贵阳阿波罗男科:美元正在加速下跌

2011年 04月 25日 09:44美元正在加速下跌
评论(10)
受低利率、通胀担忧和联邦巨额预算赤字的影响，美元正在加快下跌。

由于美元在其中任何一个方面都看不到喘息的机会，人们普遍预计美元将会继续承受贬值压力。

上周美元对一篮子货币下跌近1%，前一周也是同样的下跌幅度。洲际交易所美元指数(ICE U.S. Dollar Index)收于金融危机加剧前夕、2008年8月以来的最低水平

Oppenheimer货币机会基金(Oppenheimer Currency Opportunities Fund)经理隆吉(Alessio de Longis)说，美元就是没有任何利好因素。

美元下跌的主因是美国维持着低利率，同时国外利率更高，而且是处在上升过程中。利率更低，意味着现金回报更低。而下周来自这个方面的压力可能会变得更大，因为届时美联储(FederalReserve)的利率决策委员会估计将会暗示，美国未来很多月份的短期利率可能将继续维持在接近于零的水平。按计划，美联储主席贝南克(BenBernanke)将在周三召开联储有史以来第一场紧随议息会议的新闻发布会。

然而让美元加快下跌的，却是人们对美国预算赤字的担忧。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)上周一的一个警告吓坏了投资者。它说，考虑到奥巴马政府和国会共和党人可能无法在大幅削减赤字的问题上达成一致，它可能将取消美国政府宝贵的AAA评级。

另外，中国政府官员已经在以更高的声调暗示他们可能将分散其3万亿美元的外汇储备、降低美元资产的比重。这样一种变化将会削弱美元近些年的一个重要买盘来源。

近几周中国一直在允许人民币稳步升值。这给美元构成了两个方面的挑战。首先，北京越是允许人民币升值，它通过购入美元抵消人民币升值的必要性也就越少。其次，和中国存在出口竞争关系的其他亚洲国家可能也会允许本币对美元升值。

华盛顿一直在敦促北京允许人民币对美元和其他货币升值，以实现帮助减少美国贸易赤字等目的。但美元如果是持续贬值，对于美国经济来说则会成为一把双刃剑。

美元走低对于美国出口企业来说是个利好，因为它使出口产品的价格更有竞争力。这已经成为科技企业和制造企业的一个助推力。要是没有这些亮点行业，美国经济的复苏将是缓慢艰难的。

自从2009年第三季度美国经济开始复苏以来，出口为全国3.0%的年化增长率贡献了大约1.4个百分点，这是有记录以来外贸在18个月时间段内的最大增长贡献。

但随着石油出口国试图调高原油的美元价格以抵消美元价值的缩水，美元贬值会使美国进口石油价格上涨，给已经捉襟见肘的消费者造成打击。

从某种程度上讲，一些美国官员认为美元的贬值是美国与迅速增长的发展中国家之间增速悬殊的必然结果。贝南克和美国财政部长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)从未表示过他们希望改变立场。

摩根富林明资产管理(JPMorgan Asset Management)首席市场策略师帕特森(Rebecca Patterson)预计，美国当局不会出手干预、防止美元走软，除非有证据表明疲弱的美元会给股市造成损失。

她说，美国历来只有在美元的走势开始波及其他资产时，才会积极干预外汇市场。美国选民更加关心股市和401(k)退休福利。只有美元开始对股市和退休福利造成影响时，财政部才会更加关注美元。

令政府可以感到安心的一点是，美元的贬值一直是有序的。美元兑一篮子货币较去年同期贬值9.1%。2003年和2004年，也就是贝南克的前任格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)实施 低利率的时期，美元兑一篮子货币每年贬值近10%。

尽管美元的走软将有助于推动复苏进程，但也会令公众对通货膨胀和美国在全球舞台上削弱的地位明显感到担心。疲弱的美元能够帮助推高以美元计算的油价，进而推高汽油零售价，加剧眼下奥巴马面临的另一个政治问题。盖洛普(Gallup)4月份的一项民意调查显示，有42%的受访美国人对美联储将采取正确的经济政策信心微乎其微或没有信心，有43%的受访者对盖特纳信心微乎其微或没有信心。

据跟踪美元兑一篮子货币汇率的指数显示，上周美元汇率创下2008年金融危机以来的最低点。危机爆发前，在持续六年的稳步贬值期间，美元兑一揽子货币累计贬值逾40%，当时推动美元贬值的因素与目前造成美元走软的很多因素相同。美元只要再跌5%，就会达到据美元指数纪录2008年3月创下的有史以来最低点。美元指数跟踪的数据可以追溯至1971年。

鉴于美元最大的对手欧盟和日本面临的问题，美元走软的程度就更加惊人。有越来越多的人预计，2010年曾需要其他欧元区国家救助的希腊未来几个月将被迫重组债务。希腊债务重组可能会给欧洲持有希腊债务的银行带来损失──这一事件可能被视为对欧元不利。

日本正努力从地震和随后的核灾难中恢复。日本的灾难对经济的打击目前看来似乎还要持续数月。最大的受益者是黄金和其他大宗商品。上周黄金首次突破每盎司1,500美元的关口。

The U.S. dollar's downward slide is accelerating as low interest rates,inflation concerns and the massive federal budget deficit undermine thecurrency.

