也门总统咎由自取Sit tight and let the bugs bite Yemen’s ruler

In the shade of a eucalyptus tree on a banana farm outside Yemen’s second city of Aden, a wise Yemeni friend was musing on how President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s three decades of misrule might end. “The bugs in your own shirt are the ones that hurt you,” was the proverb he reached for.

在也门第二大城市亚丁(Aden)郊外一座香蕉农场的一棵桉树底下，一位见识广博的也门朋友正在思索阿里•阿卜杜拉•萨利赫总统(Ali Abdullah Saleh)30年的糟糕执政将如何收场。结果他想到了这句谚语：“你自己衬衣上的虫子才会咬伤你。”

Events seem to be proving him right. Despite Mr Saleh’s pledge not to repress protesters, some 45 unarmed Yemenis were killed on Friday by snipers while security personnel stood by. The atrocity triggered a rash of resignations; “bugs” of all kinds – government ministers, hitherto loyal tribal sheikhs and ambassadors abandoned his cause.

局势的演变似乎证明他是对的。尽管萨利赫承诺不镇压反政府示威者，但上周五大约45名手无寸铁的也门人死于狙击手的冷枪，而军警就在一边旁观。这一暴行引发多人辞职；各类“虫子”——内阁部长、此前忠诚的部落酋长和驻外大使们相继弃他而去。

On Monday, a member of his own Hashid tribal grouping and the man long seen as the second power in the land, General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar followed suit, rolling out his tanks to protect the protesters’ square, the state television station and the Defence Ministry. Only a few very closely related “bugs” are still holding tight: the defence minister, four of the president’s nephews who preside over various security services, and his son Ahmad, the elite Republican Guard commander, who has parked his tanks outside Mr Saleh’s high-walled fortress-cum-palace on the edge of Sana'a.

本周一，萨利赫的Hashid部族同乡、长期被视为也门二号人物的艾哈迈尔将军(Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar)也跟着倒戈，还派出坦克保护示威者所在的广场、国家电视台和国防部。只有少数关系极其亲近的“虫子”依然效忠萨利赫：国防部长、总统的四位在安全部门担任要职的侄子，以及他的儿子、精英部队“革命卫队”的指挥官艾哈迈德(Ahmad)。艾哈迈德把他的坦克部队部署在萨利赫位于首都萨那边缘的官邸兼要塞的高墙外。

So how should the west respond to the plight of its old ally in the fight against Islamist terror? There is only one answer: jettison the Armageddon scenario of an al-Qaeda-run Yemen, and welcome Mr Saleh’s inevitable ousting.

一同打击伊斯兰恐怖主义的多年盟友如今身陷窘境，西方应该作何反应？答案只有一个：抛弃“基地”组织控制也门这一末日景象，对萨利赫无可避免的下台表示欢迎。

The temptation will be not to rock the boat. The turmoil after all comes against the backdrop of intervention in Libya. Yet Yemen, is potentially a far bigger “bug” in our shirts than Libya. Its renown as the haven and recruiting ground of the liveliest Osama bin Laden franchise, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), not to mention the chances of its disintegration, and its strategic location at the foot of the Red Sea, have long secured it a starring role in the west’s nightmares.

诱惑是不去改变现状。毕竟，也门动乱的背景是西方正在干预利比亚的局势。然而，比起利比亚，也门可能是沾在我们衬衣上的一只大得多的“虫子”。对奥萨马•本•拉登(Osama Bin Laden)手下最活跃的分支——“基地组织阿拉伯半岛分支”(AQAP)来说，也门既是避风港，也是招兵买马之地。更何况也门存在解体危险，同时在地理上扼守红海的一端出入口，战略位置十分重要，这一切使其长期在西方的噩梦中扮演主角。

The prospect of two ungoverned states – Yemen and Somalia – at the bottom end of the Red Sea leading to the oil supertankers’ highway of the Suez Canal, alarms Washington almost as much as the fear of an ally in the “war on terror” falling by the wayside. This is why the US has refrained from backing calls for Mr Saleh’s removal. Instead, he has been treated as a valued ally in recognition of his rather belatedly and patchily rendered services against AQAP. There has been no loud threat to curtail an aid package – much of it military – worth $300m and rising again this year.

