重生之大涅磐女主:China's Growing Military Muscle: A Looming Th...

来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/04/27 02:51:41

China's Growing Military Muscle: A Looming Threat?

NPR says that China is expanding its reach in the world in many ways — through investments, infrastructure, military power and more. And especially the military power makes some countries feel that China is a looming threat!

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At the Stonecutters Island army base in Hong Kong, camouflage-clad Chinese soldiers lunge forward with fierce yells, making stabbing motions with their daggers. There's a communal shout of admiration from the crowd watching the display on the army's home territory, which is opened up once a year to the public as a goodwill gesture.


"We've done a lot of work on our image in Hong Kong," says sailor Yu Bin, as he helps visitors clamber up onto a warship. "I don't think people should be scared, because after all, we're here to defend the country."

Beijing has long argued its army is primarily defensive, aimed at safeguarding China's territorial sovereignty. But the speed of China's military development is unnerving its neighbors and the United States.

Senior Chinese officers insist China's People's Liberation Army, or PLA, is decades behind the U.S. Army, thus justifying 20 years of almost continuous double-digit hikes to the military budget. Many Chinese agree, like Lai Pau Mok, who is enjoying the military parade.

"Compared to U.S.A, there's still a long way [to go]," he says. Like many other Chinese, he believes a strong army is necessary to counterbalance the U.S. "If our army is strong enough, it will be no war. If our army is not strong enough, the war will come up."


The End Of 'Hide And Bide'?

When Hong Kong was returned to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, just eight years after the killings in Tiananmen Square, many Hong Kong residents were unnerved by the Chinese troops rumbling over the border. But now the situation is very different.

"China's become stronger and stronger. Everybody feels proud to face to this fact," says another spectator, Teresa Lee, beaming with pride.

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Stonecutters Island army base in Hong Kong opens to the public once a year as a goodwill gesture. Displays include kung fu demonstrations and shows of knife-fighting skills.



Indeed, Beijing's new military hardware has caught U.S. defense intelligence off guard, as Defense Secretary Robert Gates openly admitted in January. As if to make that clear, China performed the first test flight of its new J-20 stealth fighter jet during Gates' January visit to Beijing. Now China has almost finished refurbishing its first aircraft carrier — an old Ukrainian model, the Varyag, which the Xinhua news agency has described as "on the verge of setting out."

Last week, PLA general Chen Bingde officially confirmed the existence of the carrier for the first time, saying, "The carrier is now being built. It's not completed."

"They change Varyag day by day, hour by hour," says Andrei Chang from Kanwa Asian Defense, who's been tracking the work. "We've seen they've installed most of electronic warfare, radio antennas — everything is done."

He believes it will mainly be used for training purposes as China prepares to build its own carriers. Chinese aircraft carriers could ultimately change the balance of military power, threatening U.S. power projection in the Pacific.

A Chinese survey in May indicated that most Chinese support the aircraft carrier, with 81.3 percent of respondents believing a carrier would "shore up China's overall military power," and 50.9 percent saying it would serve as a counterbalance to the U.S.

But Chang says that this is just one weapon in China's arsenal.

"Compared with Russia and U.S., only China simultaneously is building aircraft carriers, strategic ballistic missile submarines, stealth fighters, nuclear attack submarines, GPS satellite — everything simultaneously," Chang says.

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The Varyag aircraft carrier, shown April 26, is being renovated at a shipyard in the northern Chinese city of Dalian. After years of refurbishing work, the carrier — bought from Ukraine — has been described as "on the verge of setting out" by Xinhua state news agency.


Add to that growing nationalism and growing self-confidence. This could mark the end of the era of "hide and bide" — hide your capabilities and bide your time, as advocated by earlier Chinese leaders. Beijing has shown new assertiveness, publicizing military drills and taking a stronger stance in the East and South China seas.

Against a backdrop of rising tensions with Vietnam and the Philippines over the disputed South China Sea, Beijing's been carrying out maritime defense exercises and beach landing drills, as well as dispatching one of its biggest civilian maritime patrol ships to patrol the South China Sea.

And the public mood appears to be hardening; despite Beijing's pledges not to use force, one poll found that 82.9 percent of Chinese respondents suggested China should use military actions to resolve its disputes in the South China Sea.

But some believe China's military ambitions are nothing new.

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A J-20 stealth fighter is inspected by Chinese air force ground crew members in Chengdu on April 17. China performed the first test flight of the J-20 during a visit by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates in January.

