钱宝贪婪洞窟1.31:现在是投资中国股市的良机？

2011年 07月 18日 11:44现在是投资中国股市的良机？
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中国有句古话：瑕不掩瑜。同样的见解或许也适用于中国股市。

对于一个预计将成为未来几十年世界经济增长引擎的国家来说，中国有很多当务之急。中国经济增速放缓，通胀不断攀升，房地产市场可能存在泡沫。此外，关于企业会计诈骗的指控也让一些投资者开始讨厌中国股票。

Bloomberg News一群工人走过北京的一处保障房小区。以上是摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数(MSCI China index)自2010年初以来仅上涨3%的部分原因。相比之下，标准普尔500指数(Standard & Poor's 500-stock index)同期大涨了20%。

尽管存在很多问题，现在却可能是投资中国的一个良机。达孚大中华基金(Dreyfus Greater China fund)经理西蒙(Hugh Simon)说，人们现在都说中国完了，但其实中国仍具备增长潜能。

为什么现在要去冒这个险？根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的说法，即使中国面临困境，其2011年经济增长仍有望达到9.6%。虽然这一增幅低于2010年的10.3%，但对全球增长的贡献可能仍超过30%以上。IMF预计今年全球经济的平均增速为4.3%。

中国政府正采取措施刺激经济进一步增长，其中包括给中低收入阶层减税和为保障房建设提供资金等。按理说，这应该可以支撑建筑开支并刺激消费支出。

此外有数据显示，中国消费者价格指数(CPI)可能即将见顶。中国6月份CPI为6.4%，升至金融危机后的最高水平。中国5月份货币供应量M2同比增速降至15.1%，这是自2005年5月以来的最低水平，这表明系统内流动的现金量减少，通胀压力可能正在减退。

如果通胀水平走低，中国股市或许会得到提振。通胀加剧使得实际利润有所“缩水”，且在通常情况下可造成股票估值下跌，而通胀下行可提升实际利润的价值，股票估值也经常随之水涨船高。这种情况最有名的一个例子是上世纪八九十年代的美国，当时大多数时候通胀都出现下跌，股市则节节飙升。与之类似的是，中国的通胀率从2003年11月的3%跃升至2004年7月和8月的5.3%时，摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数仅上涨了2.2%。而一年后通胀率跌至1.3%，中国股市大涨了24%。

此外，虽然中国通胀率显然处于过高的水平，但9.6%的经济增速仍给了中国政府更多的余地，可通过货币政策来应对通胀问题。相形之下，英国的通胀目前在4.5%的高位运行，而其经济增长仅为1.6%。美国的通胀水平也达到了令人不安的3.6%，而经济增长率只有1.9%。

跟欧美国家一样，中国也有债务问题。今年5月31日，中国同意提供至多4,360亿美元来承担地方政府的贷款坏账，相当于2008年美国问题资产救助计划(Troubled Asset ReliefProgram)拨付资金的一半左右。但中国手里握有一张别国不具有的“王牌”：3.2万亿美元的外汇储备，这是全球规模最大的外储。

投资管理公司Van Eck Global国际股市业务主管森普(David Semple)说，美国和欧洲存在更大的问题，我会更担心这些问题，而不是中国的状况。

也许最重要的的是，最近股市的下挫令中国的股票看起来便宜了。MSCI中国指数12个月预期市盈率为10.4倍，为2009年以来最低的。目前该指数的市盈率较标准普尔500指数低约17%。这是2009年1月以来两指数市盈率之间最大的差距；2009年，该指数收益率为58.9%，较标准普尔500指数26.5%的收益率高了一倍以上。

这并不会降低中国股市的风险。最大的风险是，包括对冲基金经理鲍尔森(JohnPaulson)在内的投资者一直受到在美国和加拿大上市的中国公司一连串会计丑闻的严重打击。鲍尔森在一家中国公司的持股损失了约1.10亿美元，他是在2007年开始买进该公司股票的，于今年6月17日卖出。鲍尔森拒绝置评。

那么，如何在不遭受损失的情况下，玩转中国股市？以下是一些战略：

买进派息股。降低会对投资组合造成严重损害的会计违规风险的方法之一是买进派息公司的股票。美国密歇根大学(University ofMichigan)的卡斯基(Judson Caskey)和汉伦(Michelle Hanlon)2005年对美国公司的研究显示，尽管事实是派息的公司不会完全消除会计欺诈的可能，却会大大降低这种机率。

