阿拉善旅游:中国出手稳定市场紧张情绪

2011年 08月 12日 09:44中国出手稳定市场紧张情绪
评论(9)
中国发出的信号表明，它打算发挥更加积极的作用，努力平息国内外市场的混乱。它向银行系统注入现金，并允许受到严格控制的人民币连续第四个交易日走高。

Associated Press周四，一位上海投资者注视着股价显示屏。当天，投资者普遍相信，政府已开始大规模购买股票。这种观点扭转了上海股市的急剧下跌。国内投资者普遍相信，国家社保基金已经开始大规模购买股票。这种观点扭转了上海股市的急剧下跌，并帮助它在经历动荡的交易日之后收盘走高。

在美国和欧洲经济因债务压力走软之际，全球经济比以往任何时候都更加倚重于中国。中国经济仍在强劲增长，中国政府的债务也没有达到破坏性的水平，它能够在危机时期迅速、果断地调动全国资源。中国有着超过3万亿美元的外汇储备，并拥有一些规模位居世界前列的主权财富基金，可以用在世界各个地方。

分析人士说，中国对人民币放松管制、允许它在市场极度波动之时小幅走高，这一点有着重要的意义。人民币升值符合中国自身利益，因为它有助于遏制国内通货膨胀（这是政府工作的重中之重）。而通过鼓励进口、限制出口，升值也有利于世界其他地区。

研究公司龙洲经讯(GaveKal Dragonomics)的分析师写道，这次升值非常鼓舞人心，因为它脱离了历史先例；事实上在国际金融市场紧张时期，北京的初期默认反应一直是像聚光灯下的小鹿一样一动不动，并尽全力阻止汇率升值。但这次不是这样。

龙洲经讯说，这说明北京希望“交朋友”、“影响他人”，并实现其他一些目的。

美国、欧洲等主要贸易伙伴长期要求中国允许人民币升值，从一个方面降低它的巨额贸易顺差。中国7月份贸易顺差为315亿美元，达到两年半以来最高。采取措施减轻贸易失衡，可能会获得很多西方国家的赞赏，并有助于稳定恐慌的市场情绪。

相关阅读美元贬值倒逼人民币加快升值
物价上涨压力助推人民币再创新高
中国央行本周共计向国内货币市场注资700亿元，数额为6月下旬以来最高。此举的目的是在国际市场摇摆不定之际让国内市场保持充裕的流动性。（货币市场是银行用以满足日常流动性需求的银行间交易平台。）

上海一位债券交易员说，这次注资暗示了央行的立场：稳定金融市场是其关键政策目标之一，特别是在海外市场重挫的时候。

上海股市大幅上涨，此前中文报纸《经济观察报》报道说，周二以来全国社保基金投入至少人民币100亿元（合15.6亿美元）买进国内股票。全国社保基金发言人说，她不知道有任何股票买进活动。

上证综合指数盘中一度跌了1.7%，但交易员说，受报纸报道的提振，该指数收盘涨1.3%。

国泰君安证券分析师徐荫辉说，我觉得市场背后有一只无形的手。他说，我没有看到散户和基金经理入市。

其他分析师则对报纸的报道表示怀疑。申银万国证券分析师吴大中（音译）说，如果报道的属实，人民币100亿元远远不够支撑股市，这只是杯水车薪而已。

中国央行将人民币兑美元汇率中间价设定为创历史新低的1美元兑人民币6.3991元，而此前的纪录是周三创下的6.4167元。这就使人民币在场外市场可以以1美元兑6.3938元的价格交易，这是1994年中国实施具有里程碑意义的汇改以来人民币兑美元创下的盘中最高价。

分析师说，中国央行目前愿意让人民币以更快一点的速度升值，以便抑制进口商品的价格，因为货币升值可以帮助降低石油和粮食等重要进口大宗商品的成本，进而控制物价。

由于美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)宣布计划到2013年年中前一直保持超低利率，中国对通货膨胀的担忧加剧。美联储的声明令人担心大量热钱（即短期投机性资金）会涌入中国和其他新兴市场以寻求更高的回报。

中国央行顾问李稻葵表示，中国准备利用巨额存款来帮助负债的西方国家，不过中国希望西方国家能够反过来改变挥霍浪费的作风。

李稻葵在接受采访时说，中国愿意继续买进美国和欧洲国家的国债，但这些国家必须承诺做出长期改变以逆转本国不断下滑的财政状况。

李稻葵说，改革不必马上实施。不必马上减少财政支出。但在相对较长期的改革措施上，必须有能够看得到、摸得到的承诺；改革措施必须能够真正改变这些国家财政状况不断下滑的趋势。

李稻葵是中国央行学术顾问。尽管他在政策上没有决策权，他的话确实暗示出中国高层经济决策者的想法。

China Moves In To Calm Markets' Nerves

China signaled that it intends to take a more active role in trying tocalm chaotic global and domestic markets, pumping cash into its bankingsystem and allowing its tightly controlled currency to climb higher for afourth straight day.

