重口子宫贺氏丫太:中国统计数据频泄漏 发布方式引担忧

2011年 06月 22日 11:54
中国统计数据频泄漏 发布方式引担忧
评论(9)
中
国政府对经济数据频频泄密展开调查，此事彰显了中国统计数据常显混乱的发布方式所引发的担忧，这种数据发布状况会使内部人士得益，却会使交易员感到困惑并承受风险。
在国际市场上，虽然美国的经济数据依然最能引发市场波动，但由于中国是全球经济增长的最大推动力以及大宗商品的最大消费国，中国经济数据引发市场波动的能力已与美国数据相差不远。不仅在上海，就是在香港、东京和新加坡等市场，交易员们也会急切地等待中国有关工业生产、消费者价格和房地产投资的月度数据。由于世界各国的经济越来越相互交织在一起，有关中国经济的重大消息经常会使美国和欧洲市场产生波动。

中国经济数据提前泄漏的现象普遍存在，这使国内外交易员对数据做出有效应对的努力受到打击。数据泄密使内部人士可以提前得到能让市场产生波动的信息，而其他人则只能围着传言转。中国官方媒体新华社周二说，北京市人民检察院本周称，包括国家统计局一名秘书在内的五名政府官员正在因数据泄密问题接受调查。新华社说，这些数据显然是为了个人利益而泄漏给企业的。在中国，内幕交易属违法行为。
在美国，政府会竭尽全力来防止统计数据泄密。比如说，那些获准提前看到月度就业数据的新闻记者会被限制在一个房间内，在数据正式公布前他们与外界的手机联络将被切断。为解决数据泄密问题，中国政府正在采取措施来改进官方数据的发布程序。国家统计局发言人盛来运今年4月在一个新闻发布会上说，通过减少可提前接触到统计数据的官员数量以及缩短数据收集和发布的时间，应该能够减少数据泄漏事件的发生。
数据泄密使内部人士有机会预测市场对经济增长和通货膨胀等数据的变化做出的反应，并做出能够获利的交易决策。而对其他人来说，基于被泄漏数据的市场传言则会带来问题。上海一家外资银行的债券交易员说，市场必须评估这些传言的准确性。他说，假如你认为传言有 50%的可靠度，你可以将如果官方数据恰如传言所说时你会进行的交易先做它50%。
这类交易意味着，在统计数据公布前市场就已经在对这些数据做出反应了。台湾一家经纪公司驻上海的分析师说，在数据发布前好几个交易日它们就已经被市场所消化。2010年1月20日，中国股市下跌了3.1%，在此之后一天公布的重要数据显示中国的通货膨胀率出人意料地出现了上扬。在数据正式公布的1月21日，中国股市收盘时与前一交易日持平。当然，在包括美国在内的其他市场，投资者赶在经济消息发布前进行交易也是普遍现象，不过投资者进行交易所基于的通常是是市场预测，而不是被泄漏的官方数据。
摩根士丹利美邦（Morgan Stanley Smith Barney）的悉尼散户交易负责人布里奇斯（Shannon Briggs）说，中国发布经济数据的时间显然不如美国和欧洲的数据发布时间那么确定，如果中国经济数据的发布时间能够更加确定，这可能对所有人都更好。
RBS Equities驻悉尼董事总经理、国内销售交易及执行业务负责人加拉格尔(Justin Gallagher)说，中国越来越清楚有必要向金融市场披露信息。现在中国的经济数据不存在我们以前看到的草率问题了。即便如此，他指出，系统依然远远没有达到十全十美的程度。他说，我会说中国经济数据很准确地泄漏到了市场。
《人民日报》周二的一篇文章称财经新闻服务汤森路透 (Thomson Reuters)准确预测消费者价格指数(CPI)水平的能力堪比“章鱼保罗”。章鱼保罗是在2010年南非足球世界杯上对比赛结果预测神准的德国章鱼。汤森路透暂时不予置评。和很多新闻机构一样，汤森路透在数据发布前会发表预告文章，文章中会援引经济学家的估计和政府消息人士提供的信息。
4月份，国家统计局发言人盛来运在媒体上回应数据泄漏的问题时说，散布传播国家秘密是违法的，将对这类案件进行调查。
不过，由于中国新闻机构争相在官方经济数据发布前发新闻，他们构成了一个主要的泄露源。一家中国主要商业报纸的一位资深记者说，在官方数据发布前，国家统计局的高层官员向同时也是共产党员的资深记者通报了数据。
在中国媒体上，这类信息常常被报导为市场传言。国内外的一些民间数据机构看来也能提前获得官方数据，并向付费客户预先提供建议，这看起来是一种缺乏监管的灰色行为。
在官方发布主要通货膨胀和工业产值数据当日，中国新闻机构常常冲破禁令，提前几分钟发出含主要数据的标题。6月14日最新月度数据发布时，新华社“抢跑”，在上午9点57分宣布主要CPI数据，比10点官方发布早了三分钟。
过去几个月，中国新闻门户新浪网和凤凰卫视集团也冲破禁令，在官方发布日前宣布了主要数据。凤凰卫视集团与政府有着密切关系，运营着电视台和网站。
数据泄露加剧了对中国经济统计数据可靠性的质疑所带来的问题。在国家统计局公布2009年全国平均房价涨幅1.5%之后，这一数据受到了普遍的批评。数据与人们实际看到的更大涨幅相去甚远。国家统计局的回应方法是停止公布这一数据。
失业数据（在美国是市场关注的最大焦点）也被普遍认为具有误导性。过去10年，尽管经济增长严重混乱，中国官方公布的城市失业率从未低于3.6%，或高于4.3%。
CPI也受到了批评，人们普遍认为CPI没有体现消费价格的实际涨幅。食品价格飞速上涨已经成为中国家庭不满的一个主要原因，互联网上流传着一则笑话：统计局的同志不买菜。
A Chinese government probe into leaks of economic data has underlined concerns about the often chaotic way that statistics on the world's second-largest economy are released, which could benefit insiders but leaves traders confused and exposed.
