饥荒修改冰箱容量:Japan News and Japanese -2

Tsunami clears way for solar-powered Japan
By Masayoshi Son

But is this really true? According to figures listed on an application for approval of the nuclear power plant installation, its unit cost is 15-20 yen. This is the actual data; the pre-accident cost.

So then what happens if we add the cost of the accident? TEPCO obviously should pay this, but any cost beyond its capacity will fall to the government; in other words, tax. If we include the full cost of the accident, nuclear power may in fact be the most expensive form of energy.

As this example illustrates, the true cost of nuclear power should include local subsidies, nuclear waste processing costs and

accident coverage. We need to reevaluate the legitimacy of "five to six yen", which was the initial hook, but now seems somewhat off.

Moreover, 15 yen was a figure derived from commodity prices 30 years ago, so I wonder what the figure per kilowatt-hour (kWh) would be for a new nuclear power plant today.

The number 3 reactor at Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant in Finland was slated for an initial construction budget of 350 billion yen, but the work was continually delayed as safety standards continued to rise, and has already cost 1.5 trillion yen despite still having no schedule for completion.

Accounting only for capital investment and without fuel or operating costs, the plant already costs 14 yen/kWh, and fuel and operating costs would add to this. The world no longer makes new nuclear power plants because the truth is, as this case shows, they come at a huge cost.

A graph shows some surprising data. Power production costs for solar and nuclear energy in the United States crossed over each other in 2010 (Figure 2).



I, like many others, had thought that natural energy was ideal but expensive, that solar power would not work in the rain or at night, and nuclear energy could mass-produce and was inexpensive. But a crossover of the two actually occurred last year, with all the rain and night concerns accounted for and looking only at production cost during operation. Looking at this case makes us think that we must shift our energy policy toward realizing a society in which every citizen can feel safe.

Government policy changes society
Power production using natural energy is currently increasing at a dramatic level in Europe, the United States and China. The key to this increase is government policy. In Germany, the feed-in tariff policy began in 2000, allowing any electricity producer to have its product purchased by power companies at 61 yen/kWh for the next 20-25 years. A 2004 revision of the policy raised the purchase price to 65 yen. The mere act of the government determining such policy sparked competition among private companies and prompted an explosive spread of solar power generation. (Figure 3) 



In Europe, countries like Germany, France and Spain have set a target of supplying 20%-30% of their energy from natural sources by the year 2020, which people now believe could be accomplished faster than anticipated. The latest data confirms that countries such as Germany enforce the purchase of all produced power at 40-60 yen/kWh for 20-25 years.
Japan is currently discussing purchase of surplus power for 10 years. I truly believe that we should set figures at the European level or American level of purchasing all produced power at 40 yen/kWh for 20 years to allow private businesses to compete and develop a market. Otherwise, businesses will not think of producing power since the returns will not match their investment.
Looking at trends of the next 10 and 20 years brings an expectation that fossil fuel prices will rise. On the other hand, costs are declining for natural energy, owing to effects of mass production and technological innovation as seen in the US. It is time for our government to draw up a grand vision.

The average monthly electricity bill of a common household is about 8,000 yen, and if we account for the 40 yen for 20 years purchase price in this, the bill temporarily rises by about 500 yen. But this buys us safety and assurance. Fossil fuel prices will continue to rise, and nuclear power plants will further involve accident costs. There is no need for us to resort to more dangerous and expensive options.

At the same time, we must reduce carbon dioxide. For us to head toward a clean and more inexpensive option over the long term, are we all not capable of facing up to the responsibility and bearing the temporary added burden of 500 yen? The government should be acquiring this consensus from its citizens.

This requires no large-scale financial investments from the government. All the government needs to do is take the solar power purchasing policy it is already discussing one step further and simply add a line, "Purchase of all produced power at 40 yen for 20 years" or shift the policy in that direction. Recall the US case given above: is it not sheer nonsense to cling to nuclear power when it will recede in the future instead of taking the path that is already crossing over and which will definitely lead to cost reduction?