如果可以以美国历史为鉴的话，目前中国派息股可能尤其富有吸引力。投资顾问公司Constellation Wealth AdvisorsLLC驻纽约首席投资长卡兹曼(Sam Katzman)说，在美国证券交易委员会(U.S. Securities and ExchangeCommission)成立之前以及要求详细财务信息披露的规定出台之前，派息是美国投资者知道他们可以信任美国公司财务状况的途径之一。卡兹曼说，如果公司派息，人们就会认为他们没有在会计问题上耍花招。过去美国是这样，如今中国的情况也是这样。

中国公司看起来迫切希望赢得投资者的信任。在MSCI中国指数的147家成份股公司中，有89%的公司派息。尽管中国公司只占了MSCI亚太指数(MSCI AC Asia Pacific index)成份股公司总市值的12%，却占了总派息的28%，仅略低于日本。

相关报导看好中国股市的“女巴菲特”
投资战略家投资心得：避开中国股市
顶尖美国投资通讯如何看中国股市
中国股市向华尔街发出警讯

一些共同基金在中国仅专注于派息的公司。据投资研究公司晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)的数据，Matthews ChinaDividend基金今年收益率为1.7%，较一般的中国地区基金高出4.7个百分点。该基金最大持股是中国移动（股价跌了5.8%）和长江基建（涨了24.6%）。该基金的股息收益率为2.21%，轻松击败了标准普尔500指数1.84%的股息收益率。

不过，投资者需要有所选择：股息收益率第二高的、投资活跃的基金EP China今年以来跌了9%，尽管收益率为1.65%。该基金最大的持股包括中国玉柴国际有限公司（股价跌了32%）和中国海洋石油（跌1.3%）。

选择正确的指数基金。在大部分市场上，买进一只指数基金可能是投资股市最便宜、最有效的方法。不过，由于中国股市结构的复杂性──公司可能在上海上市（上海股市对大部分国际投资者都不开放），也可能是在香港、新加坡和美国等地上市──选择交易所买卖基金并非投资中国股市的一种简单方式，也未必是有效的方式。

中国公司的投资者有一系列有时令人困惑的股票类型可以选择：所谓的A股，这类股票只对中国公民开放并且只在上海和深圳交易；在香港交易的H股；在香港交易但受中国政府控制的被称为“红筹股”；以及作为美国存托凭证（ADRs）在美国交易所交易的中国公司股票。

同一公司在不同交易所的股票会有大相径庭的回报，很大程度上是由于各交易所的投资者组成差别太大。比如安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司在香港上市的股票今年股价涨了63%，而在上海交易的股票股价只涨了45%。上海股市仅向中国公民开放。

结论就是：选择正确的指数至关重要。巴克莱财富（Barclays Wealth）首席投资长戈维兹（Aaron Gurwitz）说，存在隐藏风险；指数可能表现良好，但基金或许表现不好。

例如，安硕富时中国25指数交易所买卖基金（iShares FTSE China 25 IndexETF）拥有在香港恒生交易所上市的25家最大的中国公司。但其投资组合的50%以上都是在金融服务领域，而该领域受中国债务问题影响最大。安硕摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数交易所买卖基金（iShares MSCI China Index ETF）金融股的比重为35%，但每日交易量不足7000股，这会使得投资者难以加仓和减仓。Market Vectors中国交易所买卖基金（Market VectorsChina ETF）专门跟踪A股，金融股持仓比重为26%，但必须使用所谓的掉期协议获得敞口，因为A股不向国际投资者开放。

标准普尔中国交易所买卖基金（The SPDR S&P China ETF）是晨星的头号选择。该基金包括在香港和美国上市的130家中国公司的股票，平均每日交易量为10万股，费用率仅为0.59%，是中国地区交易所买卖基金的最低水平。该基金今年涨了1%。

另一个选择是试图将金融股排除在外来模拟指数。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师帕克（AdamParker）6月所做的分析发现，中国移动、中海油、中石油、中国联通（香港）有限公司、中国人寿保险、中石化、兖州煤业股份有限公司、中国铝业以及中国电信这九个美国存托凭证组合从2004年开始一直在忠实地跟随摩根士丹利国际资本中国指数，相关系数为0.8，比较稳定（1.0的相关系数意味着资产交易步伐一致）。该组合中金融股仅占3.7%，摩根士丹利国际资本中国指数中金融股的比例为35.8%。

