自己制作早餐小游戏:What if... 如果…?

What if...
如果…?

Inching back to a Middle East peace
逐步回归中东和平


Nov 22nd 2010 | JERUSALEM |
From The World In 2011 PRINT EDITION


Does someone know the way?
路在何方？

The parties to peacemaking in the Middle East have dubbed 2011 the year of peace. Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the United States all announced in September 2010 that they hoped to wrap up a deal within a year. Egypt’s President Mubarak, urging them on from the sidelines, said if their talks went well it wouldn’t matter if they took an extra month or two. That would bring us to the end of 2011—and great rejoicing the world over.
中东和谈的各方都冀望2011年成为和平之年。就在2010年9月，以色列、巴勒斯坦民族权力机构和美国曾共同发表声明，希望在未来的一年时间里达成和平协议。埃及总统穆巴拉克则希望能够摆脱时间上的限制，根据他的说法，如果各方谈判进行得顺利，延长一两个月也是可以的。这样我们就会来到2011年底，一个举世欢庆的时刻。

There is no need to repeat the litany of disappointment that such prognostications have produced over the years. The scepticism is easily stated. American power is seen to be declining, particularly in the Middle East with the withdrawal through 2011 of the remaining American units from Iraq. Iran continues to bolster its surrogates on Israel’s borders: Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. It continues, too, its march towards nuclear weapons, despite American-led sanctions. The PA leadership—President Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad, the prime minister—is politically weak. Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, is strong, but many feel he is unwilling to use his strength to face down the hardliners in his own camp. Some believe he is at heart still one of them.
然而现实总是让人失望，数年来，人们已经多次作出过类似的预测。怀疑的理由是显而易见。美国的影响力正在衰退，特别是在中东地区，美国在2011年将逐步撤离剩余的驻伊拉克部队。伊朗则在不断扶持自己在以色列周边的代理人，如黎巴嫩的真主党和加沙的哈马斯。此外，尽管遭受美国领导的国际制裁，伊朗仍继续在核武器发展的道路上前行。巴民族权力机构的领导层，主席马哈茂德•阿巴斯和总理萨拉姆•法耶兹，在政治上都处于弱势。以色列总理本雅明•内塔尼亚胡虽然强势，但多数人认为，他不会甘心情愿地利用自身的强势向自己阵营的强硬派拉下脸来。还有一些人认为，他本身就是强硬派中的一员。

Go back a decade, and start again
返回十年前，重新开始

Nevertheless, new hope has crept into the 2011 prognosis. The Obama administration seems to have decided to make Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking the showcase of its resolve to stay engaged in the Middle East. The president and his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, have invested personal prestige in getting the two sides to sit together—and stay seated. With the whole of 2011 available before he is sucked into presidential campaigning, Mr Obama seems intent on giving his peacemaking the quality time it needs.
即便如此，2011年展望还是显露出了一些新希望。奥巴马政府似乎已经笃定推进巴以和谈，以此展示美国继续参与中东事务的决心。奥巴马总统和国务卿希拉里•克林顿甚至动用了个人声望，以促使双方坐在一起，并继续谈下去。奥巴马似乎也已经为实现他的“和平协议”准备了充足的时间，在全身心投入下一届总统选举之前，他有2011整一年可以利用。

Sensing this, moderate Arab leaders like Egypt’s Mr Mubarak, King Abdullah of Jordan and, tentatively as always, the Saudi royals and their Gulf allies, have rallied around the American initiative. Their worry over Iran is as acute as Israel’s. They look to America to prevent a nuclear Iran, rather than risk Israel launching an attack there. They will lend Mr Abbas the Arab support he needs to withstand opposition from Hamas and from within his own Fatah movement as the talks with Israel proceed.
阿拉伯世界里的温和派领导人觉察到了这种变化，如埃及总统穆巴拉克，约旦国王阿卜杜拉，甚至连总在摇摆不定的沙特皇室和他们的海湾盟友也都站出来，响应美国的倡议。他们对伊朗有着与以色列一样的不安。他们更希望通过美国来阻止伊朗的核武器发展，而不是看到以色列对后者发动袭击。他们会给予阿巴斯所需的阿拉伯世界的支持，以应对在与以色列和谈过程中，来自哈马斯和他所在的法塔赫运动组织内部的反对。

