九乡新闻网高端医疗服务在中国:怎样做空中国
来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/04/27 23:33:09
2011年 07月 04日 09:09怎样做空中国
评论(88)
要是中国经济急剧放缓，投资者可以做怎样的准备？
中国房地产市场的健康状况、北京能不能控制通货膨胀以及政府债务的真实水平，正引起越来越多的怀疑。中央政府上周披露，地方政府欠债相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的四分之一。很难想象这些债务中有很大一部分不会沦为坏账。
Agence-France Presse中国的一处建筑工地上，工人们正在吃午餐。因为这一切，怎样做空中国，正在吸引新的关注。
依靠做空中国获利的热门途径已经人满为患。一些对冲基金借入赴美上市中国公司（其中很多都存在审计或治理问题）的股票以图在这些股票后来的下跌过程中获利，结果在近几个月赚了大钱。
一些人说，这些容易赚到的钱已经被人赚了。更重要的是，做空这些股票利用的概念实际上不是中国经济的整体状况，而是具体的公司危机。
一部分投资者正在做空那些投资于中国沪深A股市场的交易所交易基金。A股市场以人民币计价，受到严格限制。做空的具体办法是借入证券卖出，利用其跌势获利。但作为这些证券基础资产的A股已经受到冲击，主要股指较2009年8月份达到的金融危机以来最高水平下跌将近20%。空头做空赴港上市中国公司股票更加便利，其中一部分人已经针对恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)或个股建立了空头头寸，但这个市场的中国股也已经被压得很低。
不过要利用中国经济崩溃获利还有其他办法。虽然股市不振，但货币和大宗商品行情取决于中国对全球需求的巨大影响力，它们的价格仍然处在显示一切平安的水平。
和全球金融危机时期的低点相比，澳大利亚元对美元飙升75%，这在很大程度上是因为中国对澳大利亚铁矿石、煤炭、天然气和其他资源的需求。在大宗商品价格已经回落的时候，澳元仍然出人意料地接近于历史最高水平。
加拿大元也可以成为利用中国经济放缓获利的具体途径，只是这个途径不那么显眼。如果对美国和欧洲持悲观态度，因此预计对中国出口产品需求将会疲软，做空加元就更为适合。
和澳大利亚一样，如果中国的石油、天然气和矿产消耗量减少，加拿大也会承受痛苦。如果中国的进出口双双下降，那么它用来购买加拿大国债的资金也会减少。目前对美元仍较金融危机低点高出27%左右的加元，可能就会因此受到打压。
看空加元比看空澳元的代价要更低一些，原因之一是加拿大的利率没那么高，利率是为掉期和期权等货币押注活动定价的主要成本因素。
还有铜。中国是这种红色金属的头号消费大国，建筑物中的管道和电线都需要用到铜。铜也因此成为中国房地产市场的一个指标。较为疲弱的中国采购经理人指数发布后，伦敦三个月期铜价格上周五最低跌至每吨9,345美元，低于周四的每吨9,429美元。
但目前的铜价仍是2008年末的两倍多。花旗集团(Citigroup)驻新加坡策略师佩雷特-格林(Patrick Perret-Green)指出，上一次中国采购经理人指数处在目前的低迷水平50左右时，铜价更接近每吨7,000美元。
做空中国的另一种途经是押注中国经济减速会波及企业界。经营伦敦资产管理公司Eclectica Asset Management的亨得利(HughHendry)建立了不同寻常的做空中国的头寸，大举买进了那些他认为会受到日本向中国出口减速影响的日本公司的信用违约掉期。中国目前是日本最大的贸易伙伴。
胜算最小的也许是押注人民币下跌。押注人民币下跌的交易最近也吸引了一些人，他们愿意挑战认为人民币兑美元只会升值的大众看法。银行业人士说，对冲基金正在以低廉的成本建立做空人民币的头寸，如果人民币突然下跌，这些头寸将获得暴利。但人民币目前不可自由兑换，中国政府在必要时有很大的余地来控制汇率，其外汇储备高达3万亿美元，相当于中国GDP的51%。不难想象，即使中国经济受挫，人民币汇率也很可能不会受到影响。正如一位银行业人士说的，押注人民币下跌的成本很低，这也是有原因的。
过去一年多来，看空中国的人不断增多。对冲基金经理查诺斯(James Chanos)去年初因质疑中国经济基本面遭到公开抨击，他断言中国处于受信贷推动的房产泡沫中。近来有更多的人同意他的观点。
他们的观点可能并非完全正确。有关中国的负面传闻可能最终只是暂时的，做空中国来获利的机遇也许已经过去。
其实，有些分析师坚持认为，中国股票价格已经被压得很低，现在是触底反弹的时候了。苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank ofScotland)预测，摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数(MSCI-Chinaindex)2012年可大涨至多80%，因为在明年中国领导班子换届之前，北京方面会转向促进经济增长的政策。
中国曾在过去多次证明那些唱空中国的人错了。而即使中国的状况真的变坏，其过程可能也比一些人所认为的要长。投资者的看法即便是正确的，但如果时机不对，在坐等自己的看法得到证实的过程中，可能就会赔掉很多钱。
跟长期看好中国的人一样，看空者或许应该培养出一种技能：耐心。
China Bears Have Tools, Need Patience
How can investors prepare themselves for a major Chinese slowdown?
Doubtsare mounting about the health of China's property market, Beijing'sability to control inflation and the true extent of government debt.Last week, the central government disclosed that local governments oweddebts equal to a quarter of gross domestic product. It's hard to imaginea large chunk of those borrowings won't turn sour.