投资在中国做生意的美国公司。Sanders Financial Management高级金融分析师塔克伍德（Stephen Tuckwood）说，中国的会计将怀疑主义带到了完全不同的层面；获得接近中国经济增长机会的最安全方法是通过有在华业务的美国公司。

帕克说，相信“中国故事”但依然害怕中国股市的投资者可以考虑创建一个类似摩根士丹利国际资本中国指数但不持有中国股票的投资组合。摩根士丹利最近的研究发现，在与标普500指数以及标普金属和矿业指数（S&P Metals and MiningIndex）的仓位结合时，包括联合太平洋公司（Union PacificCorp.）、高露洁棕榄（Colgate-Palmolive）和陶氏化学公司（Dow ChemicalCo.）等在内的17只权重相等的股票组合与摩根士丹利国际资本中国指数的相关系数为0.76。这组股票所占比重分别为：一篮子股票中的18.6%，标普500指数中的53.3%，金属指数中的28.1%。

从中国获得大比重收入的一些公司包括快餐公司以及百胜餐饮集团（Yum!Brands Inc. ，36.5%的收入来自中国）、麦当劳公司（McDonald'sCorp.，21%的收入来自亚太地区）和苹果公司（Apple Inc.，12.7%的收入来自亚洲）。

注意一个公司的上市地点。由于无法涉足A股，国际投资者应注意一家公司的股票是在哪里交易的。比如，对于希望在内地以外地区上市的中国公司，香港一直是他们趋之若鹜的市场：2011年，62%的中国IPO都是在中国进行的，34%在香港，只有4%在美国。

为什么公司会去美国？主要是由于他们认为美国投资者对自己股票的估值会比亚洲投资者的估值高。比如百度这样的互联网公司往往都在美国上市，因为美国的投资者会支付更高的溢价。（外国公司在华上市也是如此，卢森堡行李箱制造商新秀丽国际（SamsoniteInternational）在香港上市的一个原因就是亚洲投资者对奢侈品支付的溢价更高。）

自2005年上市首日收盘以来，百度股价涨了1,643%，而在美上市的中国公司表现往往不及在香港上市的公司。拥有五年业绩记录、目前在纽约证券交易所（New York StockExchange）或纳斯达克（Nasdaq）上市的中国公司五年股价涨幅中位数为36.9%，而在香港上市的中国公司为60%。VanEck的森普说，亚洲是大势所趋。

Why China Looks Like a Buy China Slowdown

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字体'A diamond with a flaw is worthmore than a pebble without imperfections,' goes the ancient Chineseproverb. That same thinking might apply to China's stock market.

Fora country that is expected to be an engine of global growth for decadesto come, China has a long list of immediate concerns. The economy isslowing. Inflation is climbing. The real-estate market may be in abubble. And charges of accounting shenanigans have soured some investorson Chinese stocks.

Those are some of the reasons why the MSCIChina index has risen just 3% since the beginning of 2010, compared with20% for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.

And yet,despite its many problems, now might a good time to invest in China. 'Atthe moment, people are saying it's over,' says Hugh Simon, manager ofthe Dreyfus Greater China fund. 'But China still has growth potential.'

Whytake the plunge now? Even a struggling China is expected to see itseconomy expand by 9.6% in 2011, according to the International MonetaryFund. While that is down from 10.3% in 2010, it could account for morethan 30% of the world's total. On average, the IMF expects the globaleconomy to expand by 4.3% this year.

And the Chinese governmentis taking steps to stimulate growth further, from cutting taxes on thepoor and middle class to funding public housing. That, in turn, shouldprop up construction spending and boost consumer spending.

Meanwhile,data suggest that China's consumer-price index, which rose to apost-financial-crisis high of 6.4% in June, may be cresting. China'smoney supply, known as M2, dropped to 15.1% in May, the lowest levelsince May 2005─an indication that less cash is sloshing around in thesystem and that inflationary pressures may be ebbing.