Mr Netanyahu, for his part, is moving, belatedly, along the trajectory from diehard to pragmatist drawn by his predecessors, Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert.
就内塔尼亚胡方面而言，他的态度也在改变，虽然这种改变来得很迟，但也还是沿着他的前任阿里埃勒•沙龙和埃胡德•奥尔默特的同样轨迹，从强硬逐渐变得务实。

A reason for hope is that all three negotiators—the Americans will continue to be active—are inching back towards the “Clinton parameters”. That blueprint for peace, devised a decade ago by President Bill Clinton, provides for Israel to annex settlements close to the old West Bank border and the Jewish suburbs it has built in East Jerusalem. These would be swapped for unsettled territory elsewhere, which would become part of the new Palestinian state. The parameters were accepted by the Labour government in Israel under Ehud Barak, today Mr Netanyahu’s minister of defence. They were rejected by Yasser Arafat, the Palestinian president. More wasted years followed when Israelis and Palestinians obtusely failed, after 2005, to broaden Ariel Sharon’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza into a comprehensive peace.
除了美国的持继积极推动，此次和谈被寄以希望的一个原因是，和谈三方又都逐渐向当年提出的“克林顿参数”方案回归。这是十年前由克林顿总统设计的一个和平蓝图：以色列可以保留靠近西岸边境的定居点和建在东耶路撒冷的犹太人社区；作为交换，其他没有定居点的其他地区将成为新建巴勒斯坦国的一部分。当时由埃胡德•巴拉克（目前担任内塔尼亚胡政府的国防部长）领导的以色列工党政府接受了这一方案，不过却遭到巴民族权力机构主席亚西尔•阿拉法特的拒绝。此后当以色列在阿里埃勒•沙龙的领导下于2005年单方面撤出加沙时，巴以双方却糊里糊涂浪费了数年时光，未能将这一有利机遇发展为全面和平。

With the border question sorted out early, the sting would be drawn from the settlement issue. The Israelis could build on the land that would eventually be theirs. Agreement on borders would make it easier to agree on Jerusalem itself. The Clinton parameters envisaged Palestinian sovereignty on the Haram al-Sharif, where the mosques of Omar and al-Aqsa now stand. That might lead the PA to accept an accord on Palestinian refugees.
如果边境问题能够尽早解决，围绕定居点的困局也会迎刃而解。以色列人就可以在终将成为以色列国土的土地上继续定居点的建设。达成边境协议也会使解决耶路撒冷问题变得更加容易。“克林顿参数”方案赋予巴勒斯坦人对“崇高的圣所”地区（Haram al-Sharif）的主权，奥玛清真寺和阿克萨清真寺都位于这一区域。这样也会促使巴勒斯坦权力机构达成一项关于巴勒斯坦难民的协议。

The lost first decade of the millennium could be redeemed in one year of gutsy negotiating. For Mr Abbas it will require the courage to accept what his still-venerated predecessor rejected. For Mr Netanyahu it will mean dumping some of his coalition partners and perhaps, too, some of his own Likud loyalists. He commands the parliamentary arithmetic to form a coalition with Tzipi Livni’s party, Kadima. She and many in her circle were raised in the Likud. They moved with Mr Sharon to an acceptance of the Palestinians’ right to statehood. Their secession shattered the Likud. Mr Netanyahu painstakingly rebuilt it. It will be hard for him to split the party again. But there may be no other way.
新世纪头十年的损失或许可以通过充满魄力谈判在一年内得到挽回。对阿巴斯而言，他需有足够的勇气去接受曾经被他依旧敬重的前任拒绝过的方案。而对于内塔尼亚胡，则意味着要背弃联合政府中的一些盟友，甚至是部分忠实的利库德集团成员。为了保持议会的多数，内塔尼亚胡与齐皮•利夫尼所领导的前进党组成了联合政府。利维尼和党内的很多成员都出身于利库德集团。由于认可巴勒斯坦人的建国权利，他们跟随沙龙脱离了利库德集团，利库德集团也因此遭受毁灭性打击。内塔尼亚胡煞费苦心才使利库德集团得到以恢复，因此他会极力避免分离的再次发生。但和谈或许并没有其他选择。

David Landau: Israel correspondent, The Economist
from The World In 2011 PRINT EDITION