All that means bets against China are attracting new attention.
Popularplaces to profit from a negative bet on China have gotten crowded. Inrecent months, some hedge funds have earned big money after borrowingshares of U.S.-listed Chinese companies, many with auditing orgovernance problems, in order to profit from their subsequent fall.
Severalsay the easy money has been made. More to the point, these stock betsaren't really a play on China's broader economic health but rather onspecific company woes.
Some investors are shortingexchange-traded funds that invest in China's heavily restrictedyuan-denominated 'A-share' markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen─that is,selling borrowed securities to profit from their fall. But theunderlying A shares are battered, with the main index off nearly 20% itspost-financial crisis highs of August 2009. Hong Kong-listed Chineseshares are more accessible for shorts, some of whom have taken negativepositions on the Hang Seng Index or individual stocks, but the marketthere for Chinese shares is also pretty beaten down.
However,there are other ways to profit from a China implosion. While stocks havesagged, currencies and commodities subject to the country's hugeinfluence over global demand are still hovering at levels that suggestnothing is wrong.
The Australian dollar has soared 75% againstthe U.S. dollar from lows set during the global financial crisis, inlarge part because of Chinese demand for the country's iron ore, coal,gas and other resources. It remains surprisingly close to its all-timehighs, even as commodity prices have fallen back.
The Canadiandollar could be another, less obvious way to play a Chinese slowdown,particularly for those feeling gloomy about the U.S. and Europe andtherefore expect weak demand for Chinese exports.
Like Australia,Canada would suffer from a drop in Chinese consumption of its oil, gasand minerals. If China sees both exports and imports fall off, it willhave less money to buy Canadian government debt, too. That could depressthe Canadian dollar, which still trades about 27% above itsfinancial-crisis lows against the U.S. dollar.
A bet against theCanadian dollar is a bit cheaper than one against its Australiancounterpart, in part because Canadian interest rates aren't as high, amain cost factor in pricing currency bets such as swaps and options.
Thenthere's copper. China is the No. 1 consumer of the red metal, which isused for pipes and wires in buildings. That makes it a proxy play onChinese real-estate. On Friday, three-month copper prices fell as low as$9,345 a metric ton in London, down from $9,429 a ton Thursday, afterthe release of a soft Chinese purchasing managers index.
