马来西亚旅游歌曲:铜价及股市下跌 全球市场拉响警报

2011年 09月 26日 10:18铜价及股市下跌 全球市场拉响警报
评论(14)数月来，欧洲和美国一直是投资者关注的焦点。

突然之间，投资者不得不开始担心世界其他地方了。

上周，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数暴跌6.4%，是2008年10月以来跌幅最大的一周，该指数今年以来累计跌了近7%。标普500指数上周跌幅与道指不相上下，今年以来累计跌了9.6%。

Getty Images上周，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数暴跌6.4%，是2008年10月以来跌幅最大的一周，该指数今年以来累计跌了近7%。标普500指数上周跌幅与道指不相上下，今年以来累计跌了9.6%。
不过，很多投资者不再仅仅关注希腊债务、欧洲银行业和美国经济，而是开始对一系列的新指标感到纠结，他们说这些指标预示全球经济将出现严重放缓。

上海、香港和巴西铜价及股市的暴跌令很多投资者紧张不已。其他人则关注垃圾债券的下跌及钢铁、矿业和企业股的突然下挫。一些投资者把这些市场视为市场总体走势的领先指标。

投资顾问公司Marketfield Asset Management总裁埃朗斯汀(Michael Aronstein)说，铜价下跌，巴西股市下挫，中国股市走低。该公司管理着逾10亿美元资金。他还说，人们开始指望广泛的领域来推动增长，而这会令他们失望。

9月份铜价22%的跌幅尤其令人警醒。铜需求通常被视为直接反映了广泛的经济活动。铜被用于房屋、家电和汽车中，消费者、公司和政府的支出出现任何下滑，铜价都容易受到影响。铜有时被投资者称为“铜博士”，因为它被视为能够比拥有博士学位的学术人士更准确地预测经济走势。

穆迪旗下Moody's Capital Markets Group首席经济学家朗斯基(John Lonski)说，最近铜价的走低是全球制造业活动放缓的一个有力证据。

铜价的下跌还可能意味着新兴市场出现疲态，特别是全球最大的铜消费国中国。

7月底以来，上证综合指数累计跌了近10%，香港恒生指数跌了21%（跌幅超过同期标普500指数12%的跌幅），这些都凸显出投资者越来越担心这些地区的增长。

中国股市并不一定总是能反映该国的经济活动，所以投资者对中国股市暴跌的解读应该适可而止。尽管如此，经济学家们说，全球第二大经济体中国的经济增长可能开始放缓。据普氏(Platts)的一项估计数字，8月份，中国石油需求创下去年10月以来的月度最低，但过去一年来增长了7%。

中国经济增长的放缓从一定程度上是因为政府决定进行经济转型，不再主要依靠高速铁路等由政府主导的基础设施项目。

不过，投资者说，随着海外增长下滑，出口看来也面临着压力。

负责一只由Fortress Investment Group旗下大宗商品对冲基金的卡拉南（WilliamCallanan）上周在给投资者的一封信中指出，广东等沿海省份以及中国其它主要出口中心上报的各省贸易数据呈现出不祥之兆。许多潜在问题开始在中国和其它亚洲重要市场显现。

中国住房市场的增速看来也开始放缓。

卡拉南认为，中国面临的危险是，出口放缓导致银行存款增速降低和信贷紧缩，这种自我强化的“负反馈循环”可能会给中国经济增长施加进一步压力。

诚然，中国可能仅仅是降低了不可持续的经济增速。而铜价下跌也可能只是意味着其最近价格飙升太高。巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）负责大宗商品研究的董事总经理诺里什（Kevin Norrish）说，该行对今年8月中国铜消费量的估计是近年来最高的。

有些人说，铜价下跌和中国股市疲软也可能表明，投机者手头吃紧。在中国，短线交易员通常能拉动铜价和股价。但现在这些市场参与者发现银行缩减了他们的资金。中央政府收紧了对贷款的控制，以试图遏制通货膨胀。

然而，中国经济增长的任何放缓都可能伤及全球经济增长，特别是像巴西这样的新兴市场国家：这些国家向经济快速增长的中国出售大宗商品和其它产品。

事实上，其它曾经表现不错的市场现在也呈现出疲态，这意味着全球经济增长引擎的数量可能比一些人预计的要少。比如上周巴西Ibovespa股指跌幅超过7%，情况比美国股市还要糟糕。

而上周钢铁、煤炭和矿业公司的股价下跌进一步证明全球经济正在放缓，因为这几个行业高度依赖海外经济增长。上周，大宗商品大型厂商FreeportMcMoRan Copper & Gold，United States Steel以及ArchCoal的股价跌幅均位于20%至23%之间，钢铁生产商指数则下降了19%。

与此同时，近几周来，垃圾债券一直在承压，这可能是负债累累的公司陷入麻烦的征兆。分析师说，垃圾债券现在所处的价格水平意味着，在未来一年约有8%的垃圾债券发行人将会违约。而近几周来即使在股市试图回升的情况下，垃圾债券市场也没有多少反弹，这令一些投资者感到不安。

垃圾债券研究机构KDP投资顾问公司（KDP Investment Advisors Inc.）总裁彭尼曼（KingmanPenniman）说，垃圾债券的价格处于超卖状态，明年垃圾债券的违约率可能处于2.5%至3%之间。尽管如此，这还是高于几周前预计的不到2%的违约率。

在一些投资者看来，一系列指标表明全球经济已进入了一个充满危险的新时期。

全球最大的债券持有机构太平洋投资管理公司（Pacific Investment Management Co.）的首席执行长埃尔-埃里安（Mohamed A. El-Erian）说，全球正处于一个同步放缓的时期。

埃尔-埃里安认为，铜价下跌，中国和其它市场走软意味着外界认识到西方国家的主权债务和经济增长危机对全球经济造成的负面影响越来越大。

From Copper to Junk Bonds, Markets Flash Global Warnings


For months it has been all about Europe and the U.S.

