许茹芸吉他谱:为何现在是买入中国股票的时机？ - 财富中文网

 

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    上周晚些时候，我们的Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio对中国股票进行了建仓，这是自去年9月末我们结清中国股票多头仓位以来的首次。中国股市近日受日本危机影响出现下跌，提供了一个我们无法拒绝的买入良机。

    “为何买入中国股票？”有人可能会问，毕竟我们对中国经济前景的预测是增长放缓、通胀加速。要回答这个问题，可能先要回答另外一个问题“应为增长放缓支付什么价格？”

    虽然2011年上半年一些投资者追随中国政府调低了对中国的增长预测，我们倾向于相信对中国的悲观预期已日益反映在了股价中。事实上，我们是2010年初适度看空中国股市的少数投资者之一——从那以来，上证综指已下跌近10%，去年7月5日更是从谷峰跌至谷底，跌幅达26.7%。

    我们对中国的悲观预期已得到印证，因此自然而然，接下来的风险管理任务就是要弄清悲观预期是否已完全反映在股价中，以及股市是否在预示中国经济增长将重现加速。特别是对于后一个问题，有迹象表明，从经济增长角度，中国确实正在进入筑底阶段。

    2月份中国的出口、零售额和货币供应同比增长率均降至多年低点（部分是由于春节的时间点关系）。尽管未来几个月数据有进一步下行可能，但风险回报率几个季度以来首度偏于上行。

    在金融市场方面，我们注意到中国1年期掉期利率（即用固定利率交换7天期回购利率）已脱离2月21日创下的4.04% 高点，本周初降至3.4%。这里传递出的重要信息是中国债券市场的进一步紧缩预期已经减弱。虽然这一水平较之去年8月的1.99%仍处于较高水平，但掉期利率的回落对未来中国经济增长预期仍具积极意义。目前来看，趋势正在向着好的方向变化。

    我们不能忽视通胀对中国股市的影响。在1月25日此轮上涨启动前，中国股票曾遭到抛售，原因是人们担心通胀加速可能导致货币政策大幅收紧。鉴于去年10月末以来中国已进行三次加息和六次上调存款准备金率，众多的紧缩政策靴子已经落下。这为中国的通胀受益股走出强于大盘走势开启了大门。

    如果分析一下各行业在此轮上涨中对上证综指的贡献，也可印证这一点：

    1. 煤炭业（涨1.2%）——能源通胀

    2. 采矿业（涨0.9%）——贵金属通货再膨胀

    3. 化工业（涨0.6%）——能源通胀传导

    4. 银行业（涨0.5%）——收益率曲线变陡

    5. 石油天然气行业（涨0.5%）——能源通胀

    当然，此时买入中国股票并未全无风险。鉴于此轮上涨与通胀加速密切相关，任何大宗商品实时价格的下跌（通过美元走强）都可能对股市带来不利影响。

    但在通缩情景下也可能出现这样的情况，即领涨股从通胀受益股转为消费和工业类股，市场中买盘仍将普遍存在——特别是考虑到很多投资者此前出于紧缩担忧，一直选择了观望。不管怎样，既然中国经济增长放缓和进一步紧缩利空已完全反映在股价中的可能性渐增，未来无论是通胀还是通缩环境，中国股市看来都将受益。

    Late last week, we opened a position in Chinese equities within the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio for the first time since closing a long position in late September of last year. The recent weakness in the wake of Japan's crisis provided a buying opportunity we couldn't resist.

    "Why buy China?" one might ask, given that our outlook for the Chinese economy calls for slowing growth and accelerating inflation. Simply, put, the answer to that question is a question in and of itself: "What price does one pay for slowing growth?"

    While some investors are following the Chinese government in revising down their growth assumptions for China in the first half of 2011, we are inclined to believe the bear case on China is getting increasingly priced in. In fact, we were among the few to be appropriately bearish on Chinese equities in early 2010 -- since then, China's Shanghai Composite Index is down nearly 10%, including a peak-to-trough decline of 26.7% recorded on July 5th.

    We get the bear case on China, so naturally, our next risk management tasks are to figure out whether that's fully priced in and if the market is leading us to a re-acceleration in Chinese growth. Addressing the latter point specifically, there are signs that China is indeed entering a bottoming process, from a growth perspective.

    Year-over-year growth in Chinese exports, retail sales, and money supply all slowed to multi-year lows in February (in part due to the timing of the Lunar New Year). While there may be further downside in the coming months, the risk-reward setup is skewed to the upside for the first time in several quarters.

    From a financial market perspective, we see that China's 12-month interest rate swap contract (which exchanges fixed payments for the seven-day repurchase rate) backed off its high of 4.04% on Feb. 21 to 3.4% earlier this week. The key takeaway here is that the Chinese bond market's expectations for additional tightening have receded. While still elevated relative to the 1.99% we saw last August, the slope of this trend remains positive for Chinese growth expectations on the margin. For now, the trend is moving in the right direction.

    We'd be remiss to not mention the impact of inflation on Chinese equities. Prior to the current rally, which began on Jan. 25, Chinese equities had sold off due to fears that accelerating inflation would lead to aggressive tightening of monetary policy. With three interest rate hikes and six announced reserve requirement hikes since late October, a great deal of tightening may indeed be in the rear view. This opens the door for Chinese stocks that benefit from higher levels of inflation to outperform.

    An analysis of industry contributions to the Shanghai Composite's current rally confirms this:

    1. Coal (+1.2%) – energy inflation

    2. Mining (+0.9%) – precious metals reflation

    3. Chemicals (+0.6%) – energy inflation pass-through

    4. Banks (+0.5%) – widening yield curve

    5. Oil & Gas (+0.5%) – energy inflation

    Buying China here is certainly not without risk, however. Given that the current rally is highly levered to accelerating inflation, any disinflation in real-time commodity prices (via strength in the U.S. Dollar) may prove detrimental.

    What could also happen in a disinflationary scenario, however, is that the outperformance shifts from inflation-positive names to consumer and industrial stocks, keeping a bid under the market at large -- particularly because many investors have likely chosen to remain on the sidelines due to the current round of tightening. At any rate, given that it's increasingly likely that slowing growth and additional tightening may be priced in, Chinese equities look poised to benefit in an inflationary or disinflationary environment.