色彩三原色调出三间色:【中国de新“门神”】

Two fierce warriors guard the entrance to many Chinese temples. Usually depicted in full armour and painted on the front doors, both spirits were generals who helped unite China under the Tang dynasty and take it to the peak of its power and glory 1,400 years ago.

中国许多寺庙的入口处，都立着两尊凶神恶煞的门神。门神通常一身戎装，被画在前门上。二人均为1400年前的唐朝开国大将，帮助一代王朝登上权力和荣耀的巅峰。

One of them, Qin Qiong, lives on not just as a door god but as a patron saint of Chinese military strategy. Qin’s sleeve concealed a spear-like weapon, used to behead enemy soldiers with one surprise stroke.

其中一位便是秦琼。他不仅被尊为门神，还是中国兵法的守护神。秦琼的袖中藏着一种外形类似矛的武器——锏，出其不意间便可取敌人首级。

Referred to in historical novels as an “assassin’s mace”, the weapon that can deal a fatal blow to otherwise superior enemies remains a core part of modern Chinese military doctrine.

在历史小说里，这种武器被称为“撒手锏”，可以在不制强敌之时反手予以致命一击。即使在中国当代兵法里，撒手锏仍然是核心内容。

Although China lags far behind the US in most areas of military technology, its military appears to be closing in on at least one such wonder weapon.

尽管在军事科技的大多数领域，中国都远远落后于美国，但中国军方似乎很快就会拥有至少一件如此神奇的武器。

According to Admiral Robert Willard, commander of US forces in the Pacific, the People’s Liberation Army has achieved “initial operational capability” for a land-based anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that could threaten US aircraft carriers in Asian waters. The Dongfeng (East Wind) 21D is intended to end an era of unrivalled US global sea and air power.

据美军太平洋司令部司令罗伯特•威拉德上将(Admiral Robert Willard)称，中国人民解放军(PLA)的一种路基反舰弹道导弹东风-21D已具备“初步作战能力”，可能对亚洲海域的美国航母构成威胁。东风-21D导弹旨在终结美国独霸全球海空领域的时代。

In an interview with the FT, Admiral Gary Roughead, US chief of naval operations, apppeared to backtrack slightly from his colleague’s estimate, saying the ASBM could be in “in play” in the “next couple of years”.

美国海军作战部长加里•罗海德上将(Admiral Gary Roughead)与其同仁的判断似乎略有不同。他在接受英国《金融时报》的一次采访时表示，这种导弹可能在“未来几年”内“投入使用”。

“This is a game-changer in the sense that it would force the US Navy to operate farther away [from the Chinese coast], at least in the initial phase of a conflict,” says Mark Stokes, a security analyst and former official at the Pentagon.

国家安全分析人士、前五角大楼官员石明凯(Mark Stokes)表示：“这种武器将迫使美国海军进一步远离（中国海岸线），至少在冲突的最初阶段如此。从这个意义上讲，这可谓是游戏规则改变者。”

While Chinese military officials are reluctant to discuss the missile system, detailed debate in Chinese military journals and state media makes clear that US aircraft carriers are the Dongfeng’s primary target. It is part of broader attempt at “area denial” – to keep US forces out of waters and airspace China sees as being within its own sphere of influence – and is consistent with a broader strategy of asymmetric warfare, which seeks to exploit a superior enemy’s weaknesses.

尽管中国军方官员不愿谈论这套导弹系统，但中国军事杂志和官方媒体上详尽的辩论表明，美国航母就是东风导弹的主要目标。这是中国更广泛的“区域封锁”努力——将美军驱逐出在中国看来属于自己势力范围的海域和领空——的一部分，并符合一种试图利用强敌之弱点的“非对称战争”的整体战略，。

“We should be concerned less with their potential ability to challenge the US symmetrically – fighter to fighter or ship to ship – and more with their ability to disrupt our freedom of movement and narrow our strategic options,” Robert Gates, US defence secretary, said in a speech in 2009. “Their investments in . . . anti-ship weaponry and ballistic missiles could threaten America’s primary way to project power.”

美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨(Robert Gates)曾在2009年的一次演讲中表示：“我们不应太在乎他们与美国“对称”作战的潜在能力——战斗机对战斗机或舰对舰，而更应关注他们扰乱我们行动自由、并挤压我们战略选择余地的能力。他们对反舰武器和弹道导弹的投资，可能会威胁到美国投射影响力的主要途径。”

Defence experts believe the trigger for China to pursue its “carrier killer” programme was America’s deployment of ships near Taiwan in 1996. China had attempted to intimidate the island, which it claims, with missile exercises ahead of a presidential election there.

