九乡新闻网魔电无限金钱:7 things to worry about in 2012
来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/04/29 12:23:01
7 things to worry about in 2012
October 11, 2011, 12:45 PMBank of America Merrill Lynch has identified seven “tail risks” for investors to bear in mind for 2012
“Though each of these is a low probability event – generally a tail risk is considered a 1-in-10 chance – they nevertheless could have an outsized impact on portfolios.”
The risks:
1. The Fed hikes US GDP growth snaps higher in 2012 causing the Fed to tighten.
2. Social unrest Rising social unrest raises equity risk premiums and reduces economic growth.
3. China hard landing The world’s engine of growth goes into a deep recession driven by a real estate bust.
4. Global debt default Debt burdens in the US, Europe and Japan cause a global “buyer’s strike” which induces falling prices for goods and assets.
5. Trade war The West fights recession with protectionism, the East responds with capital controls, and a global trade war begins.
6. “Generation ETF” underperforms Active managers outperform ETF investors as correlation and volatility subside.
7. Best of Breed bubble Credit booms, bubbles and busts always engender a massive policy response, which more often than not causes a new bubble to emerge.
-Tom Bemis