苗疆道事mobi下载:黄金成中国QDII新宠

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2011年01月28日 07:20 AM

黄金成中国QDII新宠

All eyes on China gold fund take-up

RCM Asia Pacific行政总裁 康礼贤 为英国《金融时报》撰稿  

 

Hopes are rising that Chinese investors will rediscover their appetite for investing overseas.

市场燃起希望:中国投资者将重新产生对投资海外的胃口。

They have been fuelled by the recent launch of a gold fund by Lion Fund Management. This invests in about 30 international gold exchange traded funds, according to China Daily, and raised about Rmb3.2bn ($486m) under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor scheme.

让他们胃口大开的是诺安基金(Lion Fund Management)最近推出的一只黄金基金。据《中国日报》(China Daily)报道,该基金根据中国合格境内机构投资者(QDII)计划募集了大约32亿元人民币(合4.86亿美元),投资于约30只全球黄金交易所交易基金(ETF)。

Funds investing internationally under the QDII scheme have had a difficult birth. The system was liberalised in 2006 with the aim of channelling part of China’s $2,000bn domestic savings overseas. Several high profile fund launches gathered several billions of dollars at the time, as retail investors queued to participate in an investment feeding frenzy.

根据QDII计划展开国际投资的基金经历了重重阻碍才艰难诞生。QDII机制于2006年启动,旨在将2万亿美元国内储蓄中的部分资金引向境外。当时高调发行的几只基金募集了数十亿美元资金,散户投资者争先恐后参与到这场投资盛宴之中。

Many of these funds appointed international fund managers to help advise on the underlying investments, which were often established offshore mutual funds. For international managers it looked as if China’s mutual fund market was beginning to deliver on its long-term promise.

其中许多基金都聘用了国际基金公司提供投资咨询,而投资标的通常是已有的离岸共同基金。在国际基金公司看来,中国的共同基金市场似乎已开始履行其长期承诺。

Unfortunately, the height of the demand for QDII funds coincided with the onset of the global financial crisis and many retail investors were left to lick their wounds. As a result, regulators halted the scheme in 2008 and international managers have had little to cheer since.

不幸的是,对QDII基金的需求高峰正好赶上了全球金融危机爆发,许多散户投资者只能默默地舔舐伤口。结果,监管机构于2008年暂停了QDII计划,从那以后国际基金公司也就偃旗息鼓了。

Some 20 funds investing internationally were launched last year, not because there was a significant pick-up in demand but simply because regulators began to approve new QDII quota for mutual funds in the belief that investors needed to diversify.

中国去年推出了大约20只海外投资基金,但这不是因为需求显著上升,而只是因为监管机构相信投资者应当分散投资,于是重新启动了对共同基金新QDII配额的审批。

According to Z-Ben Advisors, a consultant, these funds raised an average Rmb600m each – well short of the original fund launches back in 2006. Many subsequently saw significant outflows, raising further doubt that underlying investor appetite had returned.

据咨奔商务咨询(Z-Ben Advisors)称,这些基金平均每只募资6亿元人民币——远低于2006年最早一批基金的募资水平。许多基金随后出现资金大量流失的现象,让市场进一步对投资者的根本胃口是否已经恢复产生了怀疑。

Ironically, in China, given the impatience shown internationally over the pace of renminbi appreciation, a belief that the currency would appreciate against other international currencies reinforced an already cautious approach to the new QDII funds. And memories of 2008 were still too fresh in investors’ minds.

具有讽刺意味的是,在中国,鉴于国际社会表现得对人民币的升值步伐已失去耐心,相信人民币将对其它国际货币升值的想法,加强了市场本就对新QDII基金采取的谨慎态度。而且投资者对2008年的情形仍然记忆犹新。

The China Securities Regulatory Commission expects another 10 such funds investing internationally to be launched this year, and the successful introduction of the gold fund will encourage other managers to participate. However, international managers hoping to take advantage of any increase in demand for QDII funds should be aware that domestic fund management companies are looking to develop expertise to manage international funds themselves. Managers hoping for a repeat of 2006 are likely to be disappointed.

中国证监会预计,今年还将有10只此类海外投资基金问世,而黄金基金的成功推出也将鼓励其它基金公司加入进来。不过,希望利用QDII基金需求增长的国际基金公司应该清楚,中国本土基金管理公司正期望发展相关专业技能,由自己来管理海外投资基金。希望2006年的一幕重演的基金公司可能要失望了。

Whether mutual funds see better sales this year will largely depend on whether economic policy is successful in stabilising inflation, which has been fuelled by higher food prices and rising wages.

共同基金今年能否旺销,将主要取决于稳定通胀的经济政策能否成功——食品价格和工资的上涨推高了通胀。

The authorities have responded to the threat of higher inflation by repeatedly raising bank reserve requirements (the latest move on January 14) and by hiking interest rates (the last hike on December 26). However, the People’s Bank of China is cautious about raising interest rates too far for fear of attracting ‘hot money’.

面对通胀上升的威胁,有关政府部门再三提高了银行存款准备金率(最近一次是1月14日),并上调了利率(上一次是在去年12月26日)。然而,中国央行仍然表现得小心翼翼,生怕过度加息会吸引“热钱”流入。

Confronted with higher reserve requirements, banks are likely to look to fee-based income to offset the effects of lower lending. Mutual fund launches are likely to be a focus as a result.

面对更高的存款准备金要求,各银行可能会寻求以费用类收入来抵消放贷减少的影响。共同基金的推出因此可能会受到关注。

Funds investing domestically will need to overcome the poor performance of the Shanghai stock market, which was down 11 per cent last year, underperforming most international markets. Less money flowed to the stock market in 2010 as government measures to curb speculation in the property market were introduced. While the stock market has suffered, the property market has continued to rise and attract savings.

投资于国内的基金必须克服上海股市的糟糕表现。上证综指去年下跌11%,比大多数国际股市的表现都差。由于政府出台了遏制房地产市场投机的措施,2010年流入股市的资金有所减少。尽管股市受挫,房地产市场却在继续上涨,吸引居民储蓄。

Another factor hurting stock market performance in 2010 was the effect of “unlocking” shares. As part of the stock market reforms introduced in 2005, certain stocks were prevented from trading for a period, with a planned gradual release over time.

另一个影响2010年股市表现的因素是非流通股的解禁。在2005年的股改中,部分股票在一段时期内被禁止上市交易,而是将计划逐步推向市场。

These restrictions are being lifted and last year Rmb5,200bn worth of shares was released, suppressing prices further.

这些限制正在一步步解除,去年有价值5.2万亿元人民币的非流通股解禁,进一步压制了股价。

In 2011 another Rmb2,200bn worth is due to be unlocked, and it is hoped the substantial reduction in supply will enable the stock market to make progress.

2011年还将有价值2.2万亿元人民币的非流通股解禁,市场希望,供给的大幅缩减能够让股市有所起色。

Mark Konyn is chief executive of RCM Asia Pacific, a company of Allianz Global Investors

本文作者是德盛安联资产管理(Allianz Global Investors)旗下RCM Asia Pacific的行政总裁。

 

译者/何黎