赣锋锂业同花顺:China and social stability

Published: April 28 2011

As trouble has spread across the Middle East, China’s leaders have rubbished any parallels between it and those authoritarian states. Wednesday’s population census, the first for ten years, shows both the soundness and the flaws in their reasoning.

Thanks in large part to its one-child policy, China certainly has a less restivepopulation. The median Chinese, at 34 years old, is ten years olderthan the median resident of the Middle East; if Beijing faced a Jasminemoment, it was ten years ago, when the median age was 25, in line withEgypt, Saudi Arabia and Libya now.

Jobsare more plentiful, too: unemployment has averaged just over 4 per centover the last decade, a third the rate of Syria. Meanwhile, ageneration of males has grown up aspiring to own property – often as ameans to secure that precious commodity, a wife (all those aborted female foetuseshave caused an unusual gender mix within China, with 34m more men thanwomen). The country, in short, has a dwindling supply of the demographicstock most likely to stir unrest: young, unemployed and unmarried men,still living at home with their families.

That doesn’t mean the Politburo can rest easy. As the recent protests over fuel costs made clear, steady jobs and rising incomes are not the only conditions for social stability. Food inflation runs periodically rampant, reaching double-digit figures three times since 2004.

Andas economist Ben Simpfendorfer points out, low-income housing nowaccounts for just 3 per cent of total housing construction, down from 16per cent a decade ago.

Such imbalances are especially tough onmigrants to big cities, the fuel for China’s economic growth, whotypically earn less and find it harder to get bank credit. Yet stillthey come: China’s urban population now makes up almost half of thetotal, 13 percentage points higher than a decade ago. China’s youth isdocile, for now. It will remain restrained as long as prices are.