There was a widespread belief amongdomestic investors that the country's state pension fund had startedheavily buying shares. That perception reversed a sharp fall in theShanghai stock market and helped it to close higher in a tumultuoustrading session.

As the U.S. and European economies buckle underthe weight of debt, the global economy is leaning more heavily than everon China. China's economy is still growing strongly and its government,unburdened by crippling debt levels, has been able to act swiftly anddecisively in times of crisis to mobilize the nation's resources. Thecountry has $3 trillion-plus in foreign-exchange reserves and some ofthe largest pools of sovereign wealth that can be deployed around theworld.

Analysts say the fact that Chinese authorities areloosening the reins on the yuan and allowing it to edge higher at a timeof extreme market volatility is significant. A stronger yuan is inChina's own interests, since it helps to curb domestic inflation─thegovernment's overriding priority─but it also helps the rest of the worldby encouraging imports and choking off exports.

'This rise isvery encouraging for it breaks with historical precedents,' wroteanalysts at research house GaveKal Dragonomics 'Indeed, in moments oftensions in international financial markets, Beijing's initial defaultreaction has always been to freeze like a deer in headlights and preventany currency appreciation at all costs. But not this time.'

The research house said this suggests that Beijing wants, among other things, to 'make friends and influence people.'

Chinahas long been under pressure from its major trading partners like theU.S., Europe and others to let its currency appreciate to help reduceits hefty trade surplus, which in July hit a two-and-a-half-year high of$31.5 billion. A move to reduce these trade imbalances could be seen ina favorable light in many Western capitals, and help to stabilizejittery market sentiment.

The central bank this week injected atotal of 70 billion yuan ($10.95 billion) into the domestic money marketthe interbank trading platform that banks rely on to manage theirdaily liquidity needs─its highest level since late June. The move isaimed at keeping the local market flush with funds as confidence onglobal markets wobbles.

'The fund injection signaled the centralbank's stance that stabilizing financial markets is one of its keypolicy targets, especially when overseas markets are tumbling,' said aShanghai bond trader.

Shanghai stocks rallied after a Chinesenewspaper, the Economic Observer, reported that the National SocialSecurity Fund bought at least 10 billion yuan ($1.56 billion) indomestic shares since Tuesday. A fund spokeswoman said she was unawareof any stock purchases.

At one point, Shanghai's main stock indexwas behind by 1.7% but traders said the newspaper report help lift theindex 1.3% by the close of trading.

'I feel there's an invisiblehand behind the market,' said Xu Yinhui, an analyst at Guotai JunanSecurities. 'I don't see retail investors and fund managers puttingmoney into the market,' he said.

Other analysts were skepticalabout the newspaper report. 'If the report is true, 10 billion yuan isfar from enough to support the market. It's a drop in the bucket,' saidWu Dazhong, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities.

The People'sBank of China set the dollar/yuan reference exchange rate, or centralparity rate, at a fresh record low of 6.3991, against 6.4167 onWednesday, the previous record. That allowed the yuan to trade on theover-the-counter market at 6.3938 to the dollar, its strongest intradaylevel since China's landmark currency reform in 1994.

Analystssay the central bank is now willing to let the yuan appreciate at aslightly faster pace to hold down prices of imported goods as that wouldhelp reduce costs of key imported commodities such as oil and grainsand in turn keep a lid on consumer prices.

China's fears overinflation have increased as a result of the U.S. Federal Reserve'sannouncement that it intends to keep ultra-low interest rates in placeuntil mid -2013. That has raised concerns of a wave of 'hotmoney'─short-term speculative funds─flowing into China and otheremerging markets in the quest for better returns.

An adviser tothe People's Bank of China, Li Daokui, suggested that China is preparedto use its vast savings to help indebted Western countries, but inreturn it expects a change in their profligate ways.

In aninterview, Mr. Li said that China is willing to keep buying thesovereign debt of the U.S. and European nations, but those countriesmust commit to long-term revisions to 'revert the declining fiscal trendof these countries.'

'The reforms don't have to be implementedimmediately. It is not necessary to immediately reduce fiscalexpenditures. But there must be visible, tangible commitments for reformmeasures in the relatively long term that can really alter thedeclining trend in these countries' fiscal situation,' Mr. Li said.

Mr.Li is an academic adviser to the central bank. While he has noauthority over policy, his comments do give an indication as to thethinking of China's top economic policy makers.

William Kazer / Andrew Browne