WHERE has President Bashar al-Assad of Syria been this past week?

Thousands of Syrians across the country have staged demonstrationsagainst the government, and dozens of protesters have been reportedkilled by security forces. The cabinet was dismissedon Tuesday, although that’s a meaningless gesture unless it’s followedby real reform. Through it all Mr. Assad has remained so quiet thatrumors were rampant that he had been overthrown. But while Syrians aredesperate for leadership, it’s not yet clear what sort of leader Mr.Assad is going to be.

Will he be like his father, Hafez al-Assad, who during three decades inpower gave the security forces virtually a free hand to maintain orderand sanctioned the brutal repression of a violent Islamist uprising inthe early 1980s? Or will he see this as an opportunity to take Syria in anew direction, fulfilling the promise ascribed to him when he assumedthe presidency upon his father’s death in 2000?

Mr. Assad’s background suggests he could go either way. He is a licensedophthalmologist who studied in London and a computer nerd who likes thetechnological toys of the West; his wife, Asma, born in Britain toSyrian parents, was a banker at J. P. Morgan. On the other hand, he is achild of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the cold war. Contrary toAmerican interests, he firmly believes Lebanon should be within Syria’ssphere of influence, and he is a member of a minority Islamic sect, theAlawites, that has had a chokehold on power in Syria for decades.

In 2004 and 2005, while writing a book on him, I had long interviewswith Mr. Assad; after the book was published, I continued to meet withhim as an unofficial liaison between Syria and the United States whenrelations between the two countries deteriorated. In that time I saw Mr.Assad evolve into a confident and battle-tested president.

I also saw him being consumed by an inert Syrian system. Slowly, hereplaced those of questionable loyalty with allies in the military,security services and in the government. But he does not have absolutepower. He has had to bargain, negotiate and manipulate pockets ofresistance inside the government and the business community to bringabout reforms, like allowing private banks and establishing a stockexchange, that would shift Syria’s socialist-based system to a moremarket-oriented economy.

But Mr. Assad also changed along the way. When I met with him during theSyrian presidential referendum in May 2007, he voiced an almostcathartic relief that the people really liked him. Indeed, theoutpouring of support for Mr. Assad would have been impressive if he hadnot been the only one running, and if half of it wasn’t staged. As istypical for authoritarian leaders, he had begun to equate his well-beingwith that of his country, and the sycophants around him reinforced thenotion. It was obvious that he was president for life. Still, I believedhe had good intentions, if awkwardly expressed at times.

Even with the escalating violence there, it’s important to remember thatSyria is not Libya and President Assad is not Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.The crackdown on protesters doesn’t necessarily indicate that he istightening his grip on power; it may be that the secret police, longgiven too much leeway, have been taking matters into their own hands.

What’s more, anti-Assad elements should be careful what they wish for.Syria is ethnically and religiously diverse and, with the precipitousremoval of central authority, it could very well implode like Iraq. Thatis why the Obama administration wants him to stay in power even as itadmonishes him to choose the path of reform.

Today, President Assad is expected to announce that the country’s almost50-year emergency law, used to stifle opposition to the regime, isgoing to be lifted. But he needs to make other tough choices, includingsetting presidential term limits and dismantling the police state. Hecan change the course of Syria by giving up that with which he hasbecome so comfortable.

The unrest in Syria may have afforded President Assad one last chance atbeing something more than simply Hafez al-Assad’s son.