金霉素软膏售价:A battle between Dragon and Inflation

来源：百度文库编辑：九乡新闻网时间：2024/05/17 05:14:54

A battle between Dragon and Inflation

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2011-7-12 08:34

In the latest sign that China is still struggling to tame inflation, the government said Saturday that the consumer price index rose by 6.4 percent in June, the highest rate in three years.

Food prices, which account for nearly one third of the basket of goods in the nation's CPI calculation, jumped 14.4 percent in June from the same month last year, a pace faster than May's 11.7 percent.

The price of pork — a major food staple in China — was up 57 percent in June from the level a year earlier, making it the biggest contributor to inflationary pressure. Beijing is trying to slow growth in what is now the world’s second largest economy in the hopes of preventing inflation and high property prices from undermining an economy that has grown strongly over the last two years.

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2011-7-12 08:34

The increasing price of pork has been a major contributor to China's rising consumer price index.

That has been the see-saw nature of China’s economic boom for much of the decade, with the country generally registering 10 percent annual growth. Yu Song, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Goldman Sachs, said pork was the main contributor to the big jump in the consumer price index while non-food inflationary pressure seemed to be easing.

She said her worry was that with the economy moderating, the government could reverse its tightening measures too soon in the hopes of reigniting growth — creating bigger problems.

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2011-7-12 08:35

Economists are predicting that China's surging inflation—reflected in new data showing a sharp rise last month—is about to hit its peak and start subsiding, which could augur a halt to the government's efforts to tap the brakes on the world's No. 2 economy. But many of those same economists were predicting exactly the same thing a year ago.

Indeed, food prices have been perhaps the biggest driver of China's inflation, rising 14.4% in June. Food prices are inherently volatile, depending on unpredictable factors like weather conditions.

Floods and droughts occur almost every year in China, and in such a huge country with a largely underdeveloped agricultural sector, those factors can cause significant temporary disruptions. Floods were behind a surge in vegetable prices last year, and drought conditions in wheat-growing areas pushed up wheat prices early this year.

"The key problem in forecasting CPI in China is that food has been responsible for about two-thirds of the overall CPI rise, and food prices are notoriously difficult to predict," says Andy Rothman, China macro strategist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.

WSJ/Miami Tribune/NY Times/CNN

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