Butprices remain more than double their levels from late 2008. And the lasttime China's Purchasing Managers Index was at current sluggish levelsof around 50, copper was closer to $7,000 a ton, notes PatrickPerret-Green, a Singapore-based strategist for Citigroup.
Betsthat rely on a China slowdown rippling through the corporate world areanother avenue. Hugh Hendry, who runs Eclectica Asset Management inLondon, has taken an unusual short-China position by buying upcredit-default swaps on Japanese companies he believes would suffer froma slowdown in exports to China, now Japan's biggest trading partner.
Perhapsthe longest shot is betting on a fall in China's currency. That playhas recently picked up some fans willing to defy the conventional wisdomthat the yuan can only go up against the dollar. Bankers say hedgefunds are buying cheap positions that will score huge profits if theyuan suddenly falls. But China's currency isn't freely convertible, andBeijing retains a lot of scope─ $3 trillion in currency reserves, or theequivalent of 51% of GDP─to manipulate the exchange rate if it needsto. It's easy to envision a scenario where China's economy suffers whilethe currency doesn't budge. As one banker put it, these bets are cheapto make for a reason.
China shorts have been on a roll for over ayear now. Hedge-fund manager James Chanos took a public beating earlylast year for challenging China's economic fundamentals, and assertingthat it was in the midst of a 'credit-driven property bubble.' There's alot more people agreeing with him these days.
They may not allbe right. The negative China buzz could turn out to be a passing phase,and the chance to make money as a short has passed.
Indeed, someanalysts argue that Chinese stocks are so beaten down that it's time fora rally. Royal Bank of Scotland predicts the MSCI-China index couldjump as much as 80% through 2012 as Beijing shifts toward growthpolicies ahead of a change in China's leadership next year.
Chinaproved naysayers wrong many times in the past. Even if things turn bad,it may take longer to happen than some might think. An investor who'sright at the wrong time could lose a lot of money waiting to bevindicated.
Like long-term China bulls, the shorts may need to acquire a knack for patience.
Peter Stein
评论(88)
要是中国经济急剧放缓，投资者可以做怎样的准备？
中国房地产市场的健康状况、北京能不能控制通货膨胀以及政府债务的真实水平，正引起越来越多的怀疑。中央政府上周披露，地方政府欠债相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的四分之一。很难想象这些债务中有很大一部分不会沦为坏账。
Agence-France Presse中国的一处建筑工地上，工人们正在吃午餐。因为这一切，怎样做空中国，正在吸引新的关注。依靠做空中国获利的热门途径已经人满为患。一些对冲基金借入赴美上市中国公司（其中很多都存在审计或治理问题）的股票以图在这些股票后来的下跌过程中获利，结果在近几个月赚了大钱。
一些人说，这些容易赚到的钱已经被人赚了。更重要的是，做空这些股票利用的概念实际上不是中国经济的整体状况，而是具体的公司危机。
