中国反思电动汽车政策China debates electric car policy

Beijing appears to be rethinking its singular focus on electric vehicles to reduce fuel consumption and improve air quality as it becomes increasingly clear that its targets for mass-producing electric vehicles in China are unrealistic.

北京方面似乎正在反思其单纯指望电动汽车降低油耗并改善空气质量的战略，因为目前形势越来越明朗：中国政府制定的电动车量产目标是不现实的。

China had planned to leapfrog a generation of conventional engine technology to develop what Beijing hoped would be an early advantage over the west in electric vehicles. No formal decision has been taken to abandon that plan, but top decision-makers in Beijing see its original timetable as too optimistic.

此前中国计划实现蛙跳式发展，即跳过一代常规发动机技术，直接开发电动车技术，北京方面希望，这将使中国相对于西方在电动车领域占得先机。目前尚未作出放弃这一计划的正式决定，但北京的高层决策者认识到，其最初的时间表过于乐观了。

Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, reflected intense debate within the bureaucracy recently in a Communist party journal article that questioned China’s “road map” towards alternative vehicles. Peter Huang, forecaster at consultants IHS Automotive in Shanghai, expected Beijing to shift its focus to “hybrids and all vehicles that can reduce fuel consumption”.

党刊《求是》最近刊登了中国总理温家宝发表的讲话，他在讲话中对中国发展替代燃料车辆的“路线 图”提出疑问，这反映出官僚体制内部的激烈辩论。咨询公司IHS汽车(IHS Automotive)驻上海的预测师Peter Huang预期，中国政府将把重点转向“混合动力车以及能够降低油耗的所有车辆”。

“The shift in focus means that even traditional internal combustion engines could now see beneficial policies,” he said. China’s targets of 1m new-energy vehicles on the roads by 2015 and 5m by 2020 could be revised to include conventional hybrid vehicles, as otherwise the government would struggle to meet these goals, IHS said.

“这一重点转移意味着，即使是传统的内燃发动机，现在也可能享受优惠政策，”他表示。IHS 称，中国的相关目标（到2015年让100万辆新能源车辆上路行驶，到2020年进一步增至500万辆）可能被修订，以便包括常规的混合动力车，否则的 话，中国政府将难以实现上述目标。

Other Chinese analysts said that while a battle was on for the future of China’s alternative fuel policy, any changes had yet to be agreed.

其他中国分析人士表示，尽管围绕中国的替代燃料政策正在展开辩论，但各方尚未就任何改变达成一致。

Industry analysts said Beijing had been disappointed by slow progress towards a domestic electric vehicle industry. China’s highest profile electric vehicle maker, BYD – which is backed by US billionaire investor Warren Buffett – has repeatedly delayed plans to commercialise and export its electric vehicles. Government subsidies of up to Rmb60,000 ($9,370) for pure electric vehicles and Rmb50,000 for a new generation of plug-in hybrids are available in five cities on a trial basis, but have seen little take-up.

行业分析师们表示，北京方面对国内电动车产业发展缓慢感到失望。中国最知名的电动车制造商、得 到美国亿万富翁投资者沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)支持的比亚迪(BYD)，已一再推迟其电动车的商业化和出口计划。中国5个城市正在试行政府补贴（纯电动车可得到6万元人民币——合 9370美元，新一代的插电式混合动力车可得到5万元人民币），但消费者并未踊跃响应。

“It was simply never realistic for a fledgling auto industry to skip conventional hybrids and immediately electrify,” said Bill Russo of Synergistics auto consultancy in Beijing, who previously ran Chrysler in China. “However, I believe this will not deter China from a long-term goal of pursuing such an endgame. They have planted the seeds for the future EV industry: it is just going to take much longer than they anticipated.”

“一个稚嫩的汽车业跳过常规的混合动力车、一下子实现电气化的构想从来就是不现实的，”北京汽 车咨询公司Synergistics总裁、曾执掌克莱斯勒(Chrysler)中国业务的罗威(Bill Russo)表示。“不过，我相信这不会阻止中国为实现这个长远目标付出努力。他们已经为未来的电动车产业播下了种子，只是需要的时间比他们原来所预想的 要长得多。”

Chinese buyers have shown little appetite for conventional hybrids. Last year, Toyota sold only one Prius in China, produced by its local joint venture with FAW, according to Namrita Chow of IHS Automotive. Boosting sales of current-generation hybrids would depend on whether government subsidies currently available for electric vehicles are extended to other fuel-efficient vehicles.

中国买家迄今对常规的混合动力车兴致索然。据IHS汽车的Namrita Chow介绍，去年丰田(Toyota)在中国仅售出了一辆普锐斯(Prius)混合动力汽车，这是由丰田与一汽(FAW)的合资企业制造的。提振当今这 一代混合动力车的销售，将取决于目前面向电动车的政府补贴是否扩大适用面，覆盖其它高能效车辆。

Beijing’s review of its policy comes in the context of a growing industry debate over the viability of electric cars.

北京方面重审其政策之际，正值业界围绕电动汽车可行性的辩论愈演愈烈。