赛尔号辅助器秒杀:美联储表态软弱无力?美元跌向无尽深渊 - FX168外汇宝网站

美联储表态软弱无力 美元跌向无尽深渊
【北京时间 2011年04月28日 04:20】      我要评论(0)

美联储(FED)周三(4月27日)公布了本年度第3次利率决议及政策声明，一如市场预期般维持利率以及量化宽松政策不变，政策声明的整体措辞较3月政策会议未有较大变动。
 
另外，美联储主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)有史以来首次在会后召开的新闻发布会也乏善可陈。市场巨大的心理落差帮助美元指数再次刷新3年新低73.26水平。主要非美纷纷拔高，欧元/美元登上1.4790一线，英镑/美元涨至1.6630上方。
 
◎ 美联储：美国经济温和复苏，联储货币政策维持不变
 
美联储在声明中称，美国经济复苏正以温和的步伐进展，总体就业市场正在逐步改善。家庭支出以及设备和软件的商业投资继续增长。然而，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场继续承压。自夏季以来，商品价格已经大幅增长。与此同时，市场对全球原油供应的担忧导致3月会议后油价进一步走强，但较长期通胀预期已保持稳定，基本通胀迟滞。
 
该声明还称，从目前的经济形势来看，失业率依然居高不下，同时基本通胀相对委员会认为符合较长期双目标水准而言较低，不过近几个月能源和其它商品价格上扬推高通胀。委员会预计这些影响将是暂时的，但将密切关注通胀和通胀预期的发展。委员会预计在物价稳定的情况下，资源利用将逐步恢复至较高水准。
 
委员会在本次会议中决定一如11月声明中宣布的继续增持证券仓位。维持现有的对到期证券回笼资金再投资的政策，以及将在2011年第二季结束前完成购买6,000亿美元较长期美国国债。委员会将定期检讨证券购买的进度和资产购买计划整体规模，并在需要时作出调整，以最好的达到就业最大化和物价稳定。
 
此外，委员会将维持联邦基金利率在0-0.25%的区间不变，并继续预计在包括较低的资源使用率，通胀趋势受到抑压和通胀预期稳定的经济状况影响下，联邦基金利率将在较长时间内持于超低水准。对此次政策决定是委员一致投票通过的。
 
◎ 伯南克：6月份之后宽松规模仍将维持稳定
 
美联储主席伯南克在会后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储将按照计划在6月底之前完成6,000亿美元的购债计划。另外，联储在此之后的宽松规模仍将维持稳定，联储并不急于采取激进举措收紧货币政策。
 
伯南克首先对第二轮量化宽松政策效果给予了充分的肯定。他指出，在宽松政策环境下，金融市场状况出现改善、波动性降低、股市也实现了上扬，也降低了信贷息差。虽然QE2不是万能药，但其确实将美国经济引向了正确的方向。
 
伯南克表示，在联储退出宽松政策的某个点上，可能初步步骤将是停止再投资，停止全部或部分再投资将是收紧货币政策的一种形式。他还指出，市场对于美联储于6月完成购债后结束QE2早已作好了预期，因此QE2的结束不会对市场造成较大影响。
 
◎分析师：美联储货币政策未变，美元急速溜滑梯
 
分析人士指出，乏善可陈的货币政策声明以及温和的伯南克措辞与市场预期形成巨大落差，美元瞬间受到显著压力，美指恐跌向73.00一线。
 
4CAST LTD的经济学家Sean Incremona表示：毫无意外，从第一眼来看，美联储的声明基本与准备稿一致，政策没有改变，与预期一样。这对于美元来说不是个好消息。
 
Incremona指出：“与美联储将在6月底足额完成第二轮量化宽松政策的基本预期一致，曾有人质疑美联储是否会削减计划规模，但我们在11月看到的计划没有改变。”
 
ING capital markets汇市交易部门董事John McCarthy表示：“美元因联储政策声明一如预期而面临抛压。”
 
北京时间04:07，美元指数报73.29。
 
 
发布日期(美国时间)2011/04/27
利率动向维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。
会后声明重点总体经济表现：根据美联储公开市场委员会3月会议后获得的信息，美国经济复苏正以温和的步伐进展，总体就业市场正在逐步改善。家庭支出以及设备和软件的商业投资继续增长。然而，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场继续承压。
 
通货膨胀：自夏季以来，商品价格已经大幅增长。与此同时，市场对全球原油供应的担忧导致3月会议后油价进一步走强，但较长期通胀预期已保持稳定，基本通胀迟滞。
 
维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为促进经济更强劲复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的进展达致符合目标水准，委员会在本次会议中决定一如11月声明中宣布的继续增持证券仓位。
会后声明重点(英文)Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradually. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand.
 
Inflation: Commodity prices have risen significantly since last summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March. Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued. .
 
