遵义县委书曾瑜丈夫:人民币升值，几家欢乐几家愁？

2011年 06月 02日 07:43人民币升值，几家欢乐几家愁？
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多年来，美国在人民币升值问题上的呼声最高，把推动人民币升值作为解决其长期对华贸易逆差的一个手段。但是到头来，人民币升值可能并不会给美国带来多大好处，而最大的受益者反而可能是那些与中国争当世界廉价工厂的其他新兴经济体。

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经济学家指出，由于最近人民币兑美元升值，再加上中国国内工资水平和总体通货膨胀上升，一些基本商品出口产业已开始被挤出中国。这些企业正在转向那些生产成本更低、外汇汇率不会抑制出口的国家。

人民币升值后，中国出口商品的美元标价会更高，对美国消费者的吸引力将没有以前那么大，这的确可能有助于降低中国对美国的贸易顺差。但美国总体贸易形势却可能不会因此有太大改观，因为尽管进口自中国的商品减少了，但来自其他新兴市场的产品将取而代之。新加坡星展银行(DBS BankLtd.)经济和货币研究部主管David Carbon表示，那种简单认为人民币升值会扭转美国贸易逆差格局的想法过于天真，根本站不住脚。

制造业迁移

Carbon指出，从大的背景来看，人民币升值现象背后所揭示的是低端出口产品制造业的迁移。这一过程自第二次世界大战开始，现在仍在继续，未来还将持续很长一段时间。最初低端产品制造业的大本营是日本，之后转移到新加坡、香港、韩国和台湾，最后又转移到中国大陆。Carbon认为，接下来可能该轮到印度和越南了。

本币的疲软使越南成为人民币升值最明显的受益者之一，人民币兑越南盾在过去一年中累计升值了14.9%。荷兰国际集团(ING GroepNV)亚洲区首席经济学家TimCondon表示，中国的一些夕阳产业在越南等国正成为朝阳产业。他指出，纺织品制造就是最有可能转移生产基地的产业之一。

美国也能从这一大的潮流中获得一些利益。如果生产转移到更为廉价的市场，那么人民币升值后，中国商品价格上涨可能给美国带来通货膨胀压力的问题也就不足为虑了。

日本也是赢家

日本也可以从人民币持续升值中获益，不过方式与越南不同。日本经济倚重于高科技、高附加值出口产品的生产，如混合动力汽车、专业制造设备等等，而中国还没有直接参与这些领域的竞争。因此，人民币升值给日本带来的最大好处并不在于它可以增强日本的竞争力、从中国手中抢占世界其他市场，而是日本将有更大机会将产品出口到中国。

不过人民币兑日圆并未升值：人民币兑美元自去年6月以来累计升值5.2%，而同期人民币兑日圆反而贬值了5.4%。

但Carbon相信这种趋势会发生改变。他说，日本3月大地震和海啸之后七大工业国(G7)曾联手干预汇市，这表明日本政府决心捍卫1美元兑80日圆的水平（离当前水平相去不远），不会允许日圆大幅升值，以保护出口商的利益，帮助日本重振经济。因此，如果人民币兑美元持续走高，人民币兑日圆最终也会逐渐走强。

人民币兑日圆升值之后，日本出口到中国的商品价格就会更低，这样，日本对华贸易顺差就有可能在去年496亿美元（中方发布的数据）的基础上继续扩大。日本对华出口的扩大将有助于弥补日圆兑美元走强给日本对美贸易带来的损失，并进而减小这一损失给日本经济带来的影响。Condon认为，之所以2008-09年全球金融市场危机和经济衰退过后日本复苏乏力，就是因为日圆走强给日本经济带来不利影响

Who Gains, Who Loses?

For years, the U.S. has been the most vocal advocate of yuanappreciation, as part of its efforts to address its persistent tradedeficit with China. But in the end a stronger yuan may do the U.S.little good. The biggest beneficiaries may turn out to be other emergingeconomies vying to compete with China as low-cost production centers.

Theyuan's recent gains against the dollar, along with rising wages andgeneral inflation in China, are starting to push some basic exportindustries out of that country, economists say. Those businesses aremoving to countries where expenses are even lower and foreign-exchangerates don't threaten to crimp exports.

So, yes, the yuan'sappreciation may help shrink the Chinese trade surplus with the U.S. bymaking goods from China more expensive in dollars and therefore lessattractive to U.S. customers. But its overall impact on U.S. trade maynot be that great, as imports from other emerging markets replace thoseno longer coming from China. 'The simple idea that the [yuan] is goingto make a swing to the U.S. trade balance just doesn't add up,' saysDavid Carbon, head of economics and currency research at Singapore-basedDBS Bank Ltd.

Moving Out

The bigger story, Mr.Carbon says, is the migration of low-end export manufacturing, 'anongoing process'' that has been going on since World War II 'and willcontinue on for a long time.' It started with Japan, then moved toSingapore and Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan, and eventually China.'The guys who are left below China and could be coming up are India andVietnam,' Mr. Carbon says.

Vietnam stands out as one of theclearest beneficiaries of yuan appreciation because of the weakness ofits currency, the dong. Over the past year, the yuan has risen 14.9%against the dong. 'There are sunset industries in China now, and forthose industries the sun is rising in countries like Vietnam,' says TimCondon, chief Asia economist for ING Groep NV. Textile manufacturers areamong those most likely to make such a move, he says.

There issome benefit to the U.S. in this trend. If production moves to cheapermarkets, then higher prices for goods from China because of a strongeryuan aren't likely to be a major contributor to inflation in the U.S.

Japan Wins, Too

Japanalso could benefit from continued yuan appreciation, in a different wayfrom Vietnam. It thrives by producing high-technology, high-value-addedexports like hybrid vehicles and specialist manufacturing equipment,fields where China isn't yet a direct competitor. So the biggest benefitto Japan of a dearer yuan isn't a greater ability to compete with Chinain selling to the rest of the world. Rather, it is the growingopportunity to export goods to China.

The yuan hasn't beengaining on the Japanese yen, though. Indeed, while the Chinese currencyhas risen around 5.2% against the dollar since last June, it has fallen5.4% against the yen.

But Mr. Carbon believes that could change.Intervention in the currency markets by the Group of Seven leadingnations in the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami in Marchshows a determination not to let the yen appreciate much beyond 80 perdollar, not far from its current level, to protect Japanese exporters asthe country struggles to recover, he says. Thus, if the yuan continuesto gain on the dollar, it eventually will start to gradually riseagainst the yen as well, Mr. Carbon says.

That would makeJapanese goods cheaper in China, perhaps allowing Japan to build on the$49.6 billion trade surplus it had with China last year, according toChinese data. An increase in Japanese exports to China would help offsetthe damage that the yen's strength against the dollar has done toJapan's trade with the U.S.and the effect of that damage on the Japaneseeconomy. Mr. Condon blames currency factors for the weakness of Japan'srecovery from the global financial-market crash and recession of2008-09.

Aaron Back

Mr. Back is the deputy bureau chief for Dow Jones Newswires in China. He can be reached at aaron.back@dowjones.com.