一部分投资者正在做空那些投资于中国沪深A股市场的交易所交易基金。A股市场以人民币计价，受到严格限制。做空的具体办法是借入证券卖出，利用其跌势获利。但作为这些证券基础资产的A股已经受到冲击，主要股指较2009年8月份达到的金融危机以来最高水平下跌将近20%。空头做空赴港上市中国公司股票更加便利，其中一部分人已经针对恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)或个股建立了空头头寸，但这个市场的中国股也已经被压得很低。
不过要利用中国经济崩溃获利还有其他办法。虽然股市不振，但货币和大宗商品行情取决于中国对全球需求的巨大影响力，它们的价格仍然处在显示一切平安的水平。
和全球金融危机时期的低点相比，澳大利亚元对美元飙升75%，这在很大程度上是因为中国对澳大利亚铁矿石、煤炭、天然气和其他资源的需求。在大宗商品价格已经回落的时候，澳元仍然出人意料地接近于历史最高水平。
加拿大元也可以成为利用中国经济放缓获利的具体途径，只是这个途径不那么显眼。如果对美国和欧洲持悲观态度，因此预计对中国出口产品需求将会疲软，做空加元就更为适合。
和澳大利亚一样，如果中国的石油、天然气和矿产消耗量减少，加拿大也会承受痛苦。如果中国的进出口双双下降，那么它用来购买加拿大国债的资金也会减少。目前对美元仍较金融危机低点高出27%左右的加元，可能就会因此受到打压。
看空加元比看空澳元的代价要更低一些，原因之一是加拿大的利率没那么高，利率是为掉期和期权等货币押注活动定价的主要成本因素。
还有铜。中国是这种红色金属的头号消费大国，建筑物中的管道和电线都需要用到铜。铜也因此成为中国房地产市场的一个指标。较为疲弱的中国采购经理人指数发布后，伦敦三个月期铜价格上周五最低跌至每吨9,345美元，低于周四的每吨9,429美元。
但目前的铜价仍是2008年末的两倍多。花旗集团(Citigroup)驻新加坡策略师佩雷特-格林(Patrick Perret-Green)指出，上一次中国采购经理人指数处在目前的低迷水平50左右时，铜价更接近每吨7,000美元。
做空中国的另一种途经是押注中国经济减速会波及企业界。经营伦敦资产管理公司Eclectica Asset Management的亨得利(HughHendry)建立了不同寻常的做空中国的头寸，大举买进了那些他认为会受到日本向中国出口减速影响的日本公司的信用违约掉期。中国目前是日本最大的贸易伙伴。
胜算最小的也许是押注人民币下跌。押注人民币下跌的交易最近也吸引了一些人，他们愿意挑战认为人民币兑美元只会升值的大众看法。银行业人士说，对冲基金正在以低廉的成本建立做空人民币的头寸，如果人民币突然下跌，这些头寸将获得暴利。但人民币目前不可自由兑换，中国政府在必要时有很大的余地来控制汇率，其外汇储备高达3万亿美元，相当于中国GDP的51%。不难想象，即使中国经济受挫，人民币汇率也很可能不会受到影响。正如一位银行业人士说的，押注人民币下跌的成本很低，这也是有原因的。
过去一年多来，看空中国的人不断增多。对冲基金经理查诺斯(James Chanos)去年初因质疑中国经济基本面遭到公开抨击，他断言中国处于受信贷推动的房产泡沫中。近来有更多的人同意他的观点。
他们的观点可能并非完全正确。有关中国的负面传闻可能最终只是暂时的，做空中国来获利的机遇也许已经过去。
其实，有些分析师坚持认为，中国股票价格已经被压得很低，现在是触底反弹的时候了。苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank ofScotland)预测，摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数(MSCI-Chinaindex)2012年可大涨至多80%，因为在明年中国领导班子换届之前，北京方面会转向促进经济增长的政策。
中国曾在过去多次证明那些唱空中国的人错了。而即使中国的状况真的变坏，其过程可能也比一些人所认为的要长。投资者的看法即便是正确的，但如果时机不对，在坐等自己的看法得到证实的过程中，可能就会赔掉很多钱。
跟长期看好中国的人一样，看空者或许应该培养出一种技能：耐心。
China Bears Have Tools, Need Patience
How can investors prepare themselves for a major Chinese slowdown?
Doubtsare mounting about the health of China's property market, Beijing'sability to control inflation and the true extent of government debt.Last week, the central government disclosed that local governments oweddebts equal to a quarter of gross domestic product. It's hard to imaginea large chunk of those borrowings won't turn sour.
All that means bets against China are attracting new attention.
Popularplaces to profit from a negative bet on China have gotten crowded. Inrecent months, some hedge funds have earned big money after borrowingshares of U.S.-listed Chinese companies, many with auditing orgovernance problems, in order to profit from their subsequent fall.
Severalsay the easy money has been made. More to the point, these stock betsaren't really a play on China's broader economic health but rather onspecific company woes.