华盛顿方面对于也门和索马里陷入乱世的担心，几乎不亚于他们对反恐战争的一位盟友下台的担心。这两个国家地处红海南端，扼守着通往苏伊士运河的油轮运输要道。对于要求萨利赫下台的呼声，美国之所以不出声支持，原因就在这里。相反，由于萨利赫在打击基地组织阿拉伯半岛分支中迟缓而零碎的行动，他被当作一位值得重视的盟友。美国并未公开威胁要削减援助——总额达3亿美元，今年还会加码，其中大部分是军事援助。

Last Friday’s atrocity and Gen al-Ahmar’s defection have made this neutral pose look studiedly cynical. Rather, the best hope for western officials is to renounce Mr Saleh and hope the closest “bugs” in his shirt will not adhere to him for long now that leading clergymen, tribesmen and military have deserted his cause.

上周五的暴行与艾哈迈尔将军的倒戈，使得这一中立姿态看上去成了蓄意的见利忘义。既然主要宗教人物、部落成员与军队都已弃他而去，对于西方官员而言，最好的希望在于宣布与萨利赫断绝关系，并期望他那些最亲近的“虫子们”不要依附他太久。

And if Mr Saleh’s toppling is followed by another long-dreaded disaster – the disintegration of the nation state into the two Yemens that existed for almost a century and half before unification in 1990 – then so be it. Feeling burgled and abused by their northern brothers since the merger of their former People’s Democratic Republic of South Yemen with the far larger Yemen Arab Republic, southerners have been battling to regain their independence since 2006. And they are already fretting at the line-up of prominent northern ex-“bugs” who are poised to take power after Mr Saleh: the tribesman multimillionaire Hamid al-Ahmar, the Islamist cleric Majid al-Zindani, and now Gen al-Ahmar.

如果萨利赫倒台后发生另一场人们忧心多时的灾难——这个单一民族国家分裂成两个也门，与1990年统一前持续了近一个半世纪的状态一样——那也没什么。自南也门人民民主共和国(Democratic Republic of South Yemen)与大得多的阿拉伯也门共和国(Yemen Arab Republic)合并以来，南方人一直觉得自己被北方人抢劫与欺负，因而自2006年以来一直在为恢复独立而抗争。如今，他们已开始担忧那些在萨利赫下台后有望掌权的北方前“虫子”：腰缠万贯的部落成员哈米德•阿赫马尔(Hamid al-Ahmar)、伊斯兰教神职人员马吉德•津达尼(Majid al-Zindani)，还有艾哈迈尔将军。

But in the event of a divorce, the re-establishment of two viable Yemens could be vigorously pursued. The UK’s relations with Yemenis in the former south of the country, whose capital Aden was British Crown Colony from 1839 until 1967, would be especially helpful.

但倘若真分裂了，也不妨推动两个也门的重建。英国与昔日的南也门人的关系将尤其有帮助。从1839年至1967年，南也门首府亚丁(Aden)一直是英国的直辖殖民地。

None of this will be easy, of course. Quite apart from the threat of more violence in Yemen than we have yet seen in north Africa – almost every Yemeni owns a gun – the unhappy truth is that with or without Mr Saleh the long-term outlook for Yemenis is bleaker than for North Africans. The poorest Arab country and the most populous on the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen suffers ills too chronic to be healed by a change of president or national borders. Water will run out in the capital by the end of this decade, as will the trickle of oil which has kept the place afloat since 1986. and accounts for about 90 per cent of export revenues. Yet this Middle Eastern spring of revolt has made the chances of AQAP being capable of filling a power vacuum seem remote. There is a more popular movement that has the momentum now. The west can but embrace it.

当然，所有这些都不会容易。也门几乎人人有枪，这意味着该国可能出现比我们在北非见证的更多的暴力。这且不提，不幸的事实是，不管有没有萨利赫，也门人的长期前景都比北非人更加黯淡。也门是最贫困的阿拉伯国家，也是阿拉伯半岛上人口最多的国家，该国的种种苦难是长期的，绝非更换总统或重划边界线所能治愈。也门首都的水资源到2020年将会耗竭，自1986年来维持了国家生存的少量石油产量也将如此——石油收入目前占也门总出口收入的约90%。不过，中东这股革命春潮，似乎已使基地组织阿拉伯半岛分支填补权力真空的机会变得渺茫。目前具有势头的是一股更具群众基础的运动。西方只能拥抱它。

Let’s forget “war on terror” and think Marshall Plan.

让我们还是忘记“反恐战争”，想想“马歇尔计划”(Marshall Plan)吧。

The writer is author of “Yemen: Dancing on the Heads of Snakes”

本文作者著有《也门：在蛇头上舞蹈》(Yemen: Dancing on the Heads of Snakes)一书