溫家寶：物價將穩步下降How China is winning the fight against inflation

About three years have passed since the eruption of the financial crisis. Thanks to the joint efforts of the international community, the global economy is recovering. Yet there remain many uncertainties, and the recovery is fragile. Global growth is uneven; unemployment in developed economies remains high; government debt risks in some countries have mounted; inflationary pressure is increasing. While the shock of the crisis has yet to end, new risks have emerged. The world must co-operate closely to meet the challenges.

此次金融危機爆發距今已有3年左右的時間，在國際社會的共同努力下，全球經濟正逐步復蘇。但目前仍存在諸多不穩定性，經濟復蘇仍較為脆弱。全球增長不均衡；發達經濟體的失業率仍居高不下；一些國家的政府債務風險有所加提升；通脹壓力日益加大。當危機的沖擊尚未完全消退，新的風險已然出現。世界各國必須緊密合作，迎接挑戰。

China has moved swiftly to fight the financial crisis, adjusting macroeconomic policy to expand domestic demand, and introducing a stimulus package to maintain growth, advance reform and improve people’s lives. By taking these steps, we have overcome extreme difficulties and laid a solid foundation for China’s development.

金融危機伊始，中國便迅速採取行動，調整了宏觀經濟政策，以擴大內需，並出台了一項刺激計劃，以保持增長、深化改革並改善民生。通過這些舉措，我們已成功剋服了眾多極端困難，並為中國的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。

A notable result of our response to the crisis is that China has maintained steady and fast growth. Between 2008 and 2010, China’s gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 9.6, 9.2 and 10.3 per cent respectively. The consumer prices index over the same period was 5.9, -0.7 and 3.3 per cent; 33.8m new urban jobs were created. China has maintained sound growth this year.

我們這些努力的一個顯著成果就是，中國保持了快速穩定的增長。2008年至2010年間，中國國內生產總值(GDP)分別增長了9.6%、9.2%和10.3%，同期消費者價格指數(CPI)增幅則分別為5.9%、-0.7%和3.3%，全國城鎮地區新增3380萬個就業崗位。今年，中國仍保持了穩健的增長。

The thrust of China’s response to the crisis is to expand domestic demand and stimulate the real economy, strengthen the basis for long-term development and make growth domestically driven. We have implemented a two-year, Rmb4,000bn ($618bn) investment programme covering infrastructure development, economic structural adjustment, improving people’s well-being and protection of the environment. As a result, 10,800 km of railways and about 300,000 km of roads have been built and 210m kW of installed capacity for power generation have been added. We have boosted support for science and technology including by encouraging companies to carry out technological upgrading and innovation. More than Rmb1,000bn have been spent in rebuilding after the Wenchuan earthquake. In the affected areas, quality infrastructure and public facilities were constructed, and 4.83m rural houses and 1.75m urban apartments were rebuilt or reinforced. The quake-hit areas have taken on a new look. We are working to improve the balance between domestic and external demand, with the share of trade surplus in GDP dropping from 7.5 per cent in 2007 to 3.1 in 2010. China’s rapid growth and increase in imports are an engine driving the global recovery.

中國應對危機的重點是擴大內需，並刺激實體經濟，鞏固長期發展的基礎，由內需驅動增長。我們出台了一項為期兩年、規模高達4萬億元人民幣（合6180億美元）的投資計劃，內容涵蓋基礎設施開發、經濟結構調整、改善人民福利和保護環境。迄今，全國新建鐵路1.08萬公里，公路約30萬公里，增加了2.1億千瓦的發電裝機容量。我們還加大了對科技的支持力度，鼓勵企業進行技術升級和創新。四川汶川地震過後，政府已投入逾1萬億元人民幣進行災後重建，在受災地區修建了高標準的基礎設施和公共設施，並對483萬套農村住房和175萬套城鎮住房進行了重建或加固。目前，災區已舊貌換新顏。我們還努力改善內需與外需之間的平衡。中國貿易順差占GDP的比率已從2007年的7.5%降至2010年的3.1%。中國經濟的迅速發展和進口增長已成為全球復蘇的一個驅動因素。

In fighting the crisis, China has made huge strides in developing social programmes, which was beyond our means just a few years ago. We have made breakthroughs in building a social security system covering urban and rural areas. We have introduced a rural old-age insurance scheme which will cover 60 per cent of counties in China this year. The basic urban medical insurance scheme and rural co-operative medical care scheme now cover more than 90 per cent of the population. All Chinese now have access to free compulsory education. Government spending on education has grown to 3.69 per cent of GDP.

