饥荒韦伯解说:此刻，中国抛售美债的最佳时机？

（据路透社报道）--- 伴随着周四高开的债券市场，一项新的旨在处罚涉嫌操纵汇率的美国最大的债权国--中国的法案，日前被美国两党通过。而此前外界对中国将采取报复措施的担忧却完全消退。

With benchmark 10-year yields well under 2 percent, 30-year bonds yielding less than 3 percent and the assurance of a new Treasury purchasing program by the Federal Reserve, now may be a better time than ever for China to sell its Treasury holdings -- from a U.S. perspective, that is.

当前，基准十年期国债收益率低于2个百分点，三十年债券收益率不到3个百分点加上美联储出台了的新的国债购买方案作为保障，也许此时对于中国来说是出售手中所持美债的最佳时机---当然是从美国的角度而言。

"The best thing that China could do is dump Treasuries, and I hope they do so as soon as possible," said Joseph Gagnon, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington who has worked for both the Treasury Department and the Fed.

“抛售美债是中国此时的最佳选择，而且我希望他们能尽早这么做。”同时供职于财政部和美联储的华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所研究员约瑟夫·嘉侬（ Joseph Gagnon）如是说到。

A bill sponsored by eight senators would direct the Commerce Department to treat currency undervaluation as a subsidy under U.S. trade law. That would allow companies to seek countervailing duties on Chinese goods on a case-by-case basis.

一项由八位议员支持的法案将会使美商务部根据贸易法把汇率低估作为贸易补贴的依据，也就是说美企业可根据实际情况对中国货物申请反倾销税。

On Wednesday, the Fed unveiled a new program to sell $400 billion in short-term Treasuries from its balance sheet and use the proceeds to buy longer-dated notes and bonds, including a very significant portion of all the new 30-year bonds that will be auctioned in the coming months.

美联储于周三公布了一项新的法案。该法案主要包括根据其资产负债情况销售4000亿美元短期国债以购买长期票据及债券.其中非常重要的一个部分包括将在未来几个月内公开拍卖的新型30年期债券。

"If China would step back, let the dollar fall and stop buying Treasuries, the Fed would step in," Gagnon said. "We'd get a massive stimulus because we'd have booming exports and still have low interest rates."

“如果中国此时退出，放任美元走弱并停止购买美国国债，美联储将介入。”嘉侬说。“这将显著刺激美国经济，我们的外贸出口将大幅增加而利率将维持在较低水平。”

For China, lower import prices due to a higher renminbi would help fight inflation, Gagnon added.

“对中国而言较高人民币汇率下更低的进口价格将有助于缓解通胀压力。”嘉侬补充到。

And from an investment perspective, the country would be cashing out at a price peak in the market.

“且从投资角度来看此时处在价格高点也适合中方抽资离场。”

China's vast Treasury holdings, which totaled $1.174 trillion in July according to Treasury data, have been a major source of anxiety among policymakers and some Wall Street analysts who thought they gave China too much power over the United States, politically and economically.

美财政部数据显示七月份中国所持美债数额已高达1.174万亿美元.许多决策者和华尔街分析师都担心此状况将使美国在经济和政治上过多的受制于中国。

China has been known to evoke the specter of massive Treasury selling in political disputes. It could do so again as the currency manipulation issue heats up or if the U.S. Congress manages to pass a bill requiring the sale of new F16 fighter jets to Taiwan over China's vigorous objections.

外界一直认为但逢政治纷争中国就会打出抛售大笔外债牌。比如当下中美汇率操纵问题日趋白热化的情况，以及美国会不顾中方强烈反对依然通过了对台军售新型F16战机的法案。

"The Chinese may be holding their big guns back for scaring the U.S. off," said Derek Scissors, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

“中国也许会以此为要挟吓一吓美国人。”华盛顿传统基金会(the Heritage Foundation )研究员德里克·西泽（Derek Scissors）说到。

"If we get there, the Chinese are going to at least yell about this and have it be connected to Taiwan," Scissors said.

如果真到了那一步，中方起码会对此提出强烈抗议并把台湾的问题也牵扯进来。

Some rumblings to that effect have already emerged from China. Last week, Li Daokui, an adviser to China's central bank, said China should "liquidate" its Treasury holdings and use its dollars to buy other assets.

而中国方面也已发出类似声音。上周，中国央行货币政策委员会委员李稻葵指出中国应该对所持债券进行“清算”以购买其它资产。

But Scissors said that with Treasury yields so low and European debt markets in clear crisis, the threats would mean far less.

但是西泽认为在当前美国债券收益率低下，欧洲债券市场又深陷危机泥潭的形势下。此举所带来的影响将显著降低。

"If the Chinese were to try to do something right now, it would have much less of an effect because of current market conditions in the U.S.," he said.

“根据当前美国内市场形势来看，如果中国准备做点什么的话，其作用将远不如预期的那样明显。”他说到。

However, it would likely be impossible for China to sell a major chunk of its Treasuries and find a new vehicle for storing its dollars.

并且，中国几乎不大可能大幅度抛售所持债券并找到新的可供投资的保值工具。

"China would love not to own this many Treasuries," said Jim Vogel, head of fixed-income research at FTN Financial in Memphis.

孟菲斯贸易网络公司财经部（FTN FINANCIAL)固定收入研究主管吉姆·沃尔格(Jim Vogel)坦言：“也许中国会感叹当初没有购买如此多的美国债券就好了。”

"But other markets are far less attractive than they were six months ago. "Let's say that they liquidated a quarter of their holdings, what market out there can they turn to? said Vogel.

吉姆·沃尔格接着说道:“相较半年前而言它国市场的投资吸引力已大幅下降。假使中国真的清算了四分之一的债券，接下来他们准备转投哪里呢？”

"And do you ever really want to sell your Treasury holdings if it reduces the size of your discussion points at the next bargaining table?"

“并且如果此时清算将减少将来在谈判桌上的筹码，你还愿意这么做吗？”