短线观点：中国通胀的“炼金效应”

Short view

When the indebted King Henry VI was struggling to hold England together in the 15th century, his advisers thought alchemy – turning lead into gold – might be a solution.

十五世纪，当债务缠身的英国国王亨利六世(Henry VI)奋力拯救英格兰时，他的谋士们认为，炼金术（把铅变成黄金）可能是一个解决办法。

The US Federal Reserve’s financial alchemy appears to have succeeded where Henry’s magicians failed, at least in transforming the price of base metals into gold.

亨利六世的魔法师们失败了，但美联储(Fed)的金融炼金术却好像取得了成功，至少在把贱金属价格变成黄金价格方面是这样。

Lead has soared since Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, raised the idea of more quantitative easing at the end of August, rising just under 20 per cent. Copper and other base metals have also been transmuted: copper and gold have performed almost exactly alike.

自美联储主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)8月底提出会进一步实行定量宽松以来，铅价已大幅上涨，涨幅接近20%。铜和其它贱金属也变了模样：铜和黄金的表现几乎完全一样。

For the goldbugs worried that the Fed’s QE2 is about to take the US on a trip back to the inflationary 1970s, this is merely a side effect of the rush for inflation protection. Real assets such as commodities are regarded as among the best way of insuring against inflation, although the market only believes QE2 will lead to slightly higher US inflation.

对于担心美联储的二次定量宽松将让美国回归上世纪70年代通胀之旅的黄金投资者而言，这不过是投资者涌向通胀保护的副作用。尽管市场相信，二次定量宽松只会造成美国通胀率略有上升，但大宗商品等实物资产仍被视为抗击通胀的最佳方式之一。

Not only the Fed’s financial alchemy is at work, though. Since 2005, when China’s insatiable appetite for commodities was recognised, the price of industrial materials has moved broadly in line with Chinese manufacturing.

然而，施展金融炼金术的不只是美联储。自2005年人们意识到中国对大宗商品渴求无度的需求以来，工业材料价格的走势便与中国的制造业基本保持一致。

The spot price of copper approached its $9,000-a-tonne 2008 peak last week, a fortnight after China’s purchasing managers’ index showed unexpectedly strong manufacturing growth.

两周前，中国的采购经理人指数(PMI)显示，中国制造业出现意外强劲的增长。到上周，现货铜价已逼近2008年每吨9000美元的峰值。

The effects of QE have begun to fade. The dollar leapt over the past week, while 10-year Treasury bond yields soared.

定量宽松的影响已开始消退。过去一周，美元汇率飙升，10年期美国国债收益率亦大幅上涨。

At the same time, China is grappling with inflation, which reached 4.4 per cent in October. Beijing did not raise rates at the weekend, as many had expected, but it can only be a matter of time before it takes stronger action to cool the economy. Until then, stretched supply suggests prices can rise further. Longer term, the outlook for commodities now depends on whether China can slow growth without conjuring up a crash.

与此同时，中国正在与通胀作斗争。今年10月，中国的通胀率达到4.4%。中国政府没有像很多人预期的那样在上周末加息，但中国采取更强有力的措施令经济降温可能只是一个时间问题。在此之前，紧张的供应意味着物价可能会进一步上涨。就更长期而言，大宗商品的前景如今取决于中国能否在不造成崩盘的情况下放慢经济增长步伐。

译者/梁艳裳