With no relief in sight for the dollar on any of thosefronts, the downward pressure on the dollar is widely expected tocontinue.

The dollar fell nearly 1% against a broad basket ofcurrencies this week, following a drop of similar size last week. TheICE U.S. Dollar Index closed at its lowest level since August 2008,before the financial crisis intensified.

'The dollar just hasn'thad anything positive going for it,' said Alessio de Longis, whooversees the Oppenheimer Currency Opportunities Fund.

The maindriver for the dollar's decline is low interest rates in the U.S.compared with higher and rising rates abroad. Lower rates mean a lowerreturn on cash─and the pressure from that factor could intensify nextweek when the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee is expected tosignal that U.S. short-term rates will likely remain near zero for manymonths to come. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled togive the central bank's first-ever press conference following apolicy-setting meeting.
But it is worry about the U.S. budget deficitthat is intensifying the selloff. On Monday, investors were spooked by awarning from Standard & Poor's that it might take away the U.S.government's coveted AAA rating status amid concerns the Obamaadministration and Republicans in Congress might not be able to agree tosignificant reductions in the deficit.

In addition, Chinesegovernment officials have stepped up rhetoric hinting they mightdiversify their $3 trillion of currency reserves away from U.S. dollars.Such a shift would chip away at what has been a substantial source ofdollar-buying in recent years.

China has in recent weeks beenallowing its currency, the yuan, to appreciate steadily. This poses twochallenges to the dollar. First, the more Beijing lets its currencyrise, the less it needs to buy dollars to offset yuan strength. Second,other Asian countries that compete with China for exports may also allowtheir currencies to strengthen against the dollar.

Washingtonhas been pushing Beijing to let the yuan rise against the dollar andother currencies, in order, among other things, to help reduce the U.S.trade deficit. But a continued decline in the value of the dollar is adouble-edged sword for the U.S. economy.

A weaker dollar is aboon for U.S. exporters by making their goods more competitively priced.This has been a tailwind for technology companies and manufacturers, abright spot in the otherwise slow economic recovery.

Since therecovery started in the third quarter of 2009, exports have contributedabout 1.4 percentage points to the nation's 3.0% annualized growth rate,marking trade's biggest share of growth over an 18-month stretch onrecord.

But a weaker dollar hits strained consumers by raisingthe cost of imported oil, as exporters seek higher dollar-denominatedcrude prices to offset the dollar's waning value.

To a certainextent, some U.S. officials see the dollar's decline as the inevitableresult of disparate growth rates between the U.S. and the fast-growingdeveloping world. Mr. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithnerhave given no indication they want to alter their stance.

RebeccaPatterson, chief markets strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management,doesn't foresee U.S. authorities intervening to stop the dollar's fall,unless there's evidence the weak dollar is taking a toll on the stockmarket.

'The U.S. historically has only gotten active in thecurrency market when the dollar moves were spilling over into otherassets,' she says. 'American voters care a lot more about stocks andtheir 401(k)s. If the dollar starts to undermine that, that's when theTreasury Department pays more attention.'

One source of comfortfor the government is that the dollar's decline has been orderly.Against a broad basket of currencies, the dollar is down 9.1% from ayear ago. In 2003 and 2004─a period of very low interest ratesengineered by Mr. Bernanke's predecessor, Alan Greenspan─it registeredannual declines of closer to 10%.

While the weaker currency ishelping to drive the recovery, it has also contributed to palpablepublic worries about inflation and the diminished standing of the U.S.on a global stage. The weak currency helps to drive up the price of oilin dollar terms, and therefore gasoline at the pump, exacerbatinganother political problem for Mr. Obama at the moment. An April Galluppoll found that 42% of Americans surveyed had little to no faith thatthe Fed would do the right thing for the economy, and 43% had little tono faith in Mr. Geithner.

This past the week, the dollar, asmeasured by the index that tracks it against a basket of currencies, hitits lowest point since the 2008 financial crisis. Before the crisisbegan, the dollar had lost more than 40% of its value against the basketduring a steady six-year decline, driven by many of the same factorsbedeviling the currency today. The dollar is 5% away from its all-timelow, hit in March 2008, as tracked by the dollar index, which dates backto 1971.

The dollar's weakness is even more striking in the faceof the struggles facing the European Union and Japan, the U.S.currency's biggest rivals. Expectations are growing that Greece, whichrequired a bailout from other euro-zone countries in 2010, will incoming months be forced to restructure its debt obligations. That couldinflict losses on banks across Europe holding those bonds─an event thatmight be seen as a negative for the euro.

Japan is struggling torecover from the earthquake and subsequent nuclear disaster. Theeconomic toll from the tragedy now looks as if it may play out formonths. The biggest beneficiaries have been gold, which crossed $1,500an ounce for the first time this week, and other commodities.