Some investors are shortingexchange-traded funds that invest in China's heavily restrictedyuan-denominated 'A-share' markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen─that is,selling borrowed securities to profit from their fall. But theunderlying A shares are battered, with the main index off nearly 20% itspost-financial crisis highs of August 2009. Hong Kong-listed Chineseshares are more accessible for shorts, some of whom have taken negativepositions on the Hang Seng Index or individual stocks, but the marketthere for Chinese shares is also pretty beaten down.
However,there are other ways to profit from a China implosion. While stocks havesagged, currencies and commodities subject to the country's hugeinfluence over global demand are still hovering at levels that suggestnothing is wrong.
The Australian dollar has soared 75% againstthe U.S. dollar from lows set during the global financial crisis, inlarge part because of Chinese demand for the country's iron ore, coal,gas and other resources. It remains surprisingly close to its all-timehighs, even as commodity prices have fallen back.
The Canadiandollar could be another, less obvious way to play a Chinese slowdown,particularly for those feeling gloomy about the U.S. and Europe andtherefore expect weak demand for Chinese exports.
Like Australia,Canada would suffer from a drop in Chinese consumption of its oil, gasand minerals. If China sees both exports and imports fall off, it willhave less money to buy Canadian government debt, too. That could depressthe Canadian dollar, which still trades about 27% above itsfinancial-crisis lows against the U.S. dollar.
A bet against theCanadian dollar is a bit cheaper than one against its Australiancounterpart, in part because Canadian interest rates aren't as high, amain cost factor in pricing currency bets such as swaps and options.
Thenthere's copper. China is the No. 1 consumer of the red metal, which isused for pipes and wires in buildings. That makes it a proxy play onChinese real-estate. On Friday, three-month copper prices fell as low as$9,345 a metric ton in London, down from $9,429 a ton Thursday, afterthe release of a soft Chinese purchasing managers index.
Butprices remain more than double their levels from late 2008. And the lasttime China's Purchasing Managers Index was at current sluggish levelsof around 50, copper was closer to $7,000 a ton, notes PatrickPerret-Green, a Singapore-based strategist for Citigroup.
Betsthat rely on a China slowdown rippling through the corporate world areanother avenue. Hugh Hendry, who runs Eclectica Asset Management inLondon, has taken an unusual short-China position by buying upcredit-default swaps on Japanese companies he believes would suffer froma slowdown in exports to China, now Japan's biggest trading partner.
Perhapsthe longest shot is betting on a fall in China's currency. That playhas recently picked up some fans willing to defy the conventional wisdomthat the yuan can only go up against the dollar. Bankers say hedgefunds are buying cheap positions that will score huge profits if theyuan suddenly falls. But China's currency isn't freely convertible, andBeijing retains a lot of scope─ $3 trillion in currency reserves, or theequivalent of 51% of GDP─to manipulate the exchange rate if it needsto. It's easy to envision a scenario where China's economy suffers whilethe currency doesn't budge. As one banker put it, these bets are cheapto make for a reason.
China shorts have been on a roll for over ayear now. Hedge-fund manager James Chanos took a public beating earlylast year for challenging China's economic fundamentals, and assertingthat it was in the midst of a 'credit-driven property bubble.' There's alot more people agreeing with him these days.
They may not allbe right. The negative China buzz could turn out to be a passing phase,and the chance to make money as a short has passed.
Indeed, someanalysts argue that Chinese stocks are so beaten down that it's time fora rally. Royal Bank of Scotland predicts the MSCI-China index couldjump as much as 80% through 2012 as Beijing shifts toward growthpolicies ahead of a change in China's leadership next year.
Chinaproved naysayers wrong many times in the past. Even if things turn bad,it may take longer to happen than some might think. An investor who'sright at the wrong time could lose a lot of money waiting to bevindicated.
Like long-term China bulls, the shorts may need to acquire a knack for patience.
Peter Stein