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来源：百度文库编辑：九乡新闻网时间：2024/04/27 17:09:02

5 Hints for Future Al-Qaeda after Laden

US: SUCCESSOR WILL BE NEXT ENEMY NO.1

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Osama bin Laden (L) sits with his adviser and purported successor Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian linked to the Al-Qaeda network, during an interview with Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir (not pictured) in an image supplied by the respected Dawn newspaper Nov 10, 2001. -- PHOTO: REUTERS

WHILE it is not yet certain who will replace Osama bin Laden to lead Al-Qaeda, CIA Director Leon Panetta said on Tuesday that whoever take his place will becomes America's new public enemy number one.

Osama's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is expected in some circles to take over, but it is not clear how soon that will happen and he may be more concerned for his own public safety after US special operations took out the Al-Qaeda chief in a daring raid.

'He's moving up very fast on the list,' Panetta told CBS television's Evening News With Katie Couric in referring to Zawahiri. Mr Panetta said that until a new Al-Qaeda leader is formally anointed, the Untied States expects to take advantage of the situation.

'We think that'll give us some opportunities to be able to continue to attack them in the confusion and debate that they're going to go through as to who ultimately replaces bin Laden,' he said. 'But I can assure you, whoever takes his place, he will be number one on our list.'

THERE IS ONLY ONE BIN LADEN

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By the time of bin Laden's death, al Qaeda was again training would-be terrorists in Pakistan, recruiting fighters for Iraq and other conflicts, and issuing propaganda on a mind-numbing basis. (Before 9/11, any al Qaeda statement was worth scrutinizing down to its last word.

After the attacks, the group produced so many public statements that analysts struggled to keep up.) Because of his newfound celebrity and the loss of his Afghan safe haven, bin Laden's own operational role was necessarily more limited after 9/11 than it had been before. But the simple fact of his survival was of immense symbolic value for al Qaeda. After all, how could the world's biggest military, in the employ of its most powerful country, search for almost ten years and fail to find a single middle-aged man in waning health? To his supporters, only God's protection explained this mystery.

Bin Laden's death renders that protection considerably more debatable in the eyes of would-be jihadists. Less mystically, global jihad has lost its marquee name: Egyptian jihadist Ayman al Zawahiri, bin Laden's probable successor, may be an effective operator, but has far less starpower than his former boss and is unlikely to inspire Muslims as effectively. No less importantly, al Qaeda will find it hard to recruit and fundraise without bin Laden to lead their cause. Rival groups may exploit al Qaeda's leadership weakness to attract the most motivated young men and most important donors, further weakening the group in the long term.

TERRORIST NETWORK STILL ALIVE

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THE United States needed to eliminate Osama bin Laden to fulfill our sense of justice and, to a lesser extent, to end the myth of his invincibility. But dropping Bin Laden’s corpse in the sea does not end the terrorist threat, nor does it remove the ideological motivation of Al Qaeda’s supporters.

In the months ahead, Bin Laden’s death may encourage Al Qaeda to stage an attack to counter the impression that it is out of business. The more significant threat, however, will come from Al Qaeda’s local affiliates. Bin Laden and his deputies designed Al Qaeda as a network of affiliated groups that could operate largely independently to attack America, Europe and secular governments in the Middle East in order to establish fundamentalist regimes. Once in place, the network no longer needed Bin Laden and, in fact, has been proceeding with minimal direction from him for several years.

The affiliates that Bin Laden helped to create, including Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Al Shabab in Somalia, are still recruiting and financing terrorists and training them for attacks. Neither the events of Tahrir Square nor the raid on Bin Laden’s hideout is likely to significantly diminish the appeal of Islamist extremism to those who have been receptive to it.

BRANKRUPTCY FOR AL-QAEDA?

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Briefing reporters on the details of Osama bin Laden’s killing in Pakistan, the White House’s Deputy National Security Adviser John Brennan remarked optimistically that “bin Laden’s dead. The al-Qaeda narrative’s becoming increasingly bankrupt.”

The main source of al-Qaeda’s revenue doesn’t come from Afghan heroin – the Taliban keep that to themselves – nor from bin Laden’s personal wealth. The son of a billionaire construction magnate, bin Laden was cut off from his family fortune in the mid-1990s. Nor have antiterrorism investigators been able to find any financial ties linking al-Qaeda to any state, be it Iraq or Saudi Arabia. Since 9/11, al-Qaeda has financed itself through private donors, large and small. The large are rich and sympathetic private individuals in the Gulf. The small are numerous; throughout the Islamic world, some Muslims inspired by bin Laden’s anti-Western rhetoric choose to fulfill their vow of zakat or charity by giving alms to organizations loosely tied to al-Qaeda.

The telegenic figure of bin Laden was always the main draw. His myth, that of the giant, soft-spoken warrior who gave up palatial luxuries for jihad, resonated with many rich Gulf sheiks who eased their conscience by sending a pile of cash his way. It was easier than picking up an AK-47 and following bin Laden into the snowy Afghan wastes. From Casablanca to Peshawar in Pakistan, young, impressionable Muslims carry photos of bin Laden on their cell phones. They would download his sermons from as-Sahab and extremist websites, whenever he managed to smuggle them out.

Al-Qaeda was also crippled by a post-9/11 U.S.-led global squeeze on banks and financial institutions suspected of aiding the terrorist network. Undaunted, al-Qaeda then relied on cash couriers, many of them Pashtuns from the tribal areas. During their years in hiding after 9/11, scores of al-Qaeda fighters married into the local Pashtun clans. Arrangements were made for these Pashtun relatives to pick up suitcases of cash from Gulf sympathizers during the annual Haj pilgrimage to Mecca and pass them back to al-Qaeda, according to a tribal elder in South Waziristan. But that was a mere trickle compared to the millions that used to reach al-Qaeda before the banks cracked down.

CORE CONSIDERATION: SURVIVAL, NOT SUCCESSION

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Evading capture will be the overwhelming priority for al Qaeda's central leadership in the Afghan-Pakistan border area after the U.S. seized potentially vital intelligence during the raid that killed Osama bin Laden.

The delicate task of agreeing a replacement for the group's founder and inspirational figurehead, let alone avenging his death, are challenges that may have to wait.

If and when the 20 or so core commanders feel their physical security has been adequately safeguarded, the group can start to assess bin Laden's loss, agree on a new chief and renew ties to the group's allies and affiliates.

The view, from their perspective, will be bleak: Even before bin Laden's death, mainly peaceful revolts against Arab despots had made al Qaeda's path of violence seem ever more irrelevant.

"Al Qaeda Central will continue, zombie-like, to wreak havoc, but it will never be the same," wrote Thomas Hegghammer, a scholar at the Norwegian Defense Research Estalsihgment.

"Bin Laden ... was the driving force of the organization and much has died with him."

And avenging his death, in the short term, will be a job best delegated to the tiny but passionate global community of al Qaeda sympathizers, counter-terrorism experts say.

But the immediate task will simply be to protect life and liberty, assessing what new dangers have been created by the seizure of intelligence during the raid on bin Laden's house.(TIME/NY Times/Foreign Policy/Reuters/AFP/Daily Mail)

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