Ifinflation tapers off, China's stocks could get a boost. While risinginflation makes real profits worth less, and usually causes stockvaluations to drop, falling inflation makes profits worth more and oftenmakes valuations rise. Most famously, in the U.S., inflation fell formost of the 1980s and 1990s, and the stock market soared. Similarly,when China's inflation rate jumped from 3% in November 2003 to 5.3% inJuly and August 2004, the MSCI China index rose just 2.2%. A year later,inflation had fallen to 1.3%─and the market was up 24%.

What'smore, while China's inflation rate is clearly too high, its 9.6%economic growth gives it more latitude to attack the problem viamonetary policy. In the U.K., by contrast, inflation is running at a4.5% clip, despite economic growth of just 1.6%. Even in the U.S.,inflation is running at an uncomfortably high 3.6%, despite an economicgrowth rate of just 1.9%.

Likewise, China, like Europe and theU.S., has a debt problem. On May 31 China agreed to provide as much as$436 billion to cover bad loans made to local governments, an amountequal to about half of the U.S.'s Troubled Asset Relief Program of 2008.But China also has a trump card that others don't: $3.2 trillion incash reserves, by far the biggest hoard in the world.

'There arebigger problems in the U.S. and Europe,' says David Semple, director ofinternational equity at money manager Van Eck Global. 'I would beworried about those things, not what's going on in China.'

Perhapsmost important, the recent market slump has China's stocks lookingcheap. The MSCI China index has a 12-month forward price/earnings ratioof 10.4, the lowest since 2009. The China index's P/E is now at about a17% discount to that of the S&P 500. It hasn't been steeper sinceJanuary 2009; over the course of that year the index returned 58.9%,more than double the S&P's 26.5%.

That isn't to minimize therisks in the China market. The biggest: Investors including hedge-fundmanager John Paulson have been buffeted by a series of accountingscandals of Chinese companies listed in the U.S. and Canada. Mr. Paulsonlost about $110 million on one such position, which he beganaccumulating in 2007 and sold on June 17. Mr. Paulson declined tocomment.

So how to play China without getting burned? Here are some strategies:

Buy dividend-paying stocks.One way to reduce the risks of accounting blowups wrecking yourportfolio is to buy companies that pay dividends. A 2005 study of U.S.companies by Judson Caskey and Michelle Hanlon of the University ofMichigan found that while the fact that a company pays a dividend didn'teliminate the chance of accounting fraud, it greatly reduces the odds.

IfU.S. history is a guide, Chinese dividend-paying stocks could beespecially attractive now. Dividend payments were one of the ways thatU.S. investors knew they could trust the financials of U.S. companies inthe days before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission andregulations requiring detailed financial disclosures, says Sam Katzman,chief investment officer at Constellation Wealth Advisors LLC in NewYork. 'If they pay a dividend, it's an argument that they're not playingwith their accounting,' Mr. Katzman says. 'That's where the U.S. wasand that's where the Chinese are now.'

Chinese companies seemeager to win investors' trust. Of the 147 companies in the MSCI Chinaindex, 89% pay a dividend. Despite making up just 12% of the MSCI ACAsia Pacific index market cap, China accounted for 28% of the totaldividends paid out, only slightly less than Japan.

Some mutualfunds focus solely on dividend-paying companies in China. The MatthewsChina Dividend fund has returned 1.7% this year, 4.7 percentage pointsmore than the average China-region fund, according toinvestment-research firm Morningstar Inc. Its biggest holdings are ChinaMobile Ltd., down 5.8%, and Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd.,up 24.6%. The fund's dividend yield of 2.21% handily beats the S&P500's 1.84%.

Investors need to be selective, however: theactively managed fund with the second highest dividend yield, EP China,has lost 9% this year despite a yield of 1.65%. Its largest positionsinclude China Yuchai International Ltd., down 32%, and Cnooc Ltd., down1.3%.

Pick the right index funds. In most markets,buying an index fund can be the cheapest, most effective way to getmarket exposure. But because of the complexity of China's marketstructure─companies can be listed in Shanghai, which isn't open to mostinternational investors, Hong Kong, Singapore and the U.S., amongothers─choosing an exchange-traded fund isn't a simple, or necessarilyefficient, way to play China.

