九乡新闻网贸易三角形图形解释:Taiwan, a ticking time bomb - Focus discussio...
来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/04/19 02:29:59
Taiwan, a ticking time bomb
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Since the election of Ma Ying-jeou as Taiwan’s president in 2008, tensions between Taiwan and Chinese mainland have faded dramatically.
Over the past three years, Beijing and Taiwan have signed agreements establishing regularly scheduled commercial airline routes, improving procedures for tourist visits from the mainland, and most significant, creating the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement. The last measure establishes the basis for a Taiwan-mainland free trade community.
In addition to these important economic measures, a political dialogue that had been on hold since the late 1990s has resumed. Beijing also no longer seeks to entice the handful of countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan to sever those relations.
Washington welcomes the easing of tensions and is relieved about Ma’s conciliatory approach to dealing with the mainland. From the standpoint of U.S. officials, the current status quo is nearly ideal. Taiwan maintains its de facto independence, thus keeping Beijing from controlling the island and being able to project its military power out into the Pacific, but avoids engaging in the kinds of provocations. Provocations greatly increase the risk of a military confrontation that would likely involve the United States.
Washington’s sense of relief is understandable and to some extent justified. However, the temporary easing of tensions between Taiwan and Beijing needs to be seen as just that: temporary. Beijing still insists that Taiwan someday accept political reunification with the mainland.
When the United States invaded Iraq, General David Petraeus famously posed the question: “Tell me how this ends.” A similar question ought to be asked about the Taiwan issue: “Tell me how this ends peacefully.”
The various scenarios for a peaceful outcome do not inspire optimism. One theoretical possibility is that Beijing ultimately accepts Taiwan’s right to self-determination, even if Taiwanese voters choose independence. But the chances of that development are infinitesimally small. Both because of nationalist emotions and strategic calculations, no Chinese government is ever likely to accept the island’s legal separation from the mainland.
Another scenario is that the status quo goes on indefinitely. Washington would certainly prefer that outcome, and it is the course the majority of Taiwanese endorse but that position is not acceptable to Beijing. As China’s military and economic clout grows, the timetable regarding a willingness to tolerate this ambiguous situation is shrinking. The status quo might continue for another decade, perhaps even two decades, but at some point the Chinese government is going to insist on substantive moves toward reunification.
Which brings us to the third scenario for a peaceful resolution: Taiwan capitulates to Beijing’s demands and negotiates a deal based on a version of the Hong Kong model—extensive autonomy but with full acceptance of Beijing’s sovereignty. That is the most likely of the three scenarios, but it is still a long-shot.
Those troubling realizations should temper our sense of relief that the Taiwan issue is not a crisis at the moment. The issue is merely slumbering. None of the scenarios for a peaceful outcome is likely over the long term. And given Washington’s implicit security guarantee to Taiwan, contained in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, that prospect should cause more than a little unease. The Taiwan issue is a ticking time bomb that at some point is almost certain to lead to a confrontation with China, unless the United States rescinds its risky commitment to defend the island. (National Interest)
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