时代周刊：德国是怎样成为欧洲之中国的（二）

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于2011-03-02 18:49:22翻译 | 已有234人浏览

德国现在之角色从很多方面讲，都很像中国。他们都是为世界带来裨益和不安的生产行业巨无霸。

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Europe's China

欧洲的中国

Inmany respects, Germany's role in the world economy is similar toChina's. Both are manufacturing monsters that are bringing instabilityas well as benefits to the world. Because of its export machine,Germany, like China, runs up a humongous current-account surplus, whileits less competitive neighbors, like Spain, have fallen into deepdeficits.

德国现在之角色从很多方面讲，都很像中国。他们都是为世界带来裨益和不安的生产行业巨无霸。德国的出口就像隆隆作响的机器，使他们拥有巨额贸易经常帐盈余，这一点特别相仿中国，而相对疲软的邻国如西班牙等却深陷贸易赤字。

Thesedifferences are at the heart of Europe's debt crisis. Many in the zoneblame Germany's export-dependent economy for the region's economic woes,in the same way that Washington accuses China of hampering the U.S.recovery. Unless the economies of Europe are brought into betterbalance, some economists fear, the region could get stuck in alow-growth pattern that could make the debt crisis harder to resolve,threatening the future of the entire monetary union. Mimicking theargument Washington makes about China, Germany's European partnersbelieve Berlin has to alter its model to better support regional growth.The European Commission, the E.U.'s governing body, has called onsurplus nations like Germany to stimulate consumer spending at home inorder to help support the E.U. economy as a whole. French FinanceMinister Christine Lagarde has complained that Germany must show "asense of common destiny" and reform its economy for the good of Europe.

经济差距正是欧洲债务危机的核心所在。德国的出口型经济被指责造成该地区经济困境，华盛顿也是这样将美国经济复苏乏力归罪于中国的。一些经济学者担心，如果不能尽快解决好欧洲经济平衡问题，该地区将落入低增长状态，从而使债务问题更加棘手，危及欧元区前途。正如中美贸易争端，德国的欧洲同僚们认为德国应该改进增长模式，以支持本地区发展。欧盟的领导机构欧盟委员会，号召像德国这样的贸易盈余国家积极扩大内需从而支持整个欧盟经济。法国财政克里斯汀.拉加德抱怨说，德国应该拿出一些同呼吸共命运的意识，为欧洲前途着想。

Berlin, however, believesGerman exports are good not just for Germany but for all of Europe.Much like China in Asia, Germany sits at the center of a network ofregional suppliers that feed its export industries with parts and otherresources. The more German factories export, the more they suck in fromGermany's neighbors, sparking growth well beyond its borders. Kampeterpoints out that German imports from the rest of the euro zone areexpanding more quickly than Germany's exports to the region — 16.7% vs.12.7% in 2010. "A growing Germany is better for the E.U. and the worldeconomy than a Germany that is a shrinking economic power," he says. InGerman eyes, the answer to Europe's woes isn't a Germany that exportsless but reform in the weaker economies to make them healthier and morecompetitive.

柏林方面却认为，德国出口繁荣不仅利好德国，而且有益于欧洲；像中国一样，德国也处于一个出口供给网络的中心，德国出口越是增加，从邻国需求越大，就越能推动邻国经济发展。康彼得指出，德国自欧元区其他国家进口额增长速度要大于其出口到这些国家的贸易额增长速度--在2010年，前者是16.7%，后者是12.7%。他说：“对欧盟和世界更有利的是一个经济增长的德国，而不是一个经济缩水的德国。”在德国人眼中，为欧洲抒困的万全之策不是减少德国出口，而是改革弱小经济体，使之步入健康的和有竞争力的轨道。

The German Model

德国模式

It's a strong point. While the Spanish, Irish and other Europeans weregorging on debt, building too many houses and giving themselves fat payraises, Germans were busy fixing their economy. German companies pouredmoney into R&D and cut expenses. Loosening up the tightly regulatedlabor market to make it easier for firms to hire and fire helped. Unioncooperation meant Germany was the only major European economy thatreduced labor costs for several years after 2005. Germany churns outspecialized products of such superior quality, from BMW sports cars toKärcher cleaning equipment, that customers will pay extra for the "Madein Germany" label. That has kept the country in front of emergingeconomies like China's and helped it benefit from their rapid growth.German exports to China surged 45% in the first 10 months of 2010. Infact, Germany is the only major industrialized country other than Japanin which exports are playing a significantly larger role in the economy —41% of GDP in 2009, from 33% in 2000. German industry may provide ananswer to one of the thorniest economic issues facing the developedworld: how to maintain manufacturing competitiveness against low-costemerging economies. Germany "is a road map for the U.S. and othercountries," says Bernd Venohr, a Munich-based business consultant.

