落魄千金遇上总裁:押注澳门的风险 Macao: getting rich quick

来源:百度文库 编辑:九乡新闻网 时间:2024/03/29 07:49:10
2011年03月02日 13:48 PM

押注澳门的风险Macao: getting rich quick

英国《金融时报》 乔希•诺布尔 报道[7条] 中文 

There’s a pretty simple formula for getting rich quick these days – secure a monopoly on something China has an insatiably appetite for. It can work on a company level – just look at Louis Vuitton and its handbags, Chateau Lafite and its fine red wines, and increasingly, Apple and pretty much everything it sells.

眼下有一种非常简单的快速致富方式,那就是垄断某种中国对其有着无尽欲求的东西。这种方式适用于公司层面——只要看看路易威登(LV)和它的手袋、拉菲酒庄(Chateau Lafite)和它的上等红酒——而苹果(Apple)和它销售的几乎所有产品也日益反映出这一点。

It can also work on a national level. Just look at China’s rush for Mongolian coal. But nowhere is the China boom story more marked than in the former Portuguese colony of Macao.

这种方式同样适用于国家层面——只要看看中国抢购蒙古煤炭的热潮。不过,最能凸显中国繁荣故事的地方,莫过于前葡萄牙殖民地澳门。

Casino revenues in the small city state-within-a-state rose almost 50 per cent y-o-y in February, hitting $2.5bn for a single month. Gaming revenues in the city in the coming year are expected to be 4 times that of Las Vegas. House prices are also galloping ahead, while annual GDP per capita puts Macao – at $72,110 – ahead of Qatar.

这个可谓“国中之国”的小城市,2月份的赌场收入同比增长了近50%,达到25亿美元,创下单月收入纪录。预计未来一年澳门的博彩业收入将达到拉斯维加斯的4倍。澳门的房价也在连级跳,而年人均本地生产总值(GDP)达到7.211万美元,超过了卡塔尔。

And that’s just the start. CLSA, a Hong Kong brokerage, recently increased revenue growth targets on the sector to 30 per cent in 2011. It sees more record months down the line – the next, presumably, in May to coincide with a national holiday in China. CLSA’s call is simple: BUY the sector.

而这仅仅是一个开始。近日,香港券商里昂证券(CLSA)把2011年澳门博彩业收入增长目标上调至30%。它预计,未来澳门博彩业的单月收入还会再创新高——下一个新高大概出现在5月份,恰逢中国的一个全国性假日。里昂证券的建议很简单:买入该行业股票。

A trawl through the stats at the big listed gaming firms can’t help but raise a few eyebrows. Wynn Macau – listed in Hong Kong – trades at 53 times trailing price-to-earnings, and 29.9 times price-to-book. Rival Sands China trades at a punchy 73 times trailing P/E, and 31 times 2011 estimates. Both stocks have gained over 100 per cent since the start of 2010.

在查阅澳门大型上市博彩公司的统计数据后,我们不禁吃了一惊。在香港上市的永利澳门(Wynn Macau),往绩市盈率为53倍,市净率为29.9倍。该公司的竞争对手金沙中国(Sands China),往绩市盈率更是达到令人目眩的73倍,2011年的预期市盈率则达到31倍。自2010年初以来,这两只股票的累计涨幅都超过了100%。

However, CLSA makes the point that consensus earnings estimates are too low.

但里昂证券认为,市场对收益的普遍预期过低。

'We expect 30% revenue growth in 2011 and 25% growth in 2012. The average over the last 8 years has been 31% but there has been a lot of volatility around this number, mainly due to the VIP segment. We believe consensus estimates are closer to 15-20% yoy growth in 2011 and beyond and we have already seen a couple of upgrades. We believe more upgrades should come through in due course.'

“我们预期,2011年的收入增幅将达到30%,2012年将达到25%。过去8年的年均收入增幅为31%,但每年的起伏较大,主要是受贵宾业务影响。我们相信,市场普遍的预期更接近于在2011年及以后同比增长15%至20%。我们已经看到,预期数字上调了两、三次。我们认为适当的时候还应出现更多的上调。”

With earnings growth like that, and seemingly insatiable mainland appetite for gambling, it’s hard to find reasons not to be bullish on Macao. There are some concerns about over-reliance on VIP gamers – and on the junket operators that bring punters in. But surely betting on betting wouldn’t be right without at least a touch of risk.

有了这样的收益增长,再加上中国内地对赌博似乎永无止境的兴趣,我们很难找到理由不看好澳门。澳门博彩业对贵宾赌客以及为赌场招揽赌客的掮客过于依赖,这的确有些令人担忧。但是,想要押注博彩业,又不承担一丁点风险,是不可能的。