造梦西游4蜃楼城小怪:Managing China’s rapid rise

来源：百度文库编辑：九乡新闻网时间：2024/04/28 14:52:44

Managing China’s rapid rise

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2011-6-4 09:20

China has rapidly become a 'rich-poor' country that defies easy categorization, and the impact of its dramatic but uneven growth has created many challenges. China's future path appears frustratingly unpredictable to the outside world, but one certainty remains: China will continue to need the rest of the world as much as it needs China.

Since 2001, China has doubled the size of its economy, taking its place as the world's second largest. Predictions vary about when it might overtake the US to become the world's largest economy, ranging from 2016 (the IMF) to 2032 (Goldman Sachs). With a growth rate of 11 percent in 2010, its ability to continue its impressive climb well into the next decade, barring catastrophe, looks assured.

Internally, China is caught between viewing itself as a developing country, with a per capita GDP that places it, 127th in the world, and an economic superpower with $2.7 trillion of foreign reserves in its central bank. As such, it is both weak and strong. The priority of the Communist Party and the government is to continue lifting people from poverty, creating prosperity and improving infrastructure. They are focused in particular on tackling the increasing inequality between social groups.

Despite these dramatic disparities in wealth, the government has chosen to focus on increasing its military expenditure year on year by 17 percent since 2005. Its influence now stretches to Africa and Latin America, where it is a major importer and investor. In Central Asia, it has become a huge trade and investment partner. Its en- ergy and resource hunger has reconfigured geopolitics. From that point of view, despite what the current Chinese leadership says, it looks the opposite of a poor, developing country.

The seeming paradox between China being per capita poor, but on aggregate rich, creates a number of competing frameworks within which other countries and actors try to fit the country. The first is to view it as a status quo power: one that, in its own words, wishes to rise peacefully; stands by its principles of non-interference in the affairs of others; and does not wish to practice hegemony. The second framework is, on the contrary, to see China as a disruptive power - a country whose huge growth trajectory is almost certain to bring it into conflict over resources in the coming decades, and give it plenty of reason to seek some form of revenge. The third and final framework is that China in fact offers a positive model, something for other developing countries to aspire to. In this scenario, China's rise is win-win. It simply offers a different power center to US-led hegemony.

China does not fit easily into any category for a number of reasons. The impact of very rapid growth and economic change in the country has thrown up many challenges. It has created sharper divisions in society, leading to increased tensions. There are massive challenges over the very sustainability of the economic model it has pursued. A country the size of Europe, its fragmentation cannot be underestimated. It has huge social, cultural, economic and developmental variety. Finding a coherent narrative within which to fit this combination of already extant complexity - compounded by rapid technical and economic change - has proved difficult not just for outsiders, but for the Chinese and their leadership as well.

In some ways, China's behavior may become more erratic, as it veers between what is seen as assertiveness and passivity, guided mostly by internal motivations. No dominant narrative or framework can be created easily within which to set the country. Its immense economy means it cannot be ignored. Policymakers will need to be clearer than ever before about the areas of engagement. Their belief that China is a stakeholder in the global order will be tested. The fundamental principle, however, that China needs the world as much as the world needs China. China and the rest of the world need to seek an accommodation with which they can both live. (International Relations and Security Network)

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