"China's military dream is to build the strongest country in the world, the No. 1 militaristic power," says Senior Col. Liu Mingfu in an interview posted on the Defence Observer magazine's website. His book, The China Dream, is taught in Chinese military colleges, alongside Carl von Clausewitz's classic On War. But he denies that China's military is a threat.

"We are too weak and insecure," says Liu. "The U.S. carries out military drills on our doorstep, and uses its aircraft carriers to flaunt its military power. Every single Chinese can feel the U.S. military threat. U.S. containment and threat are the biggest impetus behind China's military development."



A 'Changing Situation'


Many within the military establishment downplay the idea of a "China threat," asserting that China's aims are not expansionist.

"We only want one thing: Don't harm our interests," says retired Maj. Gen. Xu Guangyu. But China's interests are expanding at warp speed, encompassing ever more shipping lanes, oil supply channels and Chinese citizens overseas.

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Chinese military vehicles carry the Dong Feng 21D "carrier killer" missile during a military parade in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2009. The missile under development is designed to be launched from land to hit a carrier hundreds of miles away. "Though still unproven (and some analysts say overrated) no other country has such a weapon," reports The Associated Press.


"The U.S. must accept the changing situation. As China becomes more powerful, we'll start voicing our opinions about our maritime demands, and any conflicts regarding surrounding territories," he says. He characterizes China's security stance as "active defense," and says Beijing has no intention of opening military bases overseas or replacing the U.S. as a "global policeman."

But there are clearly more hawkish voices, which are becoming ever louder in this debate. The Global Times, a nationalistic-leaning tabloid, recently ran an editorial calling for Chinese military bases overseas.

"If the world really wants China to take more responsibilities in Asia-Pacific region and around the world, it should allow China to participate in international military co-operations and understand the need of China to set up overseas military bases," said the Global Times. "It will not only make our world safer, but can also protect trade routes from pirates and terrorists. Worrying about China's overseas military activity will only isolate China from the rest of the world."

Perhaps hoping to defuse tensions, China recently sent its military band, along with its top generals, to the U.S. In public, the talk was of friendly cooperation. But many fear China's speedy military modernization speaks another language. (NPR)

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Is there any need for other countries to worry about the rising of China especially in military power? Looking back in the history, everyone can find out that China was never a agreesive country like Nazi and loved to invade, on contrast, Chinese people built the Great Wall, as one of the world's wonders, for defense, and even in Han and Tang dynasties, when China was the most powerful country in the world, Chinese emperors would always ordered to repair the Great Wall from time to time but not to invade time and time again! 28 2
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2# > A < Posted  2011-6-28 10:36  Only show this user's posts Quote from the article"

"Compared to U.S.A, there's still a long way [to go]," he says. Like many other Chinese, he believes a strong army is necessary to counterbalance the U.S. "If our army is strong enough, it will be no war. If our army is not strong enough, the war will come up."
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I don't know if China is that many years behind the US. But obviously China is still behind the US. The question is, is China already strong enough to discourage the US from attacking it? For example, nuclear deterrence is a credible deterrence that will prevent wars from escalating out of hand. If China had deployed 1,000 nuclear warheads on DF-31 and DF-31A ICBMs then the US must be very careful not to get into a shooting war for fear that things might escate out of control. In this way the US will avoid getting into a shooting war with China in the first place. So even though the US has 6,000 nuclear warheads deployed and China had only 1,000 the difference is not important even though China obviously has a long way to go to catch up with the US in terms of nuclear missiles deployed. But China actually only has fewer than 30 nuclear warheads deployed. And that is not even a deterrence, especially the US has deployed anti-missile-missiles which can knock down Chinese nuclear warheads, especially if there are only a few of them.  And the reason for so few nuclear missiles deployed is not because China is too poor but because China is afraid to offend America.

As to other weapons, China has just about everything America has from nuclear submarines, 5th generation stealth fighters, carrier-killer missiles, UAV, tanks, etc. They are either just as good or good enough as to make little difference. For example, China has designed the J-20 and is in the process of testing it. J-20 is a 5th generation stealth fighter that is probably as good as America's 5th generation fighter F-22 Raptor. America has deployed the F-22 while it might take a few more years for China to begin deploying them in large numbers. So the difference between China and America is in the numbers or in the timing of development and deployment. America has many more fighters than China. America has more submarines than China. And so on. But while China has fewer of each weapons, it needs only to defend itself. Whereas America deploys military bases all around the world. Therefore, America cannot bring all its weapons to fight China but China can use all its weapons to defend against the US invasion. So if China has only 1/3 of America's weapons it is enough to fight America to a draw. For example, if America had 1,500 4th generation fighters, then China would need only 500 to defend against it because America cannot bring more than 500 of its fighters to invade China. And since China has 600 4th generation fighters, it can comfortably defend against the US.  

