魔术师变鸽子:中国数据可靠性连累国有资产遭抛售

2011年 10月 11日 09:28中国数据可靠性连累国有资产遭抛售
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周一，中国主权财富基金介入市场，买入陷入困境的中国国有银行股票。近来国有银行股遭市场抛售，分析师说这部分反映了市场对政府公布的统计数据以及公司盈利数据的完整性失去信任。

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images中央汇金增持了了3,907万股农业银行股票。投资者出现疑虑正值中国越来越多地接触全球市场，以往这主要是通过中国国有企业和其它企业的股票上市实现的，但最近却主要是通过在香港交易的人民币和债券来实现的。

在美上市的一群被指欺诈的小企业股票首先崩溃，然后迅速蔓延至海外投资者能够购买的其它中国资产。股市投资者逃离中国大型国有银行股的部分原因是投资者担心在信贷出现多年井喷式增长之后，中国的国有银行没有如实公开他们的坏账问题。

投资者也在卖出百度（Baidu Inc.）这类非常成功的互联网公司，因为这些企业存在所有权风险隐患。他们还远离地产股，因为担心中国政府抗击通胀的举措会让举债的开发商和购房人求助于非法的资金提供者。

市场对人民币的看法变得更为谨慎。最近几周，随着一些投资者买入避险货币美元，以及其它投资者担心中国经济增速可能放缓，人民币面临罕见的下行压力。但在周一，人民币汇率走高，交易员将此归因为投资者对市场上美元短缺的担忧减轻。

市场对在香港发行的人民币计价债券（即所谓“点心债券”）的热情正在减弱。西方银行家们一直在向他们的公司客户兜售“点心债券”，将其描绘成下一个重大金融投资产品。

分析师们说，多年来有意淡化风险之后，许多投资者现在似乎开始担心中国经济的其它方面可能并非像看上去的那样。投资者质疑官方数据的可靠性：官方数据显示，作为全球经济剩下的为数不多的主要增长引擎之一，中国经济还在继续快速增长。

市场对中国前景的悲观情绪日益加重，以至于一些投资者不光看跌中国股市，还押注中国政府债也将下跌。市场普遍认为中国政府债是安全资产。总部位于纽约的存管信托及结算公司（Depository Trust & ClearingCorp.）的数据显示，截至9月底，中国政府所发行债券的信贷违约掉期（CDS）未执行部分的净值同比几乎增长了一倍，达到83.4亿美元。

大和证券公司（Daiwa Securities Ltd.）经济学家孙明春说，投资者不相信政府公布的统计数据，不相信公司盈利数据，不相信政府官员的评论。投资者在说，我不知道该听谁的。

对中国统计数据的质疑早已有之。此外，多年来，随着看好中国的热潮转变成对政府保持经济快速增长能力的担忧，海外上市中国公司的股票一直受到周期性抛售的冲击。

相关报道四大国有商业银行证实中央汇金增持其A股
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观点：中国经济的最大风险及政策应对
怎样做空中国
谁在押注人民币贬值？

很多中外经济学家仍普遍预测今年中国经济增速将在9%左右，虽然低于近年来的水平，但仍是很快的速度；此外，这些经济学家还认为抛售过度了。他们相信，银行能够应对不良贷款的激增，如果必要，政府还能出手相救。中国逾3万亿美元的外汇储备显示了它的这种实力。

中国严格控制跨境资本流动，外国人只有有限的途径投资在中国内地市场发行的股票和债券。这意味着海外的抛售不会给中国国内经济带来直接风险。

尽管如此，投资者情绪的突然转变可能使中国和全球经济付出高昂代价。这关系到一个日益崛起的超级经济大国的声望，这个国家渴望使本土公司成为全球领跑者，使本国货币成为能与美元和欧元比肩的货币。

由于中国国内证券交易所和银行主要为国有企业服务，中国私营企业（尤其是互联网公司）一直依靠国际市场筹集资金。银行类股的暴跌使他们在一旦利润不足时筹集更多资金的选择减少。

全球投资者前所未有地暴露在世界第二大经济体中国的风险中。中国公司在香港新上市股中占了主导地位，在纽约也发挥着很大的作用。随着中国推出基础设施项目、建造新城市，中国对原材料的巨大需求帮助设定了从铜到新兴市场货币等各类商品的价格。

对中国投资信心的下滑在去年底开始升温，当时做空海外上市中国小型股（在股价下挫时有望获利）的投资者开始公布他们的实地研究结果。尤其值得注意的是，位于上海的公司Muddy WatersLLC在网上公布了可读性很强的报告，报告使用照片、采访和政府文件来支持其观点，即一些公司伪造重要合约和客户、极大地夸大收益。

