有蒙古和柬埔寨得分与中国相近或者低于中国。1

Does income matter for life ratings?

Why haven't average life evaluations climbed more notably among Chinese over the past 12 years of skyrocketing economic growth? One hypothesis is that cultural factors lead Chinese people to avoid using material wealth as an appropriate basis for evaluating their lives. Perhaps the influence of Confucianism, which stresses moral rectitude and the quality of human interactions over material things, leads Chinese to attach less significance to changes in their personal wealth.

为什么在过去的12年里，中国的经济增长速度惊人，但是中国的平均生活质量却没有显著的提高呢？一种假说是文化因素导致中国人不以物质财富的多少来作为衡量生活质量的基础。或许是受提倡道德清廉和人情关系重于外在物质的儒家思想的影响，中国人并不认为个人财富的增长有什么重大意义。

But the data don't entirely support this theory. Among Chinese interviewed in 2010, average life ratings climbed steadily with respondents' income levels. Those whose self-reported income was in the top 20% gave an average life rating of 5.7 -- more than two scale points higher than the 3.6 average among those with incomes in the bottom 20%.

但是数据并不完全印证这一假说，在2010年受访的中国人中，平均生活质量得分随着收入的增长而提高。那些自称收入最高的20%的人群给出的平均生活质量得分是5.7，比收入最低的20%的人群（得分为3.6）高了超过两分。

There are also differences in life ratings between Chinese living in urban areas and those living in rural areas -- as one might expect given commonly cited concerns about income inequality between China's dynamic eastern cities and the vast rural areas to the west. Since 2004, rural Chinese have rated their lives significantly lower than those living in large cities or suburbs. That gap has widened somewhat since 1999, though life ratings have not changed dramatically among either group.

在生活质量得分上，中国的城镇地区与农村地区也有着明显的差距，中国的东部城镇与西部广阔的农村地区的收入差距也是很多人关心的话题。自2004年以来，中国农村居民的生活质量评估得分一直低于城镇居民。虽然在各自的人群中，这一得分并没有多大变化，但是1999年以来，这两类人群之间的生活质量差距越来越大。

But if economic considerations are good predictors of the way Chinese people view their lives, then the country's trend of flat life ratings remains a puzzle. Another possible explanation is that as living standards have risen in China, so have people's expectations for the quality of their lives. This idea comes from a theory in behavioral economics often referred to as the "hedonic treadmill," which states that people rapidly adjust their hopes and desires to reflect changes in their life circumstances. For example, a person's life satisfaction may not change even if her income is gradually rising, particularly if she feels that everyone around her is getting richer as well.

但是如果经济因素是中国人判断他们生活质量的好的指标，那么他们的生活质量评估得分呈现出如此平滑的曲线令人感到困惑。另一种解释是，在中国，随着生活标准的提高，中国人对于生活质量的期望值也在提高。这种解释源于行为经济学中一个名为“享乐跑步机”的理论，该理论认为人们会通过迅速调整期望值来对身边的改变做出反应。

Changing expectations may represent part of the explanation of the puzzle of China's lackluster life ratings. A 2009 study of households in rural China by researchers at the University of Oxford concluded that respondents' aspirations rose with their incomes, and unmet aspirations lowered their subjective wellbeing. But other researchers, including Gallup Senior Scientist Justin Wolfers and fellow economist Betsey Stevenson, have challenged the theory. In 2008, Wolfers and Stevenson used Gallup's global data to argue that both across and within countries, changes in absolute income levels affect life evaluations at least as much as changes in relative income levels.

China's neglected consumers

被忽视的中国消费者

In China's case, another fact may influence the disconnect between the country's rising GDP and stagnant life evaluations: Rapid economic growth has translated into a considerably less dramatic increase in the actual income of most Chinese citizens. That's because China's growth has been much more heavily investment-driven than consumption-driven. In other words, China's capacity to produce consumer products has far outstripped its people's ability to purchase them. Currently, just 36% of China's GDP is accounted for by private consumption, well below the percentage in other major economies.

在中国的案例中，另一事实或许能够影响到快速增长的GDP与停滞不前的生活质量评估之间的脱节，那便是，快速的经济增长并没有个中国居民的收入带来显著的提高。这是因为，中国的经济增长大多属于投资驱动，而非消费驱动。也就是说，中国的生产产品的能力大大超过了人们的购买能力。现在，只有36%的GDP是有个人消费创造的，这比其他主要经济体的比例低得多。

This imbalance is also influenced by a culture of thrift that has produced the world's highest personal savings rate. However, economists note that it is also a consequence of China's development strategy, which has subsidized manufacturing and infrastructure growth at the expense of the consumer. Chinese monetary policy reflects this focus. For example, the yuan is undervalued relative to foreign currencies, which makes Chinese goods cheaper in foreign markets; the Chinese government also maintains low interest rates on Chinese household deposits to provide cheap access to capital for public and private investors. The results have allowed China to become an exporter to the world and to build world-class cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou.