Investors in Chinese companies havea bewildering array of shares to choose from: So-called A shares, whichare available only to Chinese citizens and trade in Shanghai andShenzhen; H shares, which trade in Hong Kong; 'red chips' that aretraded in Hong Kong but are controlled by the Chinese government; andshares of Chinese companies that trade on U.S. exchanges as Americandepositary receipts, or ADRs.

Stocks of the same company ondifferent exchanges can have wildly different returns, largely becausethe pools of investors are so different. Anhui Conch Cement Co. shareslisted in Hong Kong, for instance, have gained 63% this year, while thecompany's stock listed in Shanghai, whose market is open only toChinese, is up just 45%.

The upshot: Choosing the right index iscritical. 'There are hidden risks,' says Aaron Gurwitz, chief investmentofficer at Barclays Wealth. 'The index may do well but the fund mightnot.'

The iShares FTSE China 25 Index ETF, for instance, owns the25 largest Chinese companies listed on Hong Kong's Hang Seng exchange.But more than 50% of the portfolio is in the financial services-sector,which has the most exposure to China's debt problems. The iShares MSCIChina Index ETF has a 35% stake in financials, but trades fewer than7,000 shares a day, which can make it difficult for investors to get inand out of positions. The Market Vectors China ETF tracks A shares andhas a 26% position in financials but it must use so-called swapagreements to gain exposure because A shares aren't available tointernational investors.

The SPDR S&P China ETF isMorningstar's top pick. It includes 130 Chinese stocks listed in bothHong Kong and the U.S., trades more than 100,000 shares a day on averageand has an expense ratio of just 0.59%, the lowest among China-regionETFs. The fund is up 1% this year.

Another option is to try toreplicate the index without the financials. A June analysis performed byAdam Parker, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, found thata portfolio of nine Chinese American depositary receipts─China Mobile,Cnooc, PetroChina Co., China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd., China LifeInsurance Co., China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Yanzhou Coal MiningCo., Aluminum Corp. of China and China Telecom Corp.─have reliablytracked the MSCI China index since 2004, with a relatively steadycorrelation of 0.8 (a correlation of 1.0 means assets trade inlockstep). The portfolio has just 3.7% allocated to financials, comparedwith 35.8% for the MSCI China index.

Invest in U.S. companies that do business in China.'Chinese accounting takes skepticism to a whole other level,' saysStephen Tuckwood, senior financial analyst at Sanders FinancialManagement. 'The safest way to gain access to economic growth in Chinais with U.S.-based companies with Chinese operations.'

Investorswho believe in the 'China story' but still fear Chinese stocks couldconsider building a portfolio that mimics the MSCI China index but ownsno Chinese stocks, says Mr. Parker. Morgan Stanley's recent study foundthat a portfolio of 17 equal-weighted stocks, ranging from Union PacificCorp. and Colgate-Palmolive to Dow Chemical Co., had a correlation of0.76 to the MSCI China index, when combined with a position in theS&P 500 and the S&P Metals and Mining Index. The portfolio mix:18.6% in the basket of stocks, 53.3% in the S&P 500 and 28.1% in themetals index.

Some companies that get a large percentage ofrevenues from China include fast-food companies like and Yum! BrandsInc. (36.5% of revenue from China), McDonald's Corp. (21% across theAsia Pacific region), and Apple Inc. (12.7% across Asia).

Pay attention to where a company is listed. WithA shares off limits, international investors should pay attention wherea company's stock trades. For instance, Hong Kong has been the go-tomarket for Chinese companies looking to list beyond their home borders:In 2011, 62% of Chinese IPOs were listed in China, 34% in Hong Kong andjust 4% in the U.S.

Why do companies come to the U.S.? For themost part, it is because they believe their shares will be valued moreby U.S. investors than Asian ones. For instance, Internet companies likeBaidu Inc. tend to list in the U.S. because investors here pay a higherpremium for these stocks. (The listings work both ways─luggage makerSamsonite International, a Luxembourg-based company, listed in Hong Kongin part because Asian investors put a higher premium on luxury goods.)

WhileBaidu has gained 1,643% since the end of its first day of trading in2005, Chinese companies listed in the U.S. tend to underperform thoselisted in Hong Kong. The median five-year gain for a Chinese companycurrently listed on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq with afive-year track record has been 36.9%, compared with 60% for Chinesecompanies listed in Hong Kong. Says Van Eck's Mr. Semple: 'The action isin Asia.'

BEN LEVISOHN