数十家通过不透明的后门方法（即收购已上市的空壳公司）在美国上市的中国小企业此后纷纷被勒令摘牌退市或暂停交易，同时美国证券交易委员会(U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission)展开了调查。这令另外数十家中国公司的投资者不安起来。

市场研究公司中国市场研究集团（China Market Research Group）的董事总经理雷小山（Shaun Rein）说，这些年来，回报一直非常好，投资者已经不在乎了。雷小山又说，如今对冲基金已经占了业务的一半，人们对会计欺诈非常担心。

在中国主权财富基金于本周一购入股份之前，中国资产总值最高的银行中国工商银行股份有限公司(Industrial & CommercialBank of China Ltd.)的股价自八月底以来已经下跌了22%，中国农业银行股份有限公司(Agricultural Bank ofChina Ltd.)的股价已经下跌了31%。香港恒生指数同期下跌了14%。

对于在周一进行的市场干预，总值达4,000亿美元的主权财富基金旗下国内投资业务子公司中央汇金投资有限责任公司(Central Huijin Investment Co.,简称：中央汇金)表示，已经开始买入上述两家银行的股票，并且还买入了中国银行股份有限公司(Bank of ChinaLtd.)和中国建设银行股份有限公司(China Construction Bankco.)的股票，以帮助这些银行的股价回稳。本已是这几家国有银行的主要股东的该基金表示，还将继续在公开市场买入股份。2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭后，中央汇金就曾在一年之内，买入中国的银行类股票，以提振中国股市。

这次干预使得中国银行类股价格出现上升，刺激香港股市尾盘回升了1.6%。中央汇金购入的是这些银行在沪市的股份。宣布购股的消息时，沪市已经闭市，但香港的股市仍在交易。这些银行都同时在上海和香港上市。

申银万国证券分析师吴大中说，政府重仓买入银行类股，清楚地传达了想要提振市场信心的信号。

但一些人对此持怀疑态度。瑞银(UBS )的分析师吴拳拳(SarahWu)在周一中央汇金购股之前称，除非市场参与者能够比较可信地了解到银行资产负债表的风险状况，否则按照我们的预测股价仍将波动。她说，就可信度而言，银行实际报告的程度和市场愿意相信的程度之间存在差距。

曾一度受到美国投资者青睐的中国的互联网股票也引发了新的忧虑，因为复杂的法律结构不允许将中国资产的所有权交给外国投资者。与7月份的股价峰值相比，百度的股价下跌了27%，新浪的股价下跌了40%。

投资咨询公司Pacific Sun Advisors的首席执行长曼特尔（Andy Mantel）说，针对中国的悲观情绪已经接近历史最高水平。该公司在中国从事投资已经有20年了。

011年 10月 11日 09:28China Selloff Reflects Waning Credibility
China's sovereign-wealth fundstepped in Monday to buy shares of the country's battered banks, whichhave been caught in a selloff that analysts say partly reflects a lossof trust in the integrity of government statistics and corporateearnings.

The skepticism of investors comes as China has becomeincreasingly exposed to global markets, largely through stock listingsof its state-owned enterprises and other companies, but more recentlythrough its currency and bonds, which are now traded in Hong Kong.

Themarket rout began among a group of small U.S.-listed companies accusedof fraud and quickly has spread to other Chinese assets available tooverseas investors. Stock investors are fleeing China's state bankinggiants partly on fears that they aren't coming clean about theirbad-debt problems after several years of blow-out lending.

Investorsalso are selling high-flying Internet companies such as Baidu Inc.(BIDU, K3SD.SG) as there are questions about hidden ownership risks. Andthey are fleeing property stocks on fear that Beijing'sinflation-fighting efforts have left developers and buyers in hock toillegitimate financiers.

Sentiment has even turned more cautiouson China's currency, the yuan. It faced rare downward pressure in recentweeks as some investors bought the safe-haven U.S. dollar and othersworried about potential for a slowing Chinese economy. On Monday,though, the yuan rose to a high, which traders attributed to easingconcerns about a shortage of dollars in the market.

Enthusiasm iswaning for Chinese bonds issued in Hong Kong--so-called dim sumbonds--that Western bankers have been touting to their corporatecustomers as the next big financial investment story.

Analystssay that after years of downplaying risk, many investors now appear tobe fearful that other aspects of China's economy may also not be as theyseem. They are questioning the credibility of official numbers thatshow continued rapid growth in China's economy, one of the lastremaining major engines of the global economy.

Pessimism aboutChina's prospects has grown so deep that some investors are bettingagainst not only its stocks but its government debt, which by allaccounts is safe. The net value of outstanding credit-default swaps ondebt issued by the Chinese government nearly doubled, to $8.34 billionat the end of September from a year earlier, according to data from theNew York-based Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.