Suddenly, investors have reasons to worry about the rest of the world.

Lastweek, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 6.4%, its worst weeksince October 2008, leaving it down nearly 7% for the year. The Standard& Poor's 500-stock index did nearly as poorly last week and now isdown 9.6% this year.

But rather than focus solely on Greek debt,European banks and the U.S economy, many investors have begun to wringtheir hands about a new set of indicators they say portend a seriousslowdown in the world economy.

A tumble in copper prices andfalling shares in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Brazil all have a number ofinvestors on edge. Others are focused on a downturn in junk bonds andsudden weakness in shares of steel and mining and companies. Someinvestors view these markets as leading indicators for broader markets.

'Copper'sgoing down, Brazil's going down, China's going down,' said MichaelAronstein, president of Marketfield Asset Management, which manages morethan $1 billion. 'People are counting on the far-flung kingdoms todrive growth,' he added. 'That's where the disappointment is going tocome.'

Copper's 22% drop in September has been particularlyalarming. Demand for the metal is often viewed as directly reflecting abroad range of economic activity. Copper goes into houses, appliancesand vehicles and is exposed to any drops in spending by consumers,corporations and governments. It is sometimes called Dr. Copper by fansbecause it's seen as a better prognosticator of the economy thanacademics with Ph.D.s.

The recent decline is 'convincing evidenceof a global slowdown of manufacturing activity,' said John Lonski,chief economist at Moody's Capital Markets Group.

Copper's troubles also may signal weakness in emerging markets, particularly China, the world's largest single copper consumer.

Anearly 10% fall in the Shanghai stock market since the end of July, anda 21% drop in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index─worse than the 12% fall forthe S&P 500 in the same period─underscore how investors are growingworried about growth in that part of the world.

China's stockmarket hasn't always reflected underlying economic activity in thecountry, so there is only so much investors should read into the falloffin Chinese shares. Still, economists say Chinese growth likely isslowing, as the second-largest global economy continues to downshift.China's oil demand in August was the lowest monthly level since Octoberof last year, according to a Platts estimate, though it was up 7% in thepast year.

The downshift partly comes from a decision by thegovernment to try to shift the economy away from being driven bygovernment-run infrastructure projects, like its high-speed rail system.

But exports also seem to be under pressure, investors say, as growth abroad slips.

'Theprovincial trade data for the coastal provinces of Guangdong as well asother key export centers in China is ominous,' according to a lettersent to investors last week by William Callanan, who runs a commodityhedge fund operated by Fortress Investment Group. 'Many cracks arebeginning to appear' in China and other key Asian markets.

The Chinese housing market also seems to be slowing.

Adanger for China is that slowing exports lead to weaker bank-depositgrowth and tighter credit, a self-reinforcing 'negative feedback loop'that could exert further pressure on Chinese growth, Mr. Callananargues.

To be sure, China might simply be slowing from anunsustainable pace. As for copper, the price decline could merelyindicate that it had recently soared too high. Kevin Norrish, managingdirector for commodities research at Barclays Capital, said the bank'sestimate of Chinese copper consumption in August was the highest inyears.

Weakness in copper and in Chinese shares also may indicatethat speculators are feeling a pinch, some say. In China, day tradersoften drive prices of copper and stocks; today those market participantsare finding their funding reduced by lenders. Beijing has beentightening its grip on lending to try to keep inflation under wraps.

Still,any slowdown in China likely would hurt global growth, especially inemerging nations such as Brazil, which sell commodities and otherproducts to fast-growing China.

In fact, other markets that hadheld up well also are showing weakness, suggesting there may be fewerengines of growth than some expected. The Brazilian Ibovespa stockindex, for example, tumbled more than 7% last week, worse than the dropfor U.S. stocks.

A slide last week in shares of steel, coal andmining companies adds evidence of a global slowdown, because theseindustries are highly reliant on growth from abroad. Shares of bigcommodity producers like Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, UnitedStates Steel, and Arch Coal were down between 20% and 23% last week, andan index of steel producers declined 19%.

At the same time, junkbonds have been under pressure for weeks, a possible sign of troublefor companies laden with debt. Prices on junk bonds are at levels thatsuggest defaults will amount to about 8% of junk-bond issuers over thenext year, analysts say. And junk bonds haven't had much of a rebound inrecent weeks even when stocks managed to rise, troubling someinvestors.

Kingman Penniman, president of KDP Investment AdvisorsInc., a junk-bond research firm, says junk-bond prices are oversold,and that defaults will probably be 2.5% to 3% in the next year. Still,that is up from an expectation of less than 2% just a few weeks ago.

To some investors, the broad range of indicators suggest the global economy has entered a new period, one fraught with danger.

'Theworld is now in a synchronized slowdown,' says Mohamed A. El-Erian,chief executive of Pacific Investment Management Co., the biggestbondholder in the world.

Mr. El-Erian argues that weaknesses incopper, China and other markets 'speak to recognition of the growingcontamination of global economic activity by the West's sovereign-debtand growth crises.'

Gregory Zuckerman and Liam Pleven in New York / James T. Areddy in Shanghai