国防专家认为，促使中国开发“航母杀手”项目的是1996年美国在台湾近海部署船只的事件。当年，中国曾试图在台湾总统大选之前，用导弹演习来震慑台湾——中国声称对台湾拥有主权。

Larry Wortzel, a former army attaché at the US embassy in Beijing, remembers the subsequent warning he received from a senior Chinese military officer with the PLA’s General Staff Department.

前美国驻华使馆武官拉里•沃策尔(Larry Wortzel)还记得上述事件过后，自己从解放军总参谋部一位高级将领那里得到的警告。

Putting his arm round Mr Wortzel’s shoulders at a diplomatic reception, the officer told him: “We’re going to sink your carriers with ballistic missiles.”

在一次外交接待活动上，这位官员搂着沃策尔的肩膀说：“我们会用弹道导弹击沉你们的航母。”

“Neither of us was loud or angry. It was a pretty ‘diplomatic discussion’ in terms of the interchange and tone,” Mr Wortzel recalls.

沃策尔回忆道：“我们俩声音都不大，也都没有生气。就内容和语气而言，那颇有‘外交磋商’的意味。”

He began to take the exchange more seriously when, after leaving the military, he came across Chinese physics and surveillance research focused on how to attack a moving aircraft carrier.

离开军队后，沃策尔偶然了解到中国正进行物理和监控研究，重点研究如何攻击移动中的航母，他才开始将那次谈话当回事儿。

When he presented a paper warning of these trends at an Army War College conference four years ago, delegates from the US Navy dismissed the potential threat.

4年前，他在美国陆军战争学院(US Army War College)的一次会议上发表了一篇论文，就中国这些动态提出警告，但美国海军的代表对这一潜在危险不屑一顾。

“I think the navy has changed its tune,” Mr Wortzel says. It remains unclear just how far the PLA has come in mastering the technical challenges involved.

沃策尔表示：“我想现在海军已改变了态度。”目前仍不清楚，中国军方对相关技术问题掌握到什么程度。

But the debate among Chinese officers, scholars and engineers has evolved over the past decade, from strategic questions to concrete technical and operational challenges.

但过去十年来，中国官员、学者和工程师内部的辩论已有所转向，从讨论战略问题发展到具体的技术和操作问题。

State media reported the completion of a rocket motor manufacturing plant late last year, and the establishment of a strategic forces base in Guangdong province. In September there were reports of a large-scale missile test in western China. In addition, China is rapidly expanding its satellite network, which could be used for targeting and tracking US carriers.

官方媒体报道，去年底，中国已建成一座火箭发动机制造厂，还在广东省修建了一个战略部队基地。据报道，去年9月，中国在西部进行了一次大规模导弹试验。此外，中国正在快速扩建可用于定位并跟踪美国航母的卫星网络。

Military analysts estimate that the PLA has begun initial production and deployment of its coveted carrier killer. But it could still be years before the new system could be used effectively.

据军事分析人士估计，中国军方已开始初步生产并部署其渴望已久的航母杀手。但新系统的有效使用可能仍要等上数年。

“This is a pretty complex weapon. You need to first locate and then track a moving target at sea, in an environment without points of orientation,” says Eric Hagt, director of the China programme at the Center for Defense Information in Washington.

华盛顿国防情报中心(Center for Defense Information)中国项目主管孔哲文(Eric Hagt)表示：“这是一种相当复杂的武器。你必须在没有定位点的环境里，首先对海上的移动目标进行定位，接着追踪。”

Chinese technical literature indicates the PLA intends to tackle the challenge with a combination of satellites, over-the-horizon radars and unmanned aerial vehicles. As Mr Hagt acknowledges: “Even if these lack precision, they could opt to launch an entire salvo of ASBMs to ‘overwhelm’ the carrier’s defences.”

中国的技术文献表明，解放军打算通过卫星、超视距雷达和无人驾驶飞机的组合来解决这一难题。正如孔哲文所承认的：“即使这不够精准，但他们可以通过发射一连串反舰弹道导弹来‘击垮’航母的防御工事。”

In that sense, China has already achieved a certain deterrence effect, making the new missile a new “door god” guarding its regional sphere of influence.

如此看来，中国已取得了一定的威慑效应，让这种新导弹成为守卫其地区势力范围的新“门神”。