'Peopledon't trust the government statistics, they don't trust corporateearnings, they don't trust from government officials,' said DaiwaSecurities Ltd. economist Sun Mingchun. 'Investors are saying, I don'tknow who I should listen to.'

Skepticism about Chinese statisticsisn't new, and over the years Chinese stocks listed overseas have beenhit by periodic bouts of selling as waves of China euphoria turned toanxiety about the government's ability to sustain rapid growth.

ManyChinese and foreign economists still broadly forecast Chinese economicgrowth of around 9% this year--slower than in recent years but still acracking pace--and say the selloff is overblown. They are confidentthat banks could cope with a spike in nonperforming loans, and ifnecessary the government could bail them out. Its stash of $3trillion-plus in foreign-exchange reserves shows its firepower.

Chinakeeps a tight control on capital flows across its borders, andforeigners have only limited access to stocks and bonds listed onmainland Chinese markets. That means an investor selloff overseasdoesn't pose a direct risk to China's domestic economy.

Still,the sudden turn in investor sentiment could be costly for both China andthe global economy. At stake is the prestige of a rising economicsuperpower that aspires to turn its companies into global leaders, andits currency into a rival to the U.S. dollar and the euro.

China'sprivate sector--most notably its Internet companies--has long relied oninternational markets to raise funds, since domestic stock exchangesand the banks are primarily geared toward serving state companies. Thetumble in banks' shares complicates their options to raise additionalfunds if their profits fall short.

Global investors are exposedto the world's second-largest economy as never before. Chinese companiesdominate new listings in Hong Kong and have a big role in New York.China's voracious demand for raw materials as it rolls outinfrastructure and builds new cities helps set the price of everythingfrom copper to emerging-market currencies.

The slide inconfidence in China investments began to pick up momentum late last yearwhen investors who had taken short positions in overseas-listed smallChinese stocks--and thus stood to gain if the stocks fell--startedsharing with the public their on-the-ground research. Most notably,Shanghai-based Muddy Waters LLC posted highly readable reports onlinethat used photographs, interviews and government documents to supportits claims that some companies had falsified key contracts and customersand vastly overstated revenues.

Dozens of small Chinesecompanies that listed their shares in the U.S. through an opaquebackdoor method--buying an already-listed shell company--have since beendelisted or suspended while there are investigations by the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission. That has spooked investors in dozensmore Chinese companies.

'The returns were so good for so manyyears' that investors 'just didn't care,' said Shaun Rein, managingdirector of Shanghai-based China Market Research Group, a research firm.Mr. Rein says that hedge funds suddenly account for around half of hisbusiness. 'The fear of accounting fraud is very real,' he said.

BeforeMonday's share purchases by the sovereign-wealth fund, Industrial &Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (IDCBY, 1398.HK, 601398.SH), thecountry's largest bank by assets, had dropped 22% since the end ofAugust, and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. (ACGBF, 1288.HK, 601288.SH)had fallen 31%. The Hang Seng, Hong Kong's benchmark index, fell 14%over the same period.

In Monday's market intervention, CentralHuijin Investment, the domestic investment arm of the $400 billionsovereign-wealth fund, said it had started buying shares in those twobanks, plus Bank of China Ltd. (BACHY, 3988.HK, 601988.SH) and ChinaConstruction Bank Corp. (CICHY, 0939.HK, 601939.SH), to help stabilizetheir prices. The fund, already a major shareholder in the state banks,said it would continue to buy in the open market. Huijin previouslystepped in to buy Chinese bank stocks as part of a year-long effort toprop up the domestic stock market after the collapse of Lehman Brothersin 2008.

The intervention sent Chinese bank shares up and spurreda 1.6% late-day rebound in the Hong Kong market. Huijin boughtShanghai-listed shares of the banks, announcing its purchases after theShanghai market closed but when Hong Kong was still trading. The banksare dual-listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

'By buying theheavyweight banking stocks, the government clearly sent a message thatit wants to boost confidence in the market,' said Wu Dazhong, an analystat Shenyin Wanguo Securities.

Some are skeptical. 'Unless marketparticipants can get a more credible picture of balance-sheetrisks...we expect share prices to remain quite volatile,' said Sarah Wu,an analyst with UBS, in a note issued before Monday's intervention. Shesaid banks face a 'credibility gap' between what they 'are actuallyreporting and what the market is willing to believe.'

ChineseInternet stocks, once darlings of U.S. investors, have cratered on newworries about complicated legal structures that don't give foreigninvestors an ownership stake in their Chinese assets. Baidu is off 27%since its peak in July. Sina Corp. (SINA) is down 40% from its peak inthe same month.

'Pessimism about China is close to being at anall-time high,' said Andy Mantel, chief executive of investment advisoryPacific Sun Advisors, who has been investing in the country for 20years.

Dinny McMahon / James T. Areddy