贾樟柯三部曲顺序:Shifts in the naval balance of the Pacific - ...

来源：百度文库编辑：九乡新闻网时间：2024/05/04 07:22:20

Shifts in the naval balance of the Pacific

While China is putting the last touches on its first operational aircraft carrier and Russia is redeploying its naval forces, the strategic balance of the Pacific Ocean is shifting towards what could be seen as a negative situation for United States naval hegemony in the Pacific. These impending changes to the naval balance in the East Asia region are bound to have implications on the political stability and cooperation in the region.

By Frederik Van Lokeren

The current US naval hegemony in the western Pacific could be threatened by the deployment of a Chinese aircraft carrier in the near future. China itself will be presented with a dilemma on where to deploy its carriers, choosing to counter US influence in the region or to protect its supply lines coming in through the Indian Ocean. Due to China’s ability to deploy more force to the Pacific, Russia has also apparently made its Pacific fleet into a priority. Russia is planning to deploy its first French-built Mistral helicopter platform ship as part of its pacific fleet, and it is also planning to deploy an extra Slava class missile cruiser (nicknamed “killer of aircraft carriers”) to the Pacific. The most modern Russian SSBN’s, the Borei class submarines, are also scheduled for deployment in the Pacific in the near future. The US navy is currently on the decline and lacks the necessary facilities to urgently deploy its Pacific fleet in Eastern Asia when necessary. The Russian shift of attention from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean does grant the US navy the ability to similarly shift units from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

The latest news from China suggests that China has almost finished and modernized the Russian aircraft carrier ‘Varyag’. It is being suggested that the carrier could be taken into service by the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) as early as 2011. When this happens China will access to the necessary means to counter the US 7th fleet, built around the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, in the East Asian region. It will, however, take several more years before China would be able to get the hang of carrier operations and is able to present an actual threat to the USS George Washington, although the mere presence of an aircraft carrier will already embolden the PLAN. Combined with the aggressive strategic stance of the PLAN, causing it to claim the North, East and South Chinese seas as territorial waters, this will make the PLAN, strengthened by a carrier battle group, the dominant player in the western Pacific. An aircraft carrier will also enable the ‘blue water navy’ capability that would allow China to project power beyond the ‘first island chain’.

The question that remains is how many aircraft carriers China is exactly planning to build, and where exactly it will deploy these. In the maritime field China is forced to operate on two distinct fronts. In the Pacific China needs to develop the necessary strength and combat power to counter the US Navy’s influence and ability to threaten China in the case of a conflict. The Chinese economy, however, is depending on raw materials coming from Africa. The supply lines of these materials pass through the Indian Ocean where the Indian navy will continue to play a more important role in the future. In order to guarantee the safety and freedom of its supply routes China would also be required to deploy aircraft carriers to the Indian Ocean in order to counter the presence of Indian carriers.

US carrier.jpg (30.42 KB)
2011-4-25 12:22
File - USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier in Yokosuka, Japan

With a growing PLAN in the Pacific we can notice a renewed Russian interest in this region. During the previous years we’ve seen Russian attempts to economically integrate Siberia into the East Asian region, primarily as a supplier of raw materials to both China and Japan. Now we can also see Russia inflate its military presence in the region, most notably its maritime presence. Russia has already declared that its first Mistral class ship, ordered from France, will be deployed to its Pacific fleet. The plan is to use the ship as a helicopter carrier in support of patrols against illegal fishing and smuggling. By doing this, Russia can relieve some of the pressure that is currently on ageing smaller patrol ships in the Russian Pacific fleet. Apart from this, Russia is also planning to redeploy the Marshal Ustinov, the 3rd ship of the Slava class, to the Pacific fleet. The ship is currently part of the Northern fleet and Russia plans to modernize it before redeploying it to its Pacific fleet by 2013. Russia currently already operates a Slava class missile cruiser in the Pacific, the Varyag. It is not certain whether the Marshal Ustinov will complement or replace the Varyag in the Pacific fleet, but due to the current good state of the Varyag it looks like Russia might be planning to deploy two Slava class missile cruisers in the Pacific. Each of these cruisers is reported to be able to successfully assault a carrier task force with its P-500 Bazalt missiles (NATO designation SS-N-12 Sandbox). The Slava class was therefore appropriately named the “killer of aircraft carriers”. With 2 Slava class cruisers present in the Pacific fleet, Russia could be able to simultaneously counter United States aircraft carriers as well as China’s carriers.

Russia also deploys SSBN’s (ballistic missile submarines) in the Pacific. The Russian navy was recently reported as planning to send the first four Borei class submarines to the Pacific fleet as soon as the Yuri Dolgorukiy has successfully tested the Bulava ICBM missiles. These tests are expected to take place during the summer of 2011. The four Borei class submarines would be used to replace the aged Delta III class SSBN’s that are currently part of the Pacific fleet. This is not an odd move since the Russian Northern fleet is able to fall back upon its modernized Delta IV class SSBN’s for at least the next decennium. The deployment of Borei class submarines to the Northern fleet currently isn’t seen as a priority to the Russian Navy. It is not clear whether Russia will decide to also deploy net attack submarines of the Yasen class to the Pacific fleet. It is not entirely impossible that these submarines would be immediately deployed to the Pacific as soon as they finish sea trials.

Due to the rise of both the PLAN and the Russian navy, the US Navy is forced to respond to these evolutions. The US Navy currently deploys about 60 percent of its nuclear submarines in the Pacific. Combined with the US 7th fleet, stationed at Yokosuka, Japan, the US has an extremely strong military presence in the western Pacific waters. As opposed to China, however, the US economy is currently in decline, and so is the size of its navy. The same declining size of naval forces can be observed with almost every western nation hit by the recession. The United States, in its role of great power, is also forced to defend its interests all over the world. This occupies a certain amount of ships that are part of operations in different parts of the world which are then obviously not available for operations in Eastern Asia. The military operations in Afghanistan and Libya, for example, have caused the US Navy to commit the 5th and 6th fleet. In order to further complicate matters, the US has decided to concentrate on warfare in littoral waters by use of the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS). By doing this, the US Navy is sacrificing part of its ‘blue water’ navy capabilities while both China and Russia are raising their corresponding capabilities. The United States does have the Atlantic Ocean that serves as a reserve for its units in the Pacific. As Russia shifts its naval capabilities from one side to another, it will take less US Navy assets to effectively counter Russian activity in the Atlantic Ocean. If necessary the United States would even be able to call upon NATO to counter the Russian navy’s activities around the Atlantic.

The US Navy is also forced to rely on a modest supply network for its operations in the western Pacific. The two largest US naval bases nearby are Hawaii and San Diego when it comes to supporting aircraft carriers. Both are thousands of miles away from China and Russia as well as the principal area where US military strength is being challenged. The US 7th fleet base in Yokosuka, Japan, allows for a forward deployment, but this base is nowhere near large enough to support all of the US naval units in the Pacific in order to counter the growing PLAN and Russian navy presence. On top of this the only shipyard capable to handling the US aircraft carriers is located at Norfolk, Virginia, on the Atlantic Ocean. Due to transit times and the time necessary for maintenance and repairs to aircraft carriers, it looks like the US would only be able to immediately deploy a very limited number of carriers to the Pacific when necessary. This will definitely become apparent as China constructs more carriers during the next decennia and deploys these in the Pacific.

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