这种不平衡主要源于中国人注重节约的文化，而这种文化也造成了世界上最高的个人储蓄率。经济学家指出，中国的发展策略也导致了这一现象的产生，因为中国注重制造业和基础设施建设的发展，而非消费的增长。中国的货币政策很好的说明了这一点。比如，人民币对于外币的汇率一直维持在相对较低水平，这一能够使得中国的产品变的更便宜；中国政府在居民储蓄上维持低利率，以便能够为公共和个人投资者提供优质的资本。结果是，中国成为了一个庞大的出口国，造就了诸如上海和广州这样世界级的城市。

In recent years, however, experts have warned that China's economic development strategy -- its investment in the business sector and in infrastructure -- has led to underdeveloped consumer markets, dampening the effect of the country's extraordinary growth on the lives of ordinary citizens. As with life evaluations, Chinese adults' satisfaction with their living standards has risen little over the last 12 years. Two-thirds of Chinese (66%) said they were satisfied in 2010, up slightly from 61% in 1999. The trends among urban and rural Chinese have been similar, particularly since 2007.

近年来，许多专家警告中国着重投资商业和基础设施的经济发展模式导致了消费市场发展不完全，并且抑制了经济增长对于普通老百姓的影响。就生活质量评估而言，12年来，中国成年人对于他们生活标准的满意度只上升了一点点。三分之二（66%）的人称他们感到满意，1999年这一比例是61% 。2007年以来，不管是城镇人口还是农村人口，这一比例都没有太大出入。

The upshot is that while China's growth has greatly reduced poverty through expanded welfare services and access to vital infrastructure such as healthcare and education, many Chinese are not seeing as dramatic a change in their day-to-day purchasing power. That makes them vulnerable to growth-induced inflation in food and housing prices, which might be another factor keeping them from radically reassessing the quality of their lives.

虽然通过扩大福利和对医疗、教育等基础设施建设的完善，中国的经济增长极大地减少了贫困，但是许多中国人的日常购买力却没有多大的改变。这使得他们在面临由增长引发的通货膨胀（比如食品价格和房价）脆弱不堪，而这又引发了他们对于生活质量的重新考量。

Implications

启示

The Chinese government is now clearly focused on strategies geared toward more rapidly changing the living standards of the country's consumers. The global economic crisis highlighted the limits of global markets' ability to absorb China's huge trade surpluses over the long term and reinforced the notion that to continue its rise, China must rebalance its economy to better align consumption with production.

中国政府现在的战略向着快速改善人民生活水平方向倾斜。全球金融危机表明全球市场吸收中国巨大贸易顺差的能力明显不足，而为了保持经济增长，中国需要平衡其经济，以使得消费和产出能够相当。

In recent years, consumer stimulus programs have offered rural Chinese rebates for purchasing home appliances and subsidies for upgrading their vehicles. Such efforts may be having some effect; a Gallup analysis from 2010 indicated that consumer demand had already begun to rise.

近年来，中国实施了一系列消费刺激计划，比如给农村居民发放购买家电和汽车的补贴。这些计划起到了一些效果，一项盖洛普分析显示2010年消费需求已经上升。

However, some experts argue that such measures should be accompanied by longer term efforts to place a greater share of the country's income in the hands of the millions of household consumers who aren't already profiting from the production boom. That would require difficult policy reforms that divert some of the capital currently available for investment and infrastructure.

然而，一些专家指出，中国政府还需要实现藏富于民，将收入的一大部分放到还没有从经济增长中受益的家庭消费者手中。这需要艰难的政策改革，将用于投资和基础设施建设的资金转移出来。

But it may also help drive improvements in life evaluations and other essential wellbeing metrics that would indicate Chinese consumers are more fully participating in their country's historic economic rise. Such wellbeing gains are crucial to China's future -- not only as a matter of social justice but as a way to put the country on a more sustainable path to long-term economic success.

这样做会带来生活质量评估得分和其他重要指标的提高，也表明中国的消费者正在更多的参与到国家的经济增长当中。这种幸福感的提升对于中国很重要，因为它不仅显示了社会公平，也会将这个国家推向长期的经济成功。