这是个优势。正当西班牙、爱尔兰等其他欧洲国家债务膨胀，大肆建房和发薪，德国人却在默不作声地修补经济漏洞。德国企业都在注资研发，削减开支。宽松的劳动力市场监管让他们在就业市场游刃有余。良好的工会合作关系使德国成为唯一个自2005年以来劳动力成本下降的欧洲国家。也就是德国能够造就出像宝马跑车和凯驰清洁器这样的顶级品质，而消费者为了它们的“德国制造”标签要付出额外高价。实际上，德国是除日本以外的唯一一个出口占经济最大比重的工业化国家--2009年出口占GDP的比例是41%，而在2000年只有33%。德国工业也许为发达国家最棘手的经济难题提供了一个解决方案，那就是：在面对来自新兴经济体的低成本优势，怎样保持生产的竞争力。“德国为美国和其他国家提供了一个路线图，”BerndVenohr，一家位于慕尼黑的商业咨询师如是说。

German executives andpolicymakers also found inventive ways to ensure that factories kepttheir edge during the Great Recession. And the nation prevented the sortof large-scale layoffs the U.S. endured during the recession with ashort-term work program in which the government subsidized firms to keepworkers. At the program's peak, in 2009, more than 1.4 million workerswere involved. At BASF's chemicals complex in Ludwigshafen, engineersworked furiously to keep the multibillion-dollar machinery runningsmoothly as production dwindled. At one of the facilities, demand forits ethylene and other chemicals sank from 100% of capacity to a mere14% in just 100 days in late 2008. Unable to shut down superhotmachinery in winter — the pipes could have frozen, causing costly damage— the plant's engineers kept the facility operating through acomplicated recycling scheme. Instead of laying off cherished staff,management deployed idled workers to new assignments. Bernhard Nick, aBASF president, believes the measures taken during the downturn kept thecompany primed to capitalize on the recovery. "It wasn't just a familyfeeling or being nice to each other," he says. "Even the normal shiftworkers have such a high skill level, it is not so easy to lay them off.You lose a lot of knowledge, which would give you big problems startingup again."

德国的执行官和决策者们在保证工厂处于大衰退期仍不懈怠方面也有创新思维。美国人司空见惯的衰退期大幅裁员，在德国被成功避免，有效方法是政府为企业提供补贴以便继续雇用工人。在2009年该项目的高峰期，超过一百四十万工人受益。在巴斯夫位于路德维希港的化工厂，产量下降了，工程师们还要忙不迭地保养那些价值上亿美元的昂贵设备。2008年末，在巴斯夫的一个工厂里，乙烯及其他化工产品订单在短短100天内下降到产能的14%。这些高温作业的机器在冬天是不能关闭的--那会意味着管子被冻坏，机器被毁掉--工程师们用一种复杂的循环使用技术使之运行无碍。为了不削减宝贵的人力资源，管理层对闲置工人另行委派。巴斯夫的一位总裁伯纳德.尼克认为，他们在经济低迷期所做的工作使公司更加充分地迎接经济复苏。“（拒绝解雇）不只是一个类似家庭般的感情或者与人为善的问题，”他说：“即使是普通倒班工人也具有如此高的技术素质，你会忍心辞掉他们吗？那会意味着你失去智力支持，你会面临更严峻的困难。”

Crisis Mismanagement

危机管理不善

The successes are prodding the rest of Europe to become more German bycopying Berlin's reforms. French President Nicolas Sarkozy stared downprotesters late last year and raised the retirement age by two years — astep Germany took in 2007. In June, Spain's Prime Minister, José LuisRodríguez Zapatero, pushed through the parliament a labor-reform bill,aiming, like Germany, to reduce the nation's perpetually highunemployment. But catching Germany won't be easy. Since Germany and itsneighbors all use the euro, the zone's weaker economies can't employ thesimplest tool to regain competitiveness — depreciating one's currency,which is the U.S.'s preferred way of reducing its trade deficit withChina — and instead must suppress wages and costs.

 柏林的成功迫使欧洲其他国家纷纷效仿。法国总统尼古拉.萨科奇面对去年末的骚乱，只好将法定退休年龄提高两年，此事德国已经在2007年完成。2010年6月西班牙总理何塞.路易.罗德里格斯.萨帕特洛敦促议会签署劳动力改革法案，目的也像德国一样，降低该国长期居高的失业率。但是赶超德国并非易事。因为德国及其邻国都在使用同一货币欧元，弱小经济体很难通过货币贬值的简单方法来重获竞争力（而美国正在使用如此伎俩以减少其对中国的贸易逆差），他们只能压缩工资和开支。