China Is Not About to Out-Innovate the U.S.
by James Bessen
Several recent articles argue that China is about to surpass the U.S. in innovation. While China is catching up to the U.S.in manufacturing production, these articles point to the number of new Chinese patent filings as evidence that China is also developing a world class ability to come up with new product ideas. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, NiallFerguson argues that "contrary to the view that China is condemned toremain an assembly line for products 'designed in California,' the country is innovating more. . . . In 2007 China overtook Germany in terms of new patent applications." And The Economist predicts that China will publish more patents next year than any other nation. Thus, writes Sean Silverthorne, "Asia is out-innovating the West, if you go by the number of patents issued."
最近一些文章认为，中国在创新方面将会超越美国。虽然在制造业上中国已经迎头赶上了美国，这些文章将在中国新公布的专利数量认为是中国在新产品发明上逐步拥有世界级能力的证据。在《华尔街日报》工作的Niall Ferguson认为，“中国不再是一个‘在美国加州设计’的产品的组装流水线……在2007年，中国已经在新的专利申请数量上超过了德国。”《经济学家》杂志预测，中国在未来一年中将比其他任何一个国家公布更多的专利。因此，Sean Silverthome这样写道：“如果你只是根据新公布专利的数量来衡量创新能力的话，亚洲的确正在超越西方。”
Really? In fact, a slightly closer look at the patent statistics reveals a very different picture.
事实果真如此吗？实际上，稍微深入地了解专利的统计数据，将为我们揭示一个完全不同的答案。
First, patents are notoriously bad as measures of innovation. Research shows that the majority of innovations are not patented, especially in technologies such as software. But even ignoring these problems, the patent numbers suggest instead just how far China is from the frontier of innovation:
首先，专利是一个误导大众理解创新能力的评判标准。研究显示，绝大多数创新都没有申请专利，尤其是在像软件这样的科技行业。但即便是忽略这些问题，专利数量恰恰说明了中国离创新的前沿还有多远的距离：
Large numbers of the patents issued by China are low value/low quality. The Economist article notes that, thanks to government incentives for filing patents, "a cottage industry has sprung up to produce patents of suspect value." Many are "utility model" patents that require no examination at the patent office (like "design patents" in the US). And researchers at Beihang University find that even among the "invention" patents, which are examined, only about 10% of patent owners pay the modest renewal fees required to keep these patents in force for 20 years. The patents are simply not worth enough to justify paying those fees.
虽然中国公布专利的数量很多，但只有很低的价值或者很差的质量。《经济学家》杂志撰文写道，由于政府鼓励申请专利，“别墅产业已经开始产生投机性价值的专利。”许多只是不需要专利局审查的“实用模型”专利（就像美国的“设计专利”一样）。北京航空航天大学的研究学者发现，即便是在被专利局审查的“发明”专利中，只有10%的专利拥有者会支付适度的续展费以保证专利在20年内有效。这说明很多专利过于简单而不值得缴纳这些的费用。
The majority of patents that have been issued by China are owned by foreign firms seeking to protect their products in the Chinese market, rather than inventions by domestic Chinese firms. In other words, the large number of patents issued by China is more a measure of the value of the Chinese market than a measure of Chinese innovation.
中国公布的大部分专利是由国外公司所拥有，他们是为了在中国市场保护自己的产品而申请的，而不是由中国的本土公司所发明。这就是说，中国公布专利的数量巨大，仅能够用于衡量中国市场的价值，而不能作为中国创新能力的证据。
Conversely, if Chinese inventors were coming up with world class innovations, they would be patenting them in the US, Europe and Japan. But only 0.6% of US utility patents granted in 2009 were from Chinese inventors and owned by Chinese firms or individuals. Very few patented Chinese inventions indeed are at the frontier of world innovation.
相反，如果中国发明家逐步拥有世界级的创新能力，他们将在美国、欧洲和日本申请他们的专利。但是2009年在美国授权的实用专利中仅有0.6%是来自中国，由中国的公司或者个人所拥有。很少有中国专利的发明确实是世界级的创新。
Other Asian countries, notably Japan, have patented much more heavily in the US. Last year 21.5% of U.S. patents went to Japanese inventors, the largest share for foreign inventors. The Japanese share of U.S. patents has held steady at about this level since the late 1980s. Yet even with that performance, no one argues anymore that Japan is about to out-innovate the U.S.
尤其是日本，其他的亚洲国家比中国在美国申请的专利更多。去年美国有21.5%的专利授权给了日本的发明家，他们是最大的国外专利授予国。自从20世纪80年代末开始至今，日本在美国获得授权的专利比例就稳定在这一水平上。所以即便像日本这样的表现，也没有人认为日本的创新能力超过了美国。
China has, of course, come a very long way very quickly. Chinese manufacturing has become world class and there are some signs of improving performance in innovation in China. Yet a careful look at the patent data reveal just how large a gap remains between innovation in the West and in China today. And statistics never lie if you talk to them sweetly.
当然，中国在发展的道路上进步得非常迅速。中国的制造业已经达到了世界级的档次，并且在中国也有一些在创新能力方面提升的信号。不过深入地分析专利数据，我们可以知道中国和西方国家在创新能力上的差距。如果你能够全面正确地看待统计数据，它从来不撒谎。
九乡新闻网