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US default debate: Russian roulette in America

The argument is not about the formula; it is about stopping an elected president from functioning

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2011-7-26 09:12


If you say something often and loudly enough, it can become an accepted truth. And when the target of your wrath is Barack Obama, it can become a righteous one. The record US public deficit is not, as far too many Republicans claim, the result of government spending on foreign aid, education and food safety. And cutting such discretionary spending will not fill the deficit hole. By far the two most significant drivers of the deficit are the Bush-era tax cuts and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which added $1.8tn and $1.4tn to the debt respectively. Compared to that, the Obama-era stimulus spending, which adds $711bn to the deficit, or his healthcare reforms are small fry. In terms of the deficit, Bush-era policies were nearly five times as damaging as Mr Obama's.


In a very real sense, the final week of the great budget debate, which will bring America to the brink of default if no agreement is reached on raising the debt ceiling by 2 August, is not about economic facts. It is not even about two rival visions of government. In his eagerness to split differences and to triangulate, Mr Obama has already conceded what most of the Republicans want by offering to divide spending cuts and tax rises 83% and 17% respectively. The White House went even further in offering to cut spending by more than the deficit plan proposed by a bipartisan group which included some of the Senate's most conservative members. The latest formula, unveiled yesterday by the Senate majority leader Harry Reid, has no new taxes at all. This alone has caused some to conclude that the Republicans have won, but do not yet realise it. But the argument is not about the formula. It is about stopping an elected president, who has every chance of winning a second term, from functioning. The mere fact that Mr Obama embraces a plan, no matter how far right it leans, is enough to kill it in Republican eyes. The bottom line seems to be that they do not accept his legitimacy as president. He is everything the Republican base and the rightwing talk show hosts hate.


These are dangerous, personal and petty games being played out against a background of wobbling economies on either side of the Atlantic. It is not as if Europeans have the luxury of being disinterested spectators of the US debate. The feelgood factor of the bailout package agreed by the eurozone leaders lasted all of one weekend, before the rating agency Moody's said it was virtually certain that Greece would default. Both the eurozone and the US economies are struggling to overcome the mountain of debt from the housing bubble of the last decade.


Unemployment and the crashing need to create jobs and boost tax revenues – modestly addressed by the Obama stimulus plan – has almost disappeared from the debate. But not entirely. While Mr Obama was being dragged into debate with the Tea party right, Mitt Romney, one of the seekers of the Republican nomination, launched a new web video asking: "Where are the jobs?" Mr Obama risks losing sight of the issue that bothers America most.


Americans are enjoying the lowest tax burden in over five decades and they know it. Only one-fifth of those polled want to see a budget deficit deal with spending cuts only, and most favour a deal which would be regarded as a compromise. This is for good reason. The damage created by a US default is real enough – a jump in interest rates, a collapse of the dollar and a return to a global slump. And that is not counting the 70 million cheques for social security, veterans and disabled that go out each month from US federal coffers. These are not only immediate effects of a default but lasting ones. Glorying in the tactical stand of the moment is more important to Republicans than the havoc a default would wreak on the world markets. If this is a sample of the world leadership they intend to offer in government, they are making an excellent case for why they should be considered unelectable.



Guardian Editorial
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