Continue expanding the holdings of securities:  To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November.
备注提示美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议
发布日期(美国时间)2011/03/15
利率动向维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。
会后声明重点总体经济表现：根据美联储公开市场委员会1月会议后获得的信息，经济复苏的根基更为稳固，总体劳动力市场正逐步改善。家庭支出以及设备和软件的商业投资继续增长。然而，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场继续承压。
 
通货膨胀：自夏季以来，商品价格已经大幅增长，同时最近几周，市场对于全球原油供应的担忧也已令油价大幅飙升。但是，长期通胀预期仍旧维持稳定，基本通胀依然受限。
 
维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为促进经济更为强劲地复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的发展达到符合目标的水平，委员会决定继续实施11月宣布的计划，即扩大证券持仓规模。
会后声明重点(英文)Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economic recovery is on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed.
 
Inflation: Commodity prices have risen significantly since the summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a sharp run-up in oil prices in recent weeks. Nonetheless, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been subdued.
 
Continue expanding the holdings of securities:  To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding
its holdings of securities as announced in November.
备注提示美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议
发布日期(美国时间)2011/01/26
利率动向维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。
会后声明重点总体经济表现： 根据12月FOMC会议以后获得的信息，美联储进一步确认了美国经济复苏正在持续，但是经济增速不足以大幅改善劳动力市场环境。去年年底家庭支出获得了改善，但是仍旧因失业率高企、收入增长温和、家庭财富缩水以及信贷紧缩而受到限制。设备及软件的商业支出正在增加，但是非住宅建筑的投资仍旧疲软。同时雇主仍旧不愿意增加雇员。房产市场继续低迷。
 
通货膨胀：尽管商品价格已经走高，较长期的通胀预期仍旧维稳，基本通胀水平已经趋于下行。
 
维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为了促进经济以更为强劲的步伐复苏，并帮助通胀随着时间的推移达到符合目标的水平，委员会决定将继续实施去年11月宣布的扩大持有证券规模的计划。
会后声明重点(英文)Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, while investment in nonresidential structures is still weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed.
 
Inflation: Although commodity prices have risen, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward.
 
Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November.
备注提示美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议
发布日期(美国时间)2010/12/14
利率动向维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。
会后声明重点总体经济表现：11月会议后FOMC获得的信息确认了经济复苏正在持续的观点，但是复苏步伐尚不足以降低失业率。居民支出正在以温和的步伐增长，但是仍旧受到高失业率、收入增长温和、家庭财富减少以及信贷收紧的限制。设备及软件的支出正在增加，但是增速较年初缓慢，非居住型建筑的投资仍旧疲软。雇主仍不愿意增加雇员，房产市场继续萧条。
 
通货膨胀：长期通胀预期已经持稳，但是基础通胀继续趋于下行。
 
维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为了促进经济复苏更为强劲并帮助确保长期通胀水平与美联储的职责目标相一致，FOMC决定继续实施11月宣布的扩大持有债券规模的计划，并将维持现有的将抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)到期后回笼资金进行再投资的政策。在这个基础上，委员会将在2011年第二季结束前进一步购买6,000亿美元较长期美国国债，每月购入约750亿美元。委员会将定期检视证券购买的进度和购买计划的整体规模，根据新的信息在需要时作出调整，从而最好地达到就业最大化和物价稳定的目标。
会后声明重点(英文)Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment. Household spending is increasing at a moderate pace, but remains constrained by high unemployment,
modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers
remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed.
 
Inflation: Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have continued to trend downward.
 
Continue expanding the holdings of securities:  To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding
its holdings of securities as announced in November. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
发布日期(美国时间)2010/11/3
利率动向维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%，但将在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元的美国国债以提振经济。
会后声明重点总体经济表现：自9月美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议至今收到的信息进一步证明，美国经济产出以及就业的复苏步伐继续缓慢，家庭支出逐步增长，但仍因失业率高企而受限，收入增长温和，家庭财富减少，同时信贷环境趋紧。设备及软件的商业投资正在增加，虽然增速不及今年早期，非住宅投资继续疲软，雇主仍旧不愿增加雇员，新屋开工持续受挫，较长期的通胀预期已经持稳，但最近几个季度潜在通胀趋于走低。
 
通货膨胀：委员会将依照法定的目标，寻求促进就业最大化和物价稳定的方法。目前，失业率上升，基本通胀相对委员会认为符合较长期目标的水平较低。
 
增加证券持仓规模：为促进经济更强劲复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的进展达到符合目标的水准，委员会决定增持证券仓位。将维持现有的对到期证券回笼资金再投资的政策，并在此基础上在2011年第二季前进一步购买6,000亿美元的较长期美国国债，每月购买量约为750亿美元。同时，委员会将例行检视证券购买的进度和资产购买计划的整体规模，并在需要时按照新的信息作出调整，从而最大限度地达到就业最大化和物价稳定的目标。
会后声明重点(英文)Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts continue to be depressed.
 