Feeling that I should produce action instead of just talk, I established a Natural Energy Foundation to bear my share of responsibility as a citizen and decided to personally input one billion yen. I am hoping that the people of the world gather their wisdom here to present their research findings and give proposals for government policies. It is a dream of mine to see the foundation trigger discussion and play a role in offering practical alternatives to nuclear energy.

The sun will rise again
Solar, solar thermal, wind, geothermal, biomass, oceanic energy and other blessings of nature can be used for thousands of years without contaminating the Earth. These are forms of energy that coexist with nature without destroying it.

I have one suggestion to make concerning a vision on recovering from the quake. It is known that land salinized by the tsunami cannot be cultivated for the next decade. How much money would it take to "recover" such farmland and create taller embankments? What future do we see there? Can the government instead take the lead in creating an "East Japan Solar Belt" as an area for producing new energy for the future?

Ports of the past could gain new life as ports of solar and wind energy. Such a recovery project would create huge job opportunities for the region's people, and Japanese manufacturers already have the number-one solar technology in the world. Instead of exporting it, we should use it domestically to create the world's largest solar belt.

In this way, the sun of 21st century Japan would rise again rather than continuing to set. And with safety and assurance, people could live on this land for many thousands of years. I believe that our nation can come up with such a hopeful vision.

Son Masayoshi is chairman and chief executive of Softbank Corp and representative director and president of Yahoo Japan Corp. Born 1957 in Saga Prefecture. Graduated from the Economics Department of the University of California, Berkeley. Founded Softbank Corp Japan in 1981. Established the Broadband Association in 2003 and assumed the role of representative chairman.

(Translated from "Higashi-nihon ni sora-a beruto chitai wo: Taiyo no minato, kaze no minato de nihon ha yomigaeru," Sekai, June 2011, pp 44–51, by Son Masayoshi. Japan Echo Web No. 7 August-September 2011

Note
1. Andrew DeWit writes: The fight over Japan's energy options is not at all ended. The nuclear village's effort to portray Fukushima as merely a setback has failed in the face of the facts, of course. Among recent surveys results, we find those that indicate as much as 100,000,000 cubic meters of Fukushima's topsoil has been irradiated by the March 2011 nuclear power meltdowns, an enormous quantity whose disposal, both its logistics and its cost, simply staggers the mind. In the meantime, the Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI) is in a struggle with the financial institutions that lent trillions of yen to nuclear power station operator Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) and now want the state to ensure that they are completely reimbursed. The nuclear village and its hired guns in the academic and administrative and political sectors have worked together to craft a mechanism through which compensation will almost inevitably be torn out of the public budget as well as the pockets of utility ratepayers. The ricketiness of the scheme suggests it can only hold together if the 10 regional monopolized utilities and their risky nuclear assets are maintained largely as is. It is thus easy to understand why the establishment is furious at Son's effort to apply "creative destruction" to their vested interests in Japan's power markets.

Softbank's role is of course not the only element that is driving Japan so rapidly towards fulfilling its longstanding commitment to be a green leader. Another is the fact that Tohoku was so heavily devastated by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. The rebuild gives Japan the opportunity to rebuild smart, which has become common sense within the committees devising the plans for reconstruction. METI recently released the results of one of its own in-house academic studies showing that global renewable energy and associated infrastructure businesses already reached 30 trillion yen in 2010. The study also projects that the global industry will expand to about 80 trillion yen by 2020. The question of whether Japan plays a leading role in the process remains open.

A smart approach to rebuilding the devastated area could serve as a template for restructuring power markets within Japan. This needs to be done, as the International Energy Association argues, because Japan is balkanized into 10 regional and monopolized utilities that have very little interaction among each other as a power market. Son in fact proposed a 2 trillion yen plan for this kind of "supergrid" at the inauguration of his Japan Renewable Energy Foundation.

The IEA also points to the opportunity for extending this power market throughout the East Asian region, something Son discussed with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak last May as well as formally proposed during his September 12 talk. In short, initial possibilities now exist for a regionwide energy transformation

A few decades on, when the history of this stressful period in Japanese politics and business is written, Son will rank as a leader with vision and courage. By contrast, the costs of the nuclear village will still be burdening public health and public finance.