中国经济：拐点即将到来The end of cheap: China’s tipping point

The Chinese economy has been described (by James Kynge, for one) as an elephant riding a bicycle – fine so long as it keeps going, but if it slows, it’ll cause an awfully big mess. Now, with the combination of a rapidly ageing population and rising wages, inflation in China is going to go up, and growth is going to slow.

金奇(James Kynge)等人曾把中国经济形容为骑在自行车上的大象——只要还在前进就没有问题，但一旦减速后果就不堪设想。现在，快速老龄化的人口和不断上涨的工资意味着，中国的通胀将会上升，增长将会放缓。

As one government economist put it on Thursday, for China, ‘a major turning point is at hand.’

正如一名官方经济学家周四所说的，对中国来说，“大拐点即将到来”。

As Reuters reported on Thursday:

路透社(Reuters)周四报道称：

“The current data show China has already crossed the Lewis turning point, and at the same time the window of the demographic dividend will soon close,” Ba Shusong wrote in the Economic Information Daily.

“目前的数据，确认了中国已经越过刘易斯拐点，同时，人口红利窗口期也即将关闭，”巴曙松在《经济参考报》撰文表示。

“The shortages of rural migrant workers since 2004 have been no passing blip, but the signal that a major turning point is at hand — a transformational trend,” Ba wrote.

“2004年以来的民工荒并非一时之事，而是大拐点即将到来的标志，是趋势性的改变，”巴曙松写道。

Perhaps even more important – both for China and for the rest of the world – is this:

无论对中国还是对世界其它地方来说，也许更重要的是：

“Workers’ rising wages will push up the cost core so that the low inflation possible when labor supply was abundant will be unsustainable,” he wrote. “Second, after crossing the turning point, economic growth will experience systemic slowing.”

“劳动者工资上涨将推动价格中枢的上升，劳动力供给充分条件下的低通胀态势将不可持续，”他写道。“二是，越过拐点后经济增长中枢将出现系统性下降。”

Over the short-term, most China economists say that inflation will peak in the next month or so (it hit 5.4 per cent last month), and that prices will get back into comfortable territory for the rest of the year. The government is taking steps to make sure that happens – it has prevented some commodity price rises from being passed on to consumers, and there are certainly noises that suggest a stronger renminbi could be coming. But it’ll be hard to keep a lid on prices forever, despite Beijing’s huge cash pile.

就短期而言，多数中国经济学家表示，通胀将在下一个月左右见顶（上月通胀达到 5.4%），今年剩余时间价格将重返适宜区间。政府正采取措施确保这成为现实——官方已出面阻止某些大宗商品价格上涨被转嫁给消费者，还有传言暗示，人民 币可能升值。但永久遏制价格上涨是很难的，尽管北京方面坐拥巨额现金。

If recent years were a period of ‘low inflation’ fuelled by low labour costs, what would ‘normal’ inflation rates look like? Recent history offers some worrying precendents.

如果近几年是由低廉劳动力成本推动的“低通胀”时期，那么“正常”通胀率会是什么样的呢？近期历史提供了一些令人不安的先例。

In the mid-1990s, for example, Chinese CPI regularly topped 10 per cent. In fact, in late 1994 it peaked at nearly 30 per cent.

以上世纪90年代中期为例，中国的消费价格指数(CPI)经常超过10%。事实上，1994年末期中国通胀在接近30%的高位见顶。

As George Magnus wrote in Wednesday’s FT, China could soon be facing a ‘Minsky moment’.

正如乔治?马格纳斯(George Magnus)在周三的英国《金融时报》上所写的，中国不久可能将面临“明斯基时刻”（Minsky Moment，资产价值崩溃时刻——译者注）。

Decisive, sustained measures to put China’s inflation and credit genies back in the bottle, including a significant rise in interest rates, would hit cyclical growth. But they would make growth more sustainable by taming investment and allowing time for other measures to boost household incomes and consumption.

若为了遏制中国的通胀和信贷而采取果断、持续的措施，包括大幅提高利率，那将打击周期性增长。但这些措施将使增长变得更可持续，因为它们将抑制投资，让其它措施有充分时间发挥作用，以提振家庭收入和消费。

A different scenario is all too plausible. In this, the leadership changeover in 2012, a reluctance to compromise growth or alienate workers, and political interests in rising property prices could lead to a premature call of victory over inflation. This might boost asset price and growth in the short term, but increase the likelihood the new leadership will have to deal with a credit-fuelled Minsky moment.

另一种情景也是很可信的。在这种情景中，2012年的领导层交接、一种不愿影响增长或 引起工人不满的心态、以及不断上涨的楼价所涉及的政治利益，可能导致政府过早宣称遏制通胀取得胜利。这可能在短期提振资产价格和增长，但加大了这样一种可 能性：新领导层将不得不去应对信贷推动的“明斯基时刻”。

A Chinese Minsky moment would hit global growth and resource markets, and shock the consensus about steady appreciation of the renminbi. It would also undermine China’s aim of rebalancing its economy towards consumers; and raise the risk of political unrest.

中国若遭遇“明斯基时刻”，将打击全球增长和资源市场，冲击有关人民币稳步升值的共识。它还将影响中国再平衡本国经济、提高消费在经济中所占比重的目标，并加大政治不安定的风险。

Developed countries (and emerging markets too) have benefited from years of cheap Chinese manufactured products, which have helped usher in a decade of low inflation around the world. Is there any other country capable of picking up the slack?

多年来，发达国家（以及其它新兴市场经济体）获益于廉价的中国制成品，这些廉价产品帮助为世界带来了10年的低通胀。还有其它任何国家能够填补中国留出的空缺吗？

China, faced with a demographic tipping point, may well win the Inflation Battle of 2011. But the war goes on, and if anything, it is set for a much more difficult next phase.

面对人口结构拐点的中国，很可能打赢2011年的抗击通胀之战。但这场“战争”将进行下去，如果说有任何变化的话，那便是它将进入难度大得多的下一阶段。