藏族舞蹈吉祥谣:What if Gadhafi's regime survives?

来源:百度文库 编辑:九乡新闻网 时间:2024/03/29 20:09:51

What if Gadhafi's regime survives?



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US top government officials and ordinary newspaper pundits are debating whether the U.S. and its allies should intervene militarily against Moammar Gadhafi, perhaps by establishing a no-fly zone. This is the wrong question. The right question is: What happens if Gadhafi holds on?


That possibility no longer seems remote, as the colonel and his loyalists keep a firm grip on Tripoli and start inflicting military reversals on the rebels. A society as brutalized as Libya's will retain a powerful fear of its dictator even in his hour of weakness. Many Libyans will recall how Saddam Hussein crushed the Kurdish and Shiite uprisings of March 1991. They will recall, too, that the first Bush administration—which included then-deputy national security adviser and current no-fly zone skeptic Bob Gates—stood aside as Saddam viciously struck back.

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What happened next is one of the darkest chapters of recent memory. An estimated 60,000 Iraqis, perhaps more, were killed in the revolt. Two million fled the country. The Iraqi people had to endure another dozen years under Saddam. The U.S. spent billions enforcing a no-fly zone that was a case of too little, too late. The war that ultimately toppled Saddam's regime exacted another huge toll in lives, including those of more than 4,000 Americans.


Looking back, it's worth noting that all of this may have been avoided if only the U.S. had forbidden Saddam from flying his helicopter gunships, which proved decisive in turning the tide of revolt. So why won't President Obama run the comparatively minor risk of doing similarly in Libya? Does he think he needs the U.N.'s permission? Sadly, he probably does.

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Should the conflict in Libya turn into a protracted civil war, it will mean more killing, more refugees, and even higher energy prices. And should Gadhafi's counteroffensive begin to show results, previously emboldened Libyan rebels could start to panic, and their reversals could quickly turn into a general rout.


What happens then? Will the U.S. enforce a no-fly zone in the event that Gadhafi's air force begins to kill Libyan civilians en masse, as Saddam did 20 years ago? It would be politically difficult—and morally objectionable—not to do so. But what is the point of refusing to intercede now, when it could help seal Gadhafi's fate, if you remain prepared to intercede later, when at most it will slightly blunt the edge of his vengeful sword?


US President Obama might also consider that if Gadhafi survives, it will send a clear message to other Middle East dictators that it pays to be pitiless.

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That's not exactly a lesson the administration should want to impart, however unwittingly. In a season of Muslim turbulence and revolt, the optimal outcome for the U.S. would be one in which anti-American dictatorships get the boot while pro-American ones get serious about real reform. At a minimum, one would hope that if we're going to lose some traditional allies we might also stand to gain some new friends.


Yet the outcome we risk if Gadhafi survives is the very opposite of the optimal: Friends lost, enemies maintained, and new regimes left to wonder just what, exactly, are the benefits of an alliance with a diffident America.

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Nor is that the worst of it. Iraq's Shiites did not soon forgive what they saw as America's gratuitous betrayal after George H.W. Bush had urged them to "take matters into their own hands." Today's Egyptians aren't impressed by the Obama administration's see-which-side-comes-out-on-top performance during their own uprising. What will Libya's people say of a U.S. that abandons them to a cruel fate? And what message does that send to the region's potentially most consequential opposition movement, Iran's still-defiant Greens? Then again, they already know of what stuff this president is—or rather isn't—made of.

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It remains possible, even likely, that Libya's rebels will again seize the initiative and treat the Gadhafi family to the fate they so richly deserve. No doubt that's the outcome for which the administration is keeping its fingers crossed, on the theory that Libyans will be better served in the long run if they needn't share the credit for their own liberation. There's some truth to that.


But also true is that at the moment when more than just the future of Libya and the safety of its people lies in the balance, Mr. Obama has left things to chance.

The core of American strategy and value tells them always being side with winners. US will not make its decision until it sees clearly who is going to take the triumph. He thinks he's lucky. What's the plan if he isn't?