From the following actual statistics, it seems China has 1,300 fighters (600 4th generation fighters) while America has 2,132 fighters (1,245 F-16 4th generation fighters).  So China has more than 1/3 the 4th generation fighters America has.  China can also use its missiles to defend against America’s attack.  It seems China already can defend itself quite adequately against US attacks.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Air_Force

China's airforce:

400,000 personnel
2,500 aircraft
1,900/2500 Combat aircraft

(1300 fighters, 600 are 4th generation)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Air_Force#F_-_Fighters

US airforce:

329,638 active personnel
68,872 reserve personnel
94,597 air guard personnel
5,573 aircraft, of which

2,132 are fighters (1,245 are variants of F-16 4th generation)


Of course, China should increase its military budget. Currently, it is only spending some 1.5% of GDP for military. This could be increased to 2% or even 3%. At GDP of 40 trillion yuan and 3% this would be 1.2 trillion yuan. If the PPP value of yuan is 4 yuan per dollar then 1.2 trillion yuan would be some $300 billion equivalent. If the PPP value of the yuan is 3 yuan per dollar then 1.2 trillion would be equivalent to $400 billion. This would be about 1/3 or more of America's military budget. And China can deploy enough high tech weapons to comfortably defend against the US starting with the deployment of 1,000 nuclear warheads.

America is spending almost $1 trillion or 6.5% of its GDP which is apparently too much and is causing a great deal of budget deficit and national debt.
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3# > A < Posted  2011-6-28 11:26  Only show this user's posts Quote from the article:
"Compared with Russia and U.S., only China simultaneously is building aircraft carriers, strategic ballistic missile submarines, stealth fighters, nuclear attack submarines, GPS satellite — everything simultaneously," Chang says.
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How much China can develop and expand its military depends on two things.  The first is technologies and the second is economy.  If China can have millions of world class scientists and engineers and a GNP of $100 trillion equivalent than China can develop the most advanced weapons and deploy them in very large numbers.

Right now China's GDP is some 40 trillion yuan.  Based on the nominal exchange rate of 6.48 yuan per dollar this is $6.17 trillion.  Based on the PPP value of 3 yuan per dollar this is $13.33 trillion.  Therefore, China economy is already very close to America's which means China can deploy as many weapons as America whether in 5th generaton fighters, nuclear attack subs, carrier killer missiles, etc.  And China does not need to deploy as many weapons as America since China is only defendng itself while America must use more weapons to attack.

Therefore, China must first increase the number of its universities to educate and train more world class scientists and engineers to develop new high tech weapons such as rail guns, scramjet fighters, cavitating torpedoes, etc.  Then China must develop its economy by shifting away from exports to domestic development based on the urbanization of the farmers.  Then China would be able to develop sustainably while minimizing the dependence on foreignes such as the Japanese and the Americans.  And with its very large economy deploy many times more weapons while spending only a small amount of its GNP.
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4# > A < Posted  2011-6-28 16:51  Only show this user's posts Quote from the article:
Add to that growing nationalism and growing self-confidence. This could mark the end of the era of "hide and bide" — hide your capabilities and bide your time, as advocated by earlier Chinese leaders. Beijing has shown new assertiveness, publicizing military drills and taking a stronger stance in the East and South China seas.
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The above refers to the Chinese phrase, "韬光养晦."  This is obviously a good strategy and even a necessary strategy when dealing with powerful, ruthless and envious people who might ruthlessly kill a person if he suspects too much threat.  Therefore, by pretending to be lacking in ability a person can preserve his security by avoiding the attention of ruthless and envious peoples.

But it is also important to understand that oftentimes bullies will pick on the weak and the defenseless.  If China cultivated an image of cowardice then it will enbolden aggressors to attack it leading to much bigger problem.  Therefore, the policy for China to follow is to try to maintain peace and harmony as it should as a great and civilized nation.  But at the same time to flex its military and economic muscle and demonstrate that it is determined and able to resist aggression.  Then China can avoid attracting needless problems by misleading bullies to attack China thinking it is weak while at the same time promote peace and friendship with those who bear China no ill will and are happy to cooperate with China for mutual benefits.

China must be more flexible and be able to deal properly with friends with friendship and resist bullies with force and punishment.  This is the mature way to conduct relationships.  Then China can be respected and befriended by peaceful people while avoiding misleading bullies to attack it. And China can speak with authority and be a force to preserve peace and justice in the world.
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