In international markets, U.S. economic data are still the biggest market mover, but China is now running a close second as the world's most important driver of growth and biggest consumer of commodities. Monthly data on China's industrial output, consumer prices, and real-estate investment are eagerly awaited in trading rooms, not just in Shanghai but also in markets including Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore. With the global economy increasingly intertwined, major news on the Chinese economy often moves U.S. and European markets.
Attempts by both domestic and international traders to respond effectively to the data are frustrated by pervasive leaks that give insiders advance access to market-moving information, leaving others to chase rumors. The Beijing People's Procuratorate said this week that a secretary at the National Bureau of Statistics is one of five officials under investigation over data leaks, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency on Tuesday. Xinhua said the data were apparently leaked to companies for personal gain. Insider trading is against the law in China.
In the U.S., the authorities go to great lengths to safeguard similar data. Journalists who get advance views of the monthly jobs report, for example, are confined to a room with cellphones switched off until the embargo is lifted. To address leaks, China's government is taking steps to improve procedures for release of official data. At a news conference in April, National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Laiyun said that steps to cut the number of officials with advance access to the data and the time from collection to publication should reduce incidents of leaks.
Leaks give insiders an opportunity to anticipate the market reaction to shifts in growth and inflation and take a profitable trading position. For everybody else, market rumors based on leaked data present a problem. One bond trader at a foreign bank in Shanghai said the markets have to take a view on the accuracy of the rumor. 'If you think it's 50% reliable, you make 50% of the trades you would make if you actually saw the official data at that level' he said.
Such trades can mean the market reaction to the data comes before the data are released. One Shanghai-based analyst with a Taiwanese brokerage said, 'The markets have already priced in the data several sessions before it is released.' In 2010, the markets fell 3.1% on Jan. 20, the day before the release of key data showing a surprise uptick in inflation. On Jan. 21, the day of the data release, the markets closed flat. To be sure, trading ahead of economic news is also common in other markets, including in the U.S., though it is typically based on market predictions rather than leaks of official data.
'The timing of China's economic data is certainly not as clear as it is for data coming out of the U.S. and Europe,' said Shannon Briggs, who heads retail trading for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney in Sydney. 'It would probably be better for everyone if there was greater certainty around China's economic releases.'
Justin Gallagher, managing director and head of domestic sales trading and execution at RBS Equities in Sydney, said China increasingly understands the need to keep financial markets informed. 'You no longer have the flippancy we previously saw with China's economic data.' Even so, he noted that the system remains far from perfect: 'I would say that Chinese economic data are being pretty accurately leaked to the market,' he said.
An article in the official People's Daily on Tuesday refers to financial news service Thomson Reuters as 'Octopus Paul' for its ability to accurately predict the level of the consumer-price index, a reference to the German octopus that displayed an uncanny ability to predict the results of games in the 2010 soccer World Cup. Thomson Reuters─which like many news organizations publishes preview articles ahead of data releases citing estimates by economists as well as information from government sources─had no immediate comment.
In April, the statistics bureau's Mr. Sheng said in response to a question about data leaks in the media that the dissemination of 'state secrets' is against the law and such cases will be investigated.
However, Chinese news organizations are a major source of leaks as they compete to publish news on the economic data ahead of their official release. One senior journalist at a leading Chinese business paper said 'senior journalists, who are also Communist Party members, have been briefed on the data from high-level officials at the NBS ahead of official publication.'
Such information is often reported in the Chinese press as market rumors. Some private data agencies inside and outside China also appear to have early access to official data and offer advance views to paying customers in what appears to be an unregulated gray-area practice.
On the day of the official release of major inflation and industrial output figures, Chinese news organizations frequently break the embargo and send headlines with key data points a few minutes ahead of time. In the latest release of monthly data on 14th June, official news agency Xinhua jumped the gun, announcing the key consumer price index figure at 9:57 a.m.─three minutes before the official release at 10:00 a.m.
In past months, Chinese news portal Sina.com and Phoenix─a broadcaster and website with close links to the government─have also broken the embargo to announce key data before the official release date.
Data leaks compound problems caused by doubts about the reliability of China's economic statistics. Data on the change in the national average housing price were widely criticized after the NBS reported a 1.5% growth rate for 2009, a number grossly at odds with perceptions of much more rapid increases in prices on the ground. The response from the NBS was to cease publication of the series.
Unemployment data─the biggest focus of market attention in the U.S.─are also widely regarded as misleading. In the last decade, despite wrenching dislocations in growth, China's official urban unemployment rate has never fallen lower than 3.6% or risen higher than 4.3%.
The consumer-price index has also come in for criticism, with a widespread perception that it fails to capture the true extent of increases in consumer prices. With rapid increases in food prices one of the main sources of discontent for Chinese households, a joke doing the rounds on the Internet quips: 'The comrades at the statistical bureau don't buy vegetables.'
Tom Orlik