在應對危機期間，中國在社會福祉方面也取得了長足的進步，而就在幾年前，我們對此還力不能及。在構建一個同時覆蓋城鄉地區的社保體制方面，我們取得了突破性進展。我們已推出了一項針對農村的養老保險機制，今年將覆蓋全國60%的村鎮。基礎城鎮醫保制度和農村醫療合作社制度，現已覆蓋90%以上的人口。目前，所有中國人都能享受免費的義務教育。政府在教育方面的支出已增加到GDP的3.69%。

It has also pursued flexible and prudent economic policies, and ensured they are targeted and sustainable. Our budget deficit and debt balance are respectively below 3 and 20 per cent of GDP. The government budget deficit has been cut in 2010 and 2011. Since mid-2009, we have used monetary policy tools to absorb excess liquidity. In the fourth quarter of 2009, to strike a balance between maintaining steady and fast growth, conducting structural adjustment and managing inflation were set as the main goal of macroeconomic regulation. Since January 2010, the required reserve ratio and benchmark deposit and lending rates have been raised 12 times and four times respectively. So growth in money and credit supply has returned to normal. In June 2010, reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime was advanced, and the renminbi has appreciated 5.3 per cent against the US dollar.

中國還施行了靈活、審慎的經濟政策，並確保它們具有針對性和可持續性。我們的預算赤字和債務餘額占GDP的比例，分別低於3%和20%。政府預算赤字在2010年和2011年都得到了削減。自2009年中期以來，我們一直使用貨幣政策工具吸取過剩的流動性。在2009年第四季度，在維持經濟平穩較快增長、進行結構性調整和控制通脹之間取得平衡，被列為宏觀調控的主要目標。從2010年1月以來，銀行準備金率和基準存貸款利率分別上調了12次和4次。貨幣和信貸供應因此恢復到了正常水平。2010年6月，人民幣匯率機制改革有所加快，人民幣兌美元匯率已升值5.3%。

There is concern as to whether China can rein in inflation and sustain its rapid development. My answer is an emphatic yes. Rapid price rises pose a common challenge to many countries, especially other emerging economies and China. China has made capping price rises the priority of macroeconomic regulation and introduced a host of targeted policies. These have worked. The overall price level is within a controllable range and is expected to drop steadily. The output of grain, of which there is now an abundant supply, has increased for seven years in a row. There is an oversupply of main industrial products. Imports are growing fast. We are confident price rises will be firmly under control this year.

人們擔心中國能否遏制住通脹，同時維持其快速發展步伐。對此我明確給予肯定的回答。物價快速上漲是許多國家面臨的一個共同挑戰，對於其他新興經濟體和中國來說尤其如此。中國已將限制價格上漲作為宏觀經濟調控的首要任務，並推出了一套有針對性的政策。這些政策已經奏效。總體價格水平目前處在一個可控的區間，而且預計將穩步下降。在連續七年的糧食增產後，中國目前擁有充足的糧食供應。主要工業品供過於求。進口正在迅速增長。今年價格上漲將得到有力的控制，我們有這個信心。

China is now at a new starting point in its drive for development. We have adopted the 12th five-year plan which calls for shifting the development model. We will continue to pursue economic structural adjustment, boost research and development, and education, save energy and resources, promote ecological and environmental conservation, and narrow the regional and urban-rural gap. China’s drive for industrialisation and urbanisation is gathering pace. Its economy is increasingly market-oriented and internationalised. We are fully capable of sustaining steady and fast economic growth.

中國如今正處在一個發展的新起點上。我們已經通過了“十二五規劃”，其中提出要轉變發展模式。我們將繼續對經濟進行結構性調整，促進研發和教育，節約能源和資源，推動生態和環境保護，縮小地區差距和城鄉差距。中國的工業化和城市化進程正在提速。中國經濟正日益走向市場化與國際化。我們完全有能力維持經濟平穩快速增長。

China will continue to work with other countries with common responsibilities. We should make concerted efforts to strengthen the co-ordination of macroeconomic policies, fight protectionism, improve the international monetary system and tackle climate change and other challenges. We should welcome the fast development of emerging economies, respect different models of development, increase help to least developed countries to enhance their capacity for self-development, and promote strong, sustainable and balanced growth of the global economy.

中國將繼續與其他國家一道承擔共同的責任。我們應當齊心協力，加強宏觀經濟政策的協調，對抗保護主義，改進國際貨幣體系，應對氣候變化及其他挑戰。我們應歡迎新興經濟體的快速發展，尊重不同的發展模式，加大對那些最不發達國家的幫助，以增強它們自我發展的能力，並促進全球經濟強勁、持續和均衡的發展。

The writer is China’s premier

本文作者系中國國務院總理溫家寶

譯者/何黎