Inflation: Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters.  Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate.Expand the holdings of securities: To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
备注提示霍恩相信进一步购买证券弊大于利，高度宽松的货币政策增加了未来金融市场失衡的风险，并随着时间发展，可能导致长期通胀预期的上升，令经济不稳。
发布日期(美国时间)2010/9/21
利率动向维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点总体经济表现：根据8月FOMC议息会议后所得到的信息，近几个月产出及就业方面的复苏步伐开始放缓。家庭支出正在逐渐增加，但仍旧受到高失业率、居民收入增加温和、家庭财富下降以及信贷紧缩的限制。设备以及软件投资正在增加，但增速低于年初的水平。而对非住宅结构的投资继续保持疲弱。雇主仍不愿招聘员工。房屋开工仍旧受限。银行借贷继续萎缩，但在近几个月有所缓和。
 
通货膨胀：委员会预计，尽管短期内经济复苏的步伐可能较原先预期的要慢，但在物价稳定的情况下，资源利用将逐步恢复至较高水准。目前潜在通胀趋势某种程度上略低，无法长期、最大化地促进就业和物价稳定。由于大量的资源闲置可能继续限制成本压力，且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低的水平，此后将回升至其认为的符合目标的水准。
会后声明重点(英文)Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising,  though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months. The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of  economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term. 
 
Inflation: Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandates to promote maximum employment and price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate. 
备注提示霍恩认为经济继续温和复苏，因此不再需要维持极低利率更长一段时间的承诺，而这将导致未来经济进一步失衡，并损害经济的长期稳定增长。
发布日期(美国时间)2010/8/10
利率动向维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点总体经济表现：自6月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)议息会议以后，众多信号显示美国产出及就业方面的复苏步伐有所放缓。居民消费正逐渐上涨，但仍旧受到高失业率、经济增长温和、房产价格下滑以及信贷收紧的限制。软件及设备的投资额正在增长，然而，非住宅部门继续维持疲软，企业仍旧不愿意增加雇员。新屋开工维持在疲弱的水平。银行借贷继续萎缩。
 
通货膨胀：近几个季度通胀率趋于下行，随着大量的闲置资源令成本价格承压，长期通胀预期维持稳定，通胀率可能在未来一段时间内受限。
会后声明重点(英文)
 Economy:  Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and
employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract.
 
Inflation: Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters, and with substantial resource slack continuing to constrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
备注提示霍恩认为美国的经济正按计划地温和复苏，因此没有理由延长极低利率更长一段时间，这将限制调整必要政策的能力。
发布日期(美国时间)2010/6/23
利率动向维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点总体经济表现：美国经济复苏在持续，就业市场逐步改善。家庭支出也在增加，但因失业率高企、收入增长不大、家庭财富下降及信贷紧缩而依然受压。企业对设备和软件的开支大幅增加，但对非住宅结构的投资继续保持疲弱，雇主仍在招聘人手上犹豫不决。房屋开工仍处于受压水准。
 
通货膨胀：近几个月，能源和其他商品价格已有所下滑，潜在通胀趋势下滑。由于大量的资源闲置可能继续打压成本压力，且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低的水平。
会后声明重点(英文)
 Economy：Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually.
 
Inflation：Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months, and underlying inflation has  trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
备注提示霍恩认为不再需要长时间维持低利率，称这一承诺限制了美联储开始小幅升息的灵活性。
发布日期(美国时间)2010/04/28
利率动向维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点总体经济表现：美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)自3月会议以来获得的信息表明，美国经济活动继续增强，就业市场开始改善。家庭支出增长近期加快，但因失业率高企、收入增长不大、家庭财富下降及信贷紧缩而依然受压；企业对设备和软件的开支大幅增加，但雇主仍在招聘人手上犹豫不决，房屋开工小涨，但仍处于受压水准。
 
通货膨胀：由于大量的资源闲置可能继续打压成本压力，且长期通胀预期稳定，预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低的水平。
会后声明重点(英文)
 Economy：Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March  suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve.
 
Inflation：With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time. 
 
备注提示霍恩认为不再需要长时间维持低利率，称这一承诺限制了美联储开始小幅升息的灵活性。
发布日期(美国时间)2010/03/16
利率动向维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点
 总体经济表现：美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)自1月会议以来获得的信息表明，美国经济活动继续强化，就业市场正在稳定。家庭支出显现温和增加，但受失业率高企、收入增长不大、家庭财富下降及信贷紧缩等因素影响，家庭支出依然受压。
 
通货膨胀：由于资源大量剩余可能继续打压成本压力，而且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低水平。
会后声明重点(英文)
 Economy："Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January  suggests that economic  activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor  market is stabilizing.
 
Inflation：With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and  longer-term inflation  expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for  some time.
备注提示霍恩认为情况已经改变，不再需要长时间维持低利率
发布日期(美国时间)2010/01/27
利率动向维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点
 
 总体经济表现：美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)自12月会议以来获得的信息表明，美国经济活动继续强化，就业市场恶化程度减弱。
 
通货膨胀：由于资源大量剩余可能继续打压成本压力，而且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低水平。
会后声明重点(英文)
 
 Economy：Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating.
 
Inflation：With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
备注提示霍恩认为情况已经